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Amid Rising Debt, Subsidy Cost Jumps By 370%

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The cost of fuel subsidy is estimated to increase by 369.93 per cent from 2021 to 2023, according to The PUNCH.

In 2021, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation said fuel subsidy gulped N1.43tn, although there was no record for under-recovery in January.

The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, had said on Thursday at the presentation of the 2023-2035 Medium Term Expenditure Framework & Fiscal Strategy Paper in Abuja that the Federal Government had projected to spend N6.72tn on petrol subsidy payments in 2023.

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However, Ahmed said subsidy payment projection was based on two scenarios, with the first being spending an estimated N6.72tn for the entire year and the second, removing subsidy by June 2023 with the government spending N3.36tn rather than the full estimated N6.72tn.

READ ALSO: Debt Servicing May Take All Of Nigeria’s Revenue By 2026, IMF Warns

She further noted that both scenarios had implications for net accretion to the federation account and projected deficit levels.

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In January this year, the Federal Government decided to retain the controversial fuel subsidy for another 18 months following threats of protests by the Nigerian Labour Congress and other interest groups.

The International Monetary Fund recently said the fear of political resistance, widespread corruption and pressure from interested groups were hampering the removal of the fuel subsidy in Nigeria.

In the first five months, Nigeria spent N1.27tn on petrol subsidy, with a plan to spend N4tn this year.

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It was also disclosed that Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited would continue to fund the N4.19tn fuel subsidies for the 2022 fiscal year on behalf of the federation despite being a commercial venture and its stance of no longer remitting any money to the Federation Accounts Allocation Committee for sharing to the three tiers of government monthly.

The increasing cost of fuel subsidy is projected to persist amid declining revenues and rising debts.

According to a recent report, the FAAC allocation to the federal, state and local governments declined to 2.18tn between January and March 2022 when compared to the N2.24tn disbursed in the preceding quarter, Q4 2021.

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The Debt Management Office recently disclosed that Nigeria’s total public debt stock increased to N41.60tn in the first quarter of 2022 from N39.56tn as of December 2021, showing an increase of N2.04tn within a period of three months.

During the presentation of the MTEF and FSP paper, the finance minister disclosed that the cost of servicing debt surpassed the Federal Government’s retained revenue by N310bn in the first four months of 2022..

It was disclosed the Federal Government’s total revenue for the period was N1.63tn, while debt service gulped N1.94tn.

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The IMF has also said that Nigeria will likely depend on overdrafts from the Central Bank of Nigeria to fund its proposed petrol subsidy bill.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s Debt Set To Hit N45trn As Plan To Borrow Additional N6.39trn Emerges

The finance minister has also said that Federal Government was planning to tap €2bn ($2.2bn) of the money it raised in a Eurobond sale last year and targets more local borrowing in 2022 to help fund fuel subsidy.

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The World Bank recently warned that increasing fuel subsidy puts the Nigerian economy at a high risk as subsidy payments could significantly impact public finance and pose debt sustainability concerns.

 

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KPMG Flags Five Major ‘Errors’ In Nigerian Tax Laws

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Fresh apprehension has surfaced over Nigeria’s newly implemented tax framework after KPMG Nigeria highlighted what it described as “errors, inconsistencies, gaps, and omissions” in the new tax laws that took effect on January 1, 2026. The professional services firm in a recent statement cautioned that failure to address these issues could weaken the overall objectives of the tax reforms.

Nigeria’s tax overhaul is built around four major legislations: the Nigeinpieces of legislation:ria Tax Act (NTA), the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) Establishment Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (JRB) Establishment Act. The laws were signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in June 2025 and formally commenced in 2026. However, the reforms have continued to attract controversy since they were first introduced in October 2024.

Despite the concerns, government officials have consistently described the reforms as essential to improving Nigeria’s low tax-to-GDP ratio and modernisingpieces of legislation:modernizing the country’s tax system in line with evolving economic conditions.

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In a detailed review, KPMG outlined several areas of concern.

Capital gains, inflation modernizing inflation and market response

KPMG flagged Sections 39 and 40 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which require capital gains to be calculated as the difference between sale proceeds and the tax-written-down value of assets, without adjusting for inflation. According to the firm, this approach is problematic given Nigeria’s prolonged high-inflation environment.

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Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that headline inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive years, averaging over 18 percent between 2022 and 2025. Over the same period, asset prices have been significantly influenced by currency depreciation and general price increases.

READ ALSO:How To Calculate Your Taxable Income

Market data also reflects investor sensitivity to tax policy changes. Although the NGX All-Share Index gained more than 50 percent over the year and market capitalisation inflation,capitalization approached N99.4 trillion, equities experienced sharp sell-offs in late 2025. In November alone, market value reportedly declined by about N6.5 trillion amid uncertainty surrounding the new capital gains tax regime.

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KPMG warned that taxing nominal gains in such an environment could result in investors paying tax on inflation-driven increases rather than real economic gains. The firm recommended introducing a cost indexation mechanism to adjust asset values for inflation, noting that this would reduce distortions while still enabling the government to earn revenue from genuine capital appreciation.

Indirect transfers and foreign investment concerns

Attention was also drawn to Section 47 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which subjects gains from indirect transfers by non-residents to Nigerian tax where the transactions affect ownership of Nigerian companies or assets.

