Business

Nigeria’s Budget 2022 And Debt Service Implication [ANALYSIS]

Published

4 years ago

November 9, 2021

Richard Asoge

In compliance with the section 81 of the 1999 Nigeria Constitution as amended, the President of Federal Republic of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, on October 7, 2021 laid before the National Assembly 2022 budget estimate for the country. Bringing it about three months before the implementation begins creates room for thorough dissecting and as well inviting all critical stakeholders which include ministries, departments and agencies on their take.

The year 2022 drafted budget is N16.39 trillion. Recurrent expenditure without debt service and capital expenditure is respectively to gulp N6.83 trillion and N4.89 trillion. Furthermore, debt service is to take a chunk of N3.9 trillion while statutory transfer is to take the sum of N768.28 billion. Breaking it down to a common man language, of every one hundred naira the country intends to spend in the coming year, about N24 goes on debt services to various organizations, institutions or countries which in the time past, Nigeria had obtained loans. As at August 2021, the records of Debt Management Office showed that Nigeria owed about N35 trillion to internal and external bodies. The country is enmeshed in debt. As if the damage was not enough, we are still asking for more loans like ‘Oliver Twist’. Of course, there is nothing wrong in obtaining a loan to finance a project if it is viable enough in the medium or long term to generate fund to pay the principal with the interest, or such project is capable of improving the living standard of the people. If the latter is the case, tax can be introduced to recoup the investment made on the project. Both debt service and direct statutory transfer are priority for settlement. The more the allocation for these headings in the given sum, the lower the fund available for developmental projects and other government financial responsibilities. It is time for us to think out of the box rather than go for loan or aid at every slight opportunity.

Considering the expected income in the year mainly from oil receipt, VAT and other sources, the total proposed expenditure is far more than that of income which gives room for about N6.26 trillion deficits. In other words, the country is expected to generate N10.21 trillion from various sources of income and borrow the balance. Of this shortfall, N5 trillion is expected to be sourced domestically, N1.2 trillion is to come via drawings from bilateral and multilateral loans while over N90 billion expected from the proceeds of privatization.

Oil receipt which is the largest source of income is benchmarked at $57 per barrel with 1.88 million barrel per day at official exchange rate of $410.15. The parameter used here is good and is more of the conservative side. Past records showed that Nigeria produced over 2 million barrel per day. If all things being equal, the figure will be attained easily and beyond. After a worldwide decline in the spate of COVID-19 spread, global oil market has rebounded and still rebounding. This manifested in the current oil price hovering between $80 and $84 per barrel in the international market. This implies that excess is expected from this sub-heading of the budget.

In the 2022 proposed budget, inflation is anchored within the threshold of 13%. This is a dream taken too far. The present situation of things in Nigeria does not indicate serious crashing in the prices of goods and services from the currently 18% to average of 13% in the coming year. If the statement credited to the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Dr Zainab Ahmed, while given comprehensive analysis of the said budget that subsidy will be removed from fuel and electricity by the mid next year is enforced, then inflation will go far beyond the estimate of 13%. However, if all necessary supports were given to the local refineries (the existing government refineries and the upcoming private refineries) to operate to a reasonable capacity, removal of subsidy will not have substantial effects on the prices of goods and services but save already declined foreign exchange from going down deeper.

The beauty of any budget lies in its implementation or performance. Evidence from past years showed that revenue performance was always low to the expectation. This made implementation difficult. For instance, in year 2020, the proposed revenue was N5.37 trillion while the actual revenue attained for the year was N3.42 trillion. This was a variance of 36.3%. You may say COVID-19 caused. To me, that is not a strong defence. There had been similar trends over the years. In 2018 when there was nothing like COVID-19, projected revenue was N7.12 trillion while the actual revenue attained was N3.48 trillion given a variance of 51.1%. Justification of various spending and cutting down on the allowances and benefits of the political office holders will close the gap between the proposed expenditure and revenue.

It is very clear that development of any nation is proportional to the financial and other commitments made to research and development. Commitment and funding of research institutions in various areas of human endeavor give a nation an insight of what the future holds and makes preparation for it. This is the magic wand of the developed economies in the world.

Richard Asoge
Clappahouse Analytics
chards001@gmail.com
O8081492614.

Business

Naira Continues To Appreciate Against Dollar On Official Market

Published

2 days ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The naira continued its appreciation against the dollar at the foreign exchange market on Tuesday.

Accordingly, the naira strengthened further to N1,533.18 against the dollar on Tuesday, from N1,534.21 traded the previous day.

This represents a gain of N1.03 against the dollar on a day-to-day basis and marks the second consecutive day of appreciation at the official FX market.

Meanwhile, on the black market, the naira depreciated further to N1,545 per dollar on Tuesday from N1,537 traded on Monday.

Recall that the naira had similarly closed Monday’s trading session with mixed sentiments, recording gains at the official market but depreciating at the parallel market.

Business

Dangote Refinery Gets New CEO

Published

2 days ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has appointed David Bird, the former head of Oman’s Duqm Refinery, as its new Chief Executive Officer.

A report by S&P global on Friday said, Bird heads the refinery’s petroleum and petrochemicals division in a strategic move to overcome production challenges and advance its next wave of expansion.

Effective from July 2025, the former Shell head of operations at its Balau Pokom refinery stepped in as CEO of the Dangote Group’s fuels and petrochemicals business, which commissioned the world’s largest single-train refinery last year.

