Headline

Five Factors That May Affect Outcome Of 2023 Presidential Election

Published

3 years ago

February 24, 2023

In a few hours from now, 87,209,007 Nigerians will troop to 176, 606 polling units across the country to elect a new President in a presidential election that marks 24 years of uninterrupted democratic experience in Nigeria.

As of February 5, being the deadline for the collection of the Permanent Voter Cards nationwide, 6,259,229 registered voters did not turn up to collect theirs to qualify to vote.

Indeed, Nigerians are looking at electing the next president who will take over on May 29, 2023 upon the completion of the two tenures of President Muhammadu Buhari.

A breakdown of the total eligible voter figure by states by the Independent National Electoral Commission showed that Lagos State has the highest number of collected PVCs with 6,214,970, followed by Kano State with 5,594,193; Kaduna State, 4,164,473, while Ekiti State has the least with 958,052.

There are 18 candidates from different political parties jostling for the position seat but the top four leading candidates are Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party; Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party.

In this report, The PUNCH critically assesses five major factors that could decide the outcome of tomorrow’s election:

1. Ethnicity and regionalism

From time past, Nigerians have always played the ethnic and regional cards in elections. In fact, it has always been the case of “the person is our son, let him do it”. Not a few Nigerians believe that electing someone from their region or ethnic group will bring massive development to them.

Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, there has been an unwritten law that presidential power should rotate every eight years between the North and South, political leaders are agreed that due to the heterogeneous nature of the country, power rotation arrangement had become necessary to address complaints of marginalisation and domination, and to give equal power to ethnic groups.

Zoning has worked well leading to a seamless transfer of power by former president, Olusegun Obasanjo who ruled for eight years, to Musa Yar’ Adua, a Northerner.

This is what brought about the clamour for ‘Emilokan’ (a terminology indicating that it is the time of Yoruba) by the APC’s candidate who publicly said he supported Buhari to emerge as the President.

The South East is not also backing down in their agitation for the presidency because they believe that they have been sidelined well enough since the return of civil rule in 1999.

It is believed this was what led for the call for secession and the call by the apex socio-cultural group, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, that endorsed the Labour Party’s candidate.

2. Religion

Religion is also an important factor that will determine the outcome of Saturday’s election. Since 1999, there has always been a balance in the selection of President and Vice President of all the parties in power.

For instance, if the presidential candidate is a Muslim, he will ensure to choose a Christian as his running mate.

While the North is predominantly Muslim, the South is predominantly Christian.

This balance was however upset when Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim, chose Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri Muslim and former governor of Borno State, as his running mate.

This action led to widespread condemnation from many Nigerians and Christian bodies.

So, as it stands now, many voters may have to pitch their tent with people of their religious inclination.

3. Possible emergence of third force party

Prior to this dispensation, Nigeria’s political space had been dominated by the PDP until February 2013 when the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, and the All Nigeria Peoples Party along with a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance formed a coalition and established the APC.

The newly formed coalition defeated the incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan thus heralding an era of a two-party dominant state. Saturday’s election however could change the narrative with the LP and NNPP looking towards changing the electoral dynamics.

Obi’s supporters popularly called the ‘Obidient’ Movement chiefly constituted by the youths believe that the Labour Party candidate will bring about great change to the country’s political space.

Obi’s candidacy has been endorsed by Ohanaeze Ndigbo, and some influential non-Igbo groups and individuals, including former president Olusegun Obasanjo.

Another candidate is the NNPP’s Kwankwaso, the founder of the Kwankwasiya movement, who is regarded as a grassroots organiser. He is believed to be popular with ordinary people in the North but is thought to lack a strong following in the South.

4. Money

With the persistent cash crunch experienced currently in the country, vote-buying may mitigate the outcome of Saturday’s presidential election.

Nigeria is not yet ripe for a democratic election uninfluenced by vote-trading as it has become an important factor that reinvigorates voters to come out to their polling units.

Recently, some party chairmen of one of the political parties were reported to be clamouring for mobilisation fees from the presidential candidate or they would truncate the elections.

Despite measures to improve the transparency of the electoral system, it is likely that money will remain a big factor in the 2023 elections.

5. Fear of violence

Nigeria’s political history is replete with accounts of violent election conduct and behaviours by actors at election venues.

The 2023 general election is itself foreshadowed by rising insecurity in many parts of the country. The obvious outcome is that voters could be too scared to come out to exercise their franchise leading to high voter apathy.

In fact, some local governments in Borno and Zamfara states have created super camps for indigenes that have been displaced from their homes in order not to deprive them of their right to vote.

In some other places, some people might not come out because of the fear of being attacked when the result is not going the way of the areas of the dominant party.

Headline

FG Summons S. African Envoy Over Rising Xenophobic Attacks On Nigerians

Published

2 days ago

May 3, 2026

Editor

The Federal Government has summoned the Acting High Commissioner of South Africa in Abuja over renewed concerns about xenophobic attacks and protests targeting foreign nationals, including Nigerians, living in that country.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the envoy is expected at its headquarters on Monday, May 4, 2026, for a high-level engagement aimed at addressing the growing tension and safeguarding bilateral relations between both countries.

