Business
CBN May Lose Control Of The Naira
Published
2 years agoon
By
Editor
While the government appeared distracted with the coup in Niger Republic, the naira plunged further in the foreign exchange markets last week, exchanging at a record high of N955 to US$1 on Thursday, and spreading panic through the business community and apprehension among Nigerians. President Bola Tinubu and the Central Bank of Nigeria need to move fast, creatively, and pragmatically to avoid losing control of the currency and the economy.
The omens are bad. Since Tinubu pushed the CBN to merge the exchange rates two months ago, the naira’s southward descent has accelerated. The twin goals of facilitating a “realistic” rate, and eliminating the wide arbitrage gap created between official rates and informal market rates have remained elusive. At the official exchange rate of N767.76/$, the gap, and hence, room for illegal arbitrage, raced from N100/$ towards N200/$.
Absent an economic management team, direction, or cabinet, and no accompanying reforms of the regulatory agencies, all colliding with high inflation and business contraction, the naira is on track to crest the N1,000/$ mark and beyond soon, raising real fears that the CBN could lose control with dire consequences. The IMF added to the anxiety last week, saying existing “loose fiscal and monetary policies” make it difficult for the naira to stabilise.
READ ALSO: Naira Slides Further As Dollar Shortage Hits Banks
Wale Edun, Tinubu’s longtime economic adviser and ministerial nominee, signposted N700/$ as the realistic rate, saying the higher rates are not backed by the fundamentals of the economy. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecast of a N1,000/$ rate up till 2027 now appear overly optimistic. Things could get really nasty well before then.
This is not surprising. Supply is constrained by low non-oil export earnings. Demand is artificial, driven by speculators and hoarders, and massive, unchecked money laundering by state and non-state actors. Politicians, public office holders, bandits, kidnappers, and connected contractors, facilitated by lax oversight of the deposit money banks and the bureaux de change, are driving the market with ill-gotten naira, not producers or genuine commercial enterprises.
Tinubu must shift from his unfocussed, ill-planned, and uncoordinated decisions to strategic, well-planned, and comprehensive economic policies. He desperately needs an EMT and more economists and technocrats on board than the motley politicians he has nominated as ministers.
To avoid losing control of the naira and hyperinflation, the CBN should for a few weeks, fund the forex market; next, restrain the BDCs and errant banks from round-tripping and illegal arbitrage. There should be closer collaboration with other regulatory agencies, and the anti-corruption and law enforcement agencies to monitor operators and swiftly and firmly punish infractions and offenders.
READ ALSO: CBN Speaks On Phasing Out Old Naira Notes
An economy battling high unemployment, inflation, production contraction, and dwindling public revenues, needs strong stimulus to achieve recovery. These should target protecting strategic sectors – agricultural production, pharmaceuticals, transportation, and small businesses. Special attention should be paid to SMEs; how to subsidise their power supply, access to low-interest credit, and overthrow crippling taxes and levies.
Hard decisions lie ahead, but should be taken only after rigorous diagnoses and preparation. Shortage of dollars is leaving supply to the market in the hands of black-market operators, thereby effectively subverting the goal of reducing the gap between the official Importers and Exporters window and the parallel market rates. A temporary bolstering of the market to defend the naira for a very short period and funnelled to legitimate businesses is desirable to halt the naira’s downward spiral.
The economy requires very close attention and rigorous planning to avoid a collapse: Tinubu should, going forward, stop taking hasty measures without them.
PUNCH
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Business
NNPCL Reduces Fuel Price After Dangote Refinery’s Adjustment
Published
2 weeks agoon
August 14, 2025By
Editor
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reduced its premium motor spirit pump price on Thursday, according to DAILY POST.
It was confirmed that NNPCL retail outlets in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, have reduced their pump price to N890 per litre from N945.
This new fuel price has been reflected in NNPCL retail outlets such as mega station Danziyal Plaza, Central Area, Wuse Zone 4, Wuse Zone 6, and other of its filling stations in the nation’s capital.
READ ALSO:N5bn Damage: NNPCL Secures Appeal Court Victory Against Ararume
The latest downward review of fuel price in NNPCL outlets represents an N55 reduction in fuel pump price.
“It was reduced to N890 per litre this afternoon, down from N945,” an NNPCL fuel attendant told DAILY POST anonymously on Thursday.
This comes a Nigerian filling station, MRS Empire Energy, on Thursday adjusted their fuel pump price to N885 and N946 per litre, down from N910 and N955 per litre.
The latest fuel price reduction trend is unconnected to Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot petrol price adjustment by N30 to N820 per litre from N850 and the price of crude oil in the international market.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a reduction in the ex-depot (gantry) price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, commonly known as petrol, by N30, from N850 to N820 per litre, effective from August 12, 2025.
This was disclosed in a statement by the company’s spokesman, Anthony Chijiena, on Tuesday.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day plant said the move is part of its unwavering commitment to national development, assuring the public of a consistent and uninterrupted supply of petroleum products.
READ ALSO:Dangote Refinery Gets New CEO
“In line with our dedication to operational excellence and sustainable energy solutions, Dangote Petroleum Refinery will commence the phased deployment of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks for fuel distribution across Nigeria, effective August 15, 2025,” said Chijiena.
The announcement comes as the refinery prepares to commence direct fuel distribution nationwide. The development is expected to lead petroleum product marketers to reduce their pump prices in the coming days.
In Abuja, the retail fuel price stood between N885 and N970 per litre as of Tuesday evening.
Business
Indian Refiners Abandon Russia For Nigerian Crude, As Dangote Refinery Relies On US
Published
3 weeks agoon
August 11, 2025By
Editor
India Refineries have abandoned Russian crude for Nigerian crude, while domestic refiner Dangote Refinery relies heavily on West Texas Intermediate crude from the United States of America.
This followed a recent sanction threat by US president Donald Trump on India over continued patronage of Russian crude.
According to Reuters, industry sources said that Indian Oil Corporation recently bought one million barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude for September 2025 delivery in a tender awarded to global trader Trafigura.
Also included are one million barrels of Angola Girassol, one million barrels of US Mars, three million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban, and two million barrels of Nigerian oil, according to Reuters.
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The report noted that the purchase is part of a broader sourcing spree that has seen Indian refiners secure millions of barrels from non-Russian sources post July 2025.
Meanwhile, Indian refiners secured purchases of Nigerian crude grades; the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, is relying on around 60 percent on US and other imoorts to feed its processing units.
Data showed that the refinery imported an average of 10 million barrels in July 2025, saying it was increasingly relying on the US for its feedstock despite the naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government, which kicked off in October last year.
According to Reuters, the Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have bought a million barrels of non-Russian crude billed for delivery in September and October after the US pressured India to halt purchases from Russia.
READ ALSO:
Indian state refiners had been largely absent from the Nigerian crude market spotlight since 2022; they have in the past concentrated on Russian crude amid the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, the Indian refiners paused Russian purchases in late July 2025 after pressure from US President Donald Trump.
On the part of Dangote Refinery, data from commodities analytics firm Kpler showed that in July, US barrels accounted for about 60 percent of Dangote’s 590,000 barrels per day of crude intake, with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40 percent.
In July, the Dangote refinery’s crude imports surged to a record 590 kbd—driven largely by US barrels overtaking Nigerian supply for the first time—amid ongoing domestic sourcing challenges, Kpler reports.
“While WTI has held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, this is the first time US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply—a shift driven by several factors,” Kpler stated.
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