Our correspondent also observed that the CEO participated at the just concluded Dangote Leadership Development Program Graduation Ceremony.

The appointment signals the company’s renewed focus on scaling production, streamlining operations, and positioning itself as a dominant force in Africa’s refining and petrochemical landscape.

The report read, “Nigeria’s Dangote Group has appointed the former head of Oman’s Duqm refinery as CEO of its petroleum and petrochemicals business as it strives to overcome production challenges and advance its next wave of expansion.”

It, however, noted that the Dangote Group founder Aliko Dangote, will remain as chairman of the refining business and CEO of the wider conglomerate, which is also active in cement, fertilizers and sugar refining.

The business is expected to tap Bird’s experience expanding the Duqm refinery and diversifying its crude slate as CEO of OQ8, a role he adopted months before the Omani complex began its first test runs in 2023.

Commenting on his appointment, Bird said his focus at Dangote will involve advancing the group’s footprint beyond the Nigerian market and across the African continent.

As CEO of the refining business, he will be responsible for ensuring maximum output and efficiency for the refinery, and aims to make the group a leader in the global market, a LinkedIn update noted.

The appointment comes after a string of unit upsets and “design issues” that have stalled the ramp-up process of the 650,000-b/d refinery, while its leadership has called out a hostile business environment for challenging its operations.

Since it was commissioned in January 2024, Dangote has quickly grown its market share in the Nigerian fuel sector, displacing large volumes of gasoline imports that the country once relied on.

However, Aliko Dangote has railed against “rent-seeking” trade partners and substandard fuel imports for putting strain on the business.

In a previous interview with Platts, Bird emphasised a trading-led approach to achieve a competitive edge in the refining sector, with a focus on high utilisation rates, efficiency and feedstock flexibility.

His approach aligns with a recent shift from the Dangote complex to process a wider range of crude grades, partially spurred by limited availability of the Nigerian oil it was designed to process.

However, the Nigerian refinery is still obliged to sell fixed volumes of its oil products into the domestic crude market under a naira-based trade agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, a 7.2 per cent stakeholder in the business.

As the Dangote Group eyes its next wave of growth, it plans to expand the capacity of the Lagos refinery to 700,000 barrels per day, build out port infrastructure and establish foreign storage assets in Namibia and other countries.

In August, it is set to roll out its own distribution business with a fleet of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks.

Dangote Group officials have also shared ambitions to list the refining business on the London and Lagos stock exchanges, and Aliko Dangote reiterated plans to take the business public.

After years of setbacks and budget challenges, the speed of the refinery’s ramp-up in 2024 caught many analysts by surprise, and the complex quickly began exerting pressure on global oil benchmarks as it began exporting its products.

Yet despite beginning test runs on its main gasoline outlet, the residue fluid catalytic cracker, in Q3 2024, the company has since suffered repeated outages on the unit in 2025, forcing it to rely on its lower-yield reformer and sacrifice output over extended periods.

Speaking to Platts earlier in July, a Dangote executive said the RFCC was running at 85 per cent. He denied reports that the company will undergo a planned turnaround on the unit in December.

According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, Nigeria exported some 220,000 b/d of petroleum products in July 2025, when outages at NNPC facilities made Dangote the country’s only active refiner.

The complex exported 30,000 b/d of residual fuel, a refining byproduct which would normally be kept on site for further processing in the RFCC under normal operations.

Exports continue to be dominated by jet fuel, which accounted for 45 per cent of total shipments, and gasoil with a 24 per cent share.

Business

Petrol Tankers To Stop Loading Beyond 45,000 Litres By October 1 – IPMAN

Published

2 days ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The Western Zone of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria has said tankers will no longer load more than 45,000 litres of the product from October 1.

The Chairman of the zone, Chief Oyewole Akanni, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria in Ibadan on Friday.

Akanni stated that the measure was adopted in a joint meeting involving IPMAN, the government and other stakeholders, held to reduce the cases of petroleum tanker accidents.

The stakeholders, he said, are the Petroleum Tanker Drivers, Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority and oil marketers.

He said, “Before now, some tankers carried up to 90,000 or 60,000 litres, which was dangerous.

“Those big tankers damage our roads, as the trucks are made to carry far more than they were designed for.

“And when overloaded, they become unstable and fall, causing accidents.”

Akanni stated that the government had also mandated all tankers to install safety covers that prevent spillage in the event of a crash.

“With these covers, even if a tanker falls, fuel won’t spill, except if the tank is punctured,” he said.

He, however, lamented the activities of vandals, who deliberately puncture fallen tankers to steal fuel, describing it as a major challenge.

The IPMAN chairman also said that PTD discovered that most accidents occurred at night due to fatigue.

“We have, therefore, instructed drivers not to drive at night.

“Once it is 7.00 p.m., they must park and continue their journey by 7.00 a.m. the next day, but some still disobey this directive,” he said.

Akanni assured that IPMAN would continue to work with stakeholders to ensure that tanker-related accidents were minimised.

He said that the spate of fatalities had triggered federal interventions, calling for stricter regulations, mass education, and enforced safety reforms.

According to Akanni, the incidents form part of a broader wave of tanker disasters across Nigeria.

“These are marked by systemic failures, including overloading, poor infrastructure, inadequate enforcement, alongside dangerous public practices like fuel scooping,” he said.

NAN