In a statement issued on Sunday, the spokesperson for the Ministry, Kimiebi Ebienfa, said Nigeria would formally express its “profound concern” over recent developments in South Africa, particularly reports of harassment, violence, and destruction of property belonging to foreign nationals.

According to the ministry, the meeting will focus on ongoing demonstrations by various groups in South Africa and documented cases of attacks on Nigerians and their businesses in parts of the country.

“The objective of this engagement is to formally convey the Nigerian Government’s profound concern regarding recent events that have the potential to impact the established cordial relations between Nigeria and South Africa,” the statement read.

It added that discussions would also address ongoing demonstrations by various groups within South Africa and documented instances of mistreatment of Nigerian citizens and attacks on their businesses.

The ministry acknowledged growing anger among Nigerians over reports of xenophobic violence but urged restraint, stressing that diplomatic engagement remained the preferred channel for resolution.

It assured Nigerians that the Federal Government was actively engaging South African authorities to ensure the protection of its citizens abroad.

“The Ministry is aware of the growing discontent among Nigerians concerning the treatment of their nationals in South Africa. Nevertheless, it implores the Nigerian public to remain calm and reiterates the Federal Government’s commitment to protecting the rights and well-being of Nigerian citizens residing in South Africa,” the statement added.

The latest diplomatic move comes amid renewed reports of xenophobic tensions in parts of South Africa, where foreign-owned businesses have occasionally been targeted during protests linked to unemployment and economic hardship.

South Africa has a history of xenophobic violence dating back to 2008, with subsequent flare-ups in 2015 and 2019, when mobs attacked migrants, looted shops, and displaced thousands of foreign nationals across several provinces.

In past incidents, Nigerians and other African nationals were among those affected, prompting strong diplomatic reactions from Abuja and calls for stronger protection of foreign communities.

While South African authorities have repeatedly condemned such attacks and deployed security forces to restore order during outbreaks of violence, concerns have persisted over recurring hostility in some communities.

Headline

Mississippi Man ‘Kills Mother, Flushes Her Remains Down Toilet’

Published

3 days ago

May 2, 2026

Editor

A 29-year-old Mississippi man, Zachary Lavel Jackson Jr., has been charged with multiple offences, including first-degree murder, over the death of his mother, Lana Brown Bradley, after deputies responded to her Natchez home on April 4 following a missing person report from relatives.

The Adams County Sheriff’s Office said deputies were called to Bradley’s residence after her oldest son was unable to reach her the previous day.

Jackson was initially identified as a family member before investigators confirmed he was her son.

Sheriff Travis Patten described the case as deeply disturbing.“This is by far the most heinous crime that I’ve ever witnessed in my entire life. We weren’t out there that day; this was one of those things when we walked up.

“This was one of those cases that you will never, ever forget in your life. This is the type of case that follows you home,” Patten told WJTV.

According to the sheriff, deputies noticed signs of a recent cleanup when they arrived at the home.

“As soon as they walked in the house, they could just see where somebody had been cleaning up, and they could smell chemicals all throughout the house.

“Floor was extremely slippery. And the older son said that this is just unusual for the youngest son to be cleaning up the house like that,” Patten explained.

Jackson, the youngest son, was found in a bathroom, where deputies allegedly made a discovery that became central to the investigation.

“I can say what was in the toilet, and it was her flesh. He chopped her up in pieces and dismembered her in a way that whoever came looking for her would have to do their due diligence to find her, and that’s just what we did,” the sheriff said.

Authorities said Jackson allegedly placed parts of his mother’s body in a suitcase and attempted to dispose of other remains.

Jackson faces charges of first-degree murder, second-degree murder, mayhem and tampering with evidence.

Headline

Iran Says War With US May Resume As Trump Rejects Proposal

Published

3 days ago

May 2, 2026

Editor

Iran’s military has warned that the war with the United States and Israel could resume, declaring that it is fully prepared for any renewed confrontation as tensions between the sides continue to deepen.

In a statement reported by Iranian state-affiliated media, senior military officials said a return to hostilities is “likely”, citing what they described as Washington’s lack of commitment to previous agreements and negotiations.

The warning comes after US President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, saying the terms presented by Tehran included demands he “can’t agree to”.

According to officials in Tehran, Iran believes it showed flexibility during earlier negotiations, including talks held in Islamabad and during the ceasefire period. However, authorities argue that the United States has instead taken a tougher stance, widening the gap between both sides.

Iranian officials insist that key issues such as sanctions relief and the status of the Strait of Hormuz must be resolved before any broader agreement, including discussions around its nuclear programme, can progress. They also reject what they describe as US demands amounting to “surrender”.

The growing diplomatic deadlock has raised fears that another round of fighting may be imminent, with Iranian authorities indicating that preparations are already underway.

Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict continues to have far-reaching consequences within Iran. Internet monitoring group NetBlocks reports that the country has entered its 64th day of near-total internet disruption, effectively isolating it from global online networks.

The shutdown, which began after renewed anti-government protests earlier