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Cash-induced Recession Imminent, Experts Warn As Naira Scarcity Persists

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As the naira scarcity lingers with its attendant effect on Nigerians, financial experts have warned that the country may slip into a cash-induced recession.

For many Nigerians, the currency scarcity hardship has become a nightmare without an end.

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Accessing cash is now a miracle everyone desires. Some commercial banks’ Automated Teller Machines have turned into graveyards due to the non-availability of money, a situation some Point of Sales agents have taken to their advantage by charging outrageous fees.

February 10 was earmarked as a deadline by the Central Bank of Nigeria to phase out the old Naira notes. However, the Supreme Court, in an ex parte order, stopped the CBN from implementing the deadline pending a substantive hearing on Wednesday.

READ ALSO: Tinubu Lists Six Ways To End New Naira Woes

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The development compounded the currency crisis for many Nigerians as some traders are in limbo on whether to accept or reject the old naira notes.

The Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, continues to run from pillar to post looking for a solution, the crisis lingers.

On Monday, Emefiele was reported to have met with President Muhammadu Buhari for the third time since the currency crisis started.

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Despite assurance from the CBN and Buhari on the availability of the new Naira notes, the effect of its scarcity bites harder, with rural dwellers resorting to trade by barter and the currency of neighbouring countries for transactions.

Network failure and unsuccessful transactions have marred alternative banking platforms, especially the USSD.

In a chat with DAILY POST on Monday, a Financial Inclusion/Wealth Management expert, Mr Idakolo Gbolade disclosed that the country risks a real cash-induced recession because its economy mainly depends on cash.

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“The risk of a cash-induced recession is real because our economy is still largely cash-based and the cost of food items being reduced due to low patronage and even in many occasions no patronage.

READ ALSO: Naira Redesign: CBN Policy Disastrous, Catholic Bishops Tell Buhari Govt

“Nigerians spend long hours in the queue in the banks and ATMs. Many hours that should have been used for productive ventures to oil the economy, billions are being lost daily as the cash crunch bites harder.

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“The amount of cash in circulation presently cannot aid an effective business cycle in the economy. If these pressures continue, we could witness a cash drought aided by the CBN. The consequences of allowing these cash shortages to continue are dire for the economy, and with inflation already high, the recession is imminent.

“I want Nigerians to be proactive and embrace alternatives to cash since the government is trying to fast-track cashless policies without a solid network backbone to aid seamless banking.

“We should also put pressure on the government to reduce the hardship this policy is causing the ordinary Nigerians by ensuring we vote for the right candidate that can lessen these burdens on the people”, he stated.

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Also, a Professor of Management and Accounting at Lead City University, Ibadan, Godwin Oyedokun said the currency crisis is a self-inflicted plague.

He stated that commercial banks’ and saboteurs’ attitude had succeeded in making the CBN’s Naira redesign cumbersome.

“The issue of scarcity of Naira is now getting beyond any theory because I want to believe that the problem is a self-inflicted plague.

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“POS making outrageous profits from charges showed that the policy has created more problems for Nigerians.

“Solve the problem of scarcity of cash, every other thing will fall in place, but with the attitude of those in authority, mainly commercial banks, they have succeeded in making a mockery of the policy.

“The CBN is advised to wake up to its responsibility. I had said it before when the CBN said it had dispensed enough money to banks, it should make public the list of the banks and amount disbursed.

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“Compel the banks also to account for the money to avoid hoarding.

“I know when the court resumes hearing, it would consider the issue of jurisdiction and rule on it before a substantive case would commence.

“Let’s see how it will pan out with the Supreme Court because legal luminaries have divergent views,” he added.

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Also speaking, Malachy Ugwumadu, a human rights lawyer and past national president of the Committee for Defense of Human Rights, CDHR, disclosed that while Nigerians await a Supreme Court ruling on Naira redesign, the new and old naira notes can continue to exist.

Ugwumadu made this disclosure during an Arise Television interview on Monday.

“With the Supreme Court ruling, the old and the new notes can continue to exist as legal tender in Nigeria pending the determination of the matter.

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“It would be contemptuous if the CBN and the Federal government give further directives contrary to the existing ex parte order”, he stated.

The Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Dr Muda Yusuf, urged the CBN to comply with the Supreme Court’s order.

READ ALSO: CBN Lists Money Bouquet As Naira Abuse

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“The restraining order by the Supreme Court on this matter is unambiguous. What I expect is for the CBN to comply with this order. Failure to do so could amount to contempt of court. If the order had been obeyed, the currency crisis would have eased considerably”, he stated.

Earlier, the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, NGF, warned that the nationwide cash crunch could result in a CBN-induced recession.

In all this dilemma, Nigerians have remained resilient, even amidst suffering, earnestly seeking solutions from the Federal Government.

