The defeat of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP in last Saturday’s governorship election Edo State was largely predicted on the internal rancour that bedevilled the state chapter of the party.

Senator Monday Okpebholo, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC defeated the PDP’s candidate, Asue Ighodalo by 291,667 votes to 247,274 votes. The Labour Party’s candidate, Olumide Akpata came a distant third with 22,763 votes.

For a state that had been ruled by the PDP the election was seen as a referendum on the outgoing administration headed by Governor Godwin Obaseki. The referendum boiled down to delivery of good governance and management of human relationships.

In both respects, the PDP entered the election on a negative.

The election was held on a rainy day that clearly demonstrated the government’s failure in road infrastructure.

It would be recalled that election materials were late to arrive because of the rains which prevented vehicular movements largely on account of the bad roads that have emerged in many areas of the state.

So, for many voters the visible impact of bad roads was a reflection of their bad review of the Obaseki years in governance. Without reference to the promises of the PDP candidate, it was the suggestion of many that so long as the PDP candidate was riding on the support of Obaseki that he would continue on that trajectory.

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However, even more than the visible impact of road infrastructure was the poor management of human relations which made Obaseki to be a loner on election day.

That figure of political loneliness was captured during the collation of election results at the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC headquarters in Benin when the governor drove alone to complain about the alleged manipulation of figures.

Commenting on the development, Obaseki’s deputy, Mr Philip Shaibu, who is estranged from him said that the governor need not have done that were it not for his loneliness.
“We were the ones who used to do all such things for him. He need not have gone to INEC office by himself,” Shaibu said on Arise Television on Tuesday.

That claim of loneliness was largely reflected in the way the governor reportedly pushed aside those who backed him to power who crystallised into the Legacy Group.

After he was pushed away from the APC in June 2020, Obaseki was welcomed into the PDP with mixed feelings. Omoregie Ogbeide-Ihama who was on a roller-coaster to win the PDP governorship ticket was made promises including a senate ticket which never came to pass.

The party which had Chief Dan Orbih, the national vice-chairman, South South as leader gave him every support. Orbih became campaign manager and mounted the rostrum every where in Edo State to pave victory for Obaseki in 2020.

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Following the victory, Obaseki took more than 11 months to constitute his cabinet. In that time he ran the government with the two former APC members he brought with him to government; his deputy, Shaibu and the Secretary to the State Government, Osarodion Ogie.

Mutters began to be expressed by the PDP members who thought that having sacrificed the two top positions in government that Obaseki will reward them. But no. The governor’s response was that the PDP should dissolve its structures across the state so that he would appoint those who came with him from the APC into the PDP structures.

The PDP members firmly rebuffed him. That was the beginning of the crisis. Many PDP members told him to go with his government and that they would hold their party.

Dr Tony Aziegbemi, the chairman of the state chapter of the party was at one time suspended and recalled as the crisis grew.

As the crisis grew, Obaseki summoned some party leaders who were differential to him and senior government officials on October 11, 2021 where he announced the suspension of Orbih, Ogbeide-Ihama among others he defined as trouble makers.

“I will not leave PDP. I am the leader of PDP and by the grace of God I will lead PDP well. Any body that doesn’t want me to lead or want to accept my leadership will leave PDP for me,” he said on that day.

That was seen as the last straw on the camel’s back by many. It was following this that Orbih who had held the party for more than a 15 years before Obaseki began separating with him.

Orbih started coalescing the old PDP members and eventually became known as the Legacy PDP. With the power of incumbency, the group despite having the majority of supporters in the state executive lost the recognition of the national leadership of the party who ceded party tickets in the 2023 election to the candidates’ slate presented by Obaseki.

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The Legacy Group kept away from the 2023 General Election, and where not, supported others against their party leading to the humiliating defeat of the PDP in the presidential and National Assembly elections.

It was the first time that the PDP would lose the National Assembly elections in Edo State as the party did not win a single Senate seat. Indeed, even with Adams Oshiomhole as governor the PDP was able to show muscle in national assembly elections getting the majority of seats.

The National Assembly election results in 2023 forced Obaseki on a save my life crusade ahead of the State House of Assembly election. His motif was to insinuate that a defeat for the PDP would lead to the emergence of an APC House that would be dominated by Adams Oshiomhole.

It was a trick that worked somewhat. The PDP eventually won control of the House of Assembly in March 2023. That House of Assembly victory perhaps gave Obaseki the confidence that he could still muscle his way through in the governorship election. Though he tried to make peace with Orbih but the effort was not seen as convincing enough.

For example for the first time Obaseki showed up at the traditional Christmas party hosted by Orbih at his Ogbona country home to identify with him last December. But many saw it as a move by the governor to buy over those he had consistently derided as dead woods.

When Asue Ighodalo emerged as candidate, the governor against the advice of Legacy PDP members and others insisted on foisting Osarodion Ogie, seen as one of his surrogates who came with him from the APC as the running mate.

It meant that for two election circles that the original PDP would not have any of its own on the ticket of the party.

Obaseki’s fate was worsened by the way he managed the PDP primary which led almost all of the 10 other aspirants who vied for the ticket with Ighodalo to take position against their party. Though Orbih was not visible in the public face of marshalling the opposition, he nevertheless was believed to have been the fulcrum around with the opposition by the PDP Legacy members vented out their frustration.

Obaseki it would be said helped to bring diverse foes together to stop what many of them saw as a third term for himself. The result was the bruising defeat of the PDP which on election day did not have the ground commanders to protect the votes the party claimed to have polled.

Chief Hilary Otsu is a Political Analyst.