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This provision comes at a time of subdued foreign investment. Figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indicate that foreign direct investment inflows into Nigeria remain below pre-2019 levels, reflecting ongoing investor caution.

READ ALSO:UK Supported US Mission To Seize Russian-flagged Oil Tanker – Defense Ministry

While similar rules exist in other countries, KPMG noted that they are often supported by detailed guidance and clear thresholds. The firm advised Nigerian tax authorities to issue comprehensive administrative guidelines to clarify scope, thresholds,capitalizationthresholds, and reporting obligations inorder to reduce disputes and limit potential negative effects on foreign investment.

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Foreign exchange deductions and business impact

Another issue identified relates to Section 24 of the Act, which restricts businesses from deducting foreign-currencyforeign currency expenses beyond their naira equivalent at the official Central Bank of Nigeria exchange rate.

In reality, limited access to official foreign exchange forces many companies to source FX at higher parallel market rates. Under the current rule, the additional cost becomes non-deductible, effectively increasing taxable profits and overall tax liabilities.

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KPMG observed that although the provision aims to discourage FX speculation, it does not adequately reflect supply constraints. The firm recommended allowing deductions based on actual costs incurred, provided transactions are properly documented, to avoid penalisingforeign currencypenalizing businesses for factors outside their control.

READ ALSO:UK Supported US Mission To Seize Russian-flagged Oil Tanker – Defense Ministry

VAT-related expense disallowances

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Section 21(p) of the Nigeria Tax Act also came under scrutiny for disallowing deductions on expenses where VAT was not charged, even if the costs were entirely business-related.

Given Nigeria’s large informal sector and persistent VAT compliance gaps, analysts argue that the rule unfairly shifts part of the VAT enforcement burden onto compliant taxpayers. KPMG advised that the provision be removed or significantly amended, stressing that expense deductibility should be based on whether costs were wholly and necessarily incurred for business, while VAT compliance should be enforced directly on defaulting suppliers.

Non-resident taxation uncertainties

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KPMG further highlighted ambiguities around the compliance obligations of non-resident companies. While the Nigeria Tax Act recognizespenalizingrecognizes withholding tax as the finalthe final tax for certain nonresident payments in the absence of a permanent establishment or significant economic presence, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act does not clearly exempt such entities from registration and filing requirements.

Nigeria’s network of double taxation treaties, including agreements with the UK, South Africa, Canada, and France, generally supports the principle that final withholding tax extinguishes further obligations. Experts warn that inconsistencies between the laws could create uncertainty and discourage foreign participation.

READ ALSO:Tax Reform Law: Reps Minority Caucus Seeks Suspension Of Implementation

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KPMG recommended harmonizing the relevant provisions of the NTA and NTAA, with explicit exemptions for non-resident companies whose tax obligations have been fully settled through withholding tax. The firm noted that such alignment would ease compliance and enhance Nigeria’s appeal for cross-border transactions.

As Nigeria undertakes its most extensive tax reform in decades, KPMG concluded that the success of the overhaul will depend on clarity, consistency, and alignment with international best practices. Without timely amendments, businesses may face higher costs, foreign investors could remain cautious, and capital markets may continue to experience volatility.

Recall that KPMG concerns come after a lawmaker, Abdulsamman Dasuki, raised alarm over alleged alterations to the gazetted tax laws.
(DAILY POST)

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Naira Records First Depreciation Against US Dollar In 2026

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The Naira recorded its first depreciation against the United States dollar in the official foreign exchange market on Thursday, the first time in 2026 so far.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s data showed that it weakened on Thursday after days of gains to N 1,419.72 per dollar, down from N 1,418.26 on Wednesday.

This means that for the first time this year, the Naira dipped by N1.46 against the dollar on a day-to-day basis.

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READ ALSO:Naira Continues Gain Against US Dollar As Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Climb To $45.57bn

Similarly, the Naira also depreciated by N10 at the black market to N1,490 on Thursday, down from the N1,480 recorded the previous day.

This comes despite the continued rise in the country’s foreign reserves to $45.64 billion as of Wednesday, 7th January 2026.

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DAILY POST reports that the Naira recorded a seven-day bullish run at the official foreign exchange before Thursday’s decline.

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14 Nigerian Banks Yet To Meet CBN’s Recapitalization Deadline [FULL LIST]

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With barely eleven weeks to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) recapitalisation deadline, fourteen banks are yet to meet the requirement.

This comes as DAILY POST reports that 19 Nigerian banks had met the apex bank’s recapitalisation requirements as of January 6, 2025.

The banks that have complied with the CBN’s minimum capital benchmark include Access Bank, Fidelity Bank, First Bank, GTBank (GTCO), UBA, Zenith Bank, and twelve others.

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READ ALSO:CBN Revokes Licences Of Aso Savings, Union Homes As NDIC Begins Deposit Payments

However, as of the time of filing this report, fourteen Nigerian banks are yet to comply.

The banks that have not met the apex bank’s recapitalisation requirement include First City Monument Bank (FCMB), Unity Bank, Keystone Bank, Union Bank (Titan), Taj Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Parallex Bank, and SunTrust Bank.

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Others are FBH Merchant Bank, Rand Merchant Bank, Coronation Merchant Bank, Alternative Bank, and other non-interest banks.

Meanwhile, financial experts have predicted possible mergers and acquisitions ahead of the March 31 deadline.

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