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JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Hikes Petrol Ex-depot Price

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Nigerians may soon pay more for petrol as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Friday increased its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit to N880 per litre, raising fresh concerns over fuel affordability and price volatility in the downstream sector.

Checks on petroleumprice.ng, a platform tracking daily product prices, and a Pro Forma Invoice seen by The PUNCH confirmed the hike, representing a N55 increase from the previous rate of N825 per litre.

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The increment would ripple across the entire fuel distribution chain, likely pushing pump prices above N900/litre in some parts of the country, especially in areas far from the distribution hubs.

The hike comes despite global crude prices falling. Brent crude dipped by 3.02% to $76.47, WTI fell to $74.93, and Murban dropped to $76.97 on Friday. The decline in benchmarks offers little relief due to persistent fears of sudden supply disruptions.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Sashes Petrol Gantry Price

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The refinery has increased its reliance on imported U.S. crude and operational costs amid exchange rate instability, which adds to its pricing pressure.

On Thursday, the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said his 650,000-barrel capacity refinery is “increasingly” relying on the United States for crude oil.

This came as findings showed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is projected to import a total of 17.65 million barrels of crude oil between April and July 2025, beginning with about 3.65 million barrels already delivered in the past two months, amid ongoing allocations under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy.

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Dangote informed the Technical Committee of the One-Stop Shop for the sale of crude and refined products in naira initiative that the refinery was still battling crude shortages, which had led it to resort to imports from the United States.

READ ALSO:Dangote Stops Petrol Sale In Naira, Gives Condition For Resumption

On Monday, the president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, Festus Osifo, accused oil marketers of exploiting Nigerians through inflated petrol prices, insisting that the current pump price of PMS should range between N700 and N750 per litre.

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He criticised the disparity between falling global crude oil prices and the stagnant retail price of petrol in Nigeria.

“If you go online and check the PLAT cost per cubic metre of PMS, convert that to litres and then to our Naira, you will see that with crude at around $60 per barrel, petrol should be retailing between N700 and N750 per litre.”

He asserted that if Nigerians bear the brunt of higher fuel costs, they should be allowed to enjoy the benefit of low pricing.

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His forecast of increased costs now appears spot on, considering the latest developments.

Marketers are already adjusting. Depot owners and fuel distributors in Lagos and other cities anticipate a domino effect, with new price bands expected to follow Dangote’s lead.

Many had held back pricing decisions since Tuesday, when the refinery halted sales and withheld fresh PFIs. The delay fueled speculation, allowing opportunistic price hikes across various depots.

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Naira Appreciates At Official Market

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The Naira, which has seen steady appreciation against the Dollar all week, closed stronger on Friday, trading at ₦1,580.44 in the official forex market.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website show the Naira gained ₦4.51k against the Dollar on Friday alone.

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This marks a 0.28 per cent appreciation from Thursday’s closing rate of ₦1,584.95 in the official foreign exchange window.

The local currency maintained consistent strength throughout the week, recording gains daily.

READ ALSO: Naira Appreciates Against Dollar At Foreign Exchange Market

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On Monday, May 19, it traded at ₦1,598.68; on Tuesday, at ₦1,590.45; and on Wednesday, at ₦1,584.49.

These gains suggest increased investor confidence and improved forex supply, contributing to the naira’s performance.

Meanwhile, the CBN, at its 300th Monetary Policy Committee meeting held Monday and Tuesday, retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5 per cent.

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BREAKING: Again, Dangote Refinery Cuts Petrol Price

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a nationwide reduction in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, with new prices now ranging between ₦875 and ₦905 per litre, depending on location.

The ₦15 per litre cut applies across all regions and partner fuel stations, and was confirmed via an official announcement posted on Dangote Refinery’s social media channels on Thursday.

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Major marketers participating in the new pricing regime include MRS, Ardova, Heyden, Optima Energy, Techno Oil, and Hyde Energy — partners in the distribution of Dangote-refined products.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Sashes Petrol Gantry Price

Under the previous pricing structure, Lagos residents paid ₦890 per litre, while prices reached ₦920 in the North-East and South-South regions. With the latest adjustment, Lagos now pays ₦875 per litre, while the North-East and South-South will see prices drop to ₦905.

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A regional breakdown of the revised prices is as follows: Lagos: ₦875, South-West: ₦885, North-West & Central: ₦895, North-East & South-South: ₦905 and South-East: ₦905.

In its announcement, Dangote Refinery encouraged consumers to purchase fuel only from authorised partner stations and urged the public to report any cases of non-compliance via its official hotlines: +234 707 470 2099 and +234 707 470 2100.

“Our quality petrol and diesel are refined for better engine performance and are environmentally friendly,” the company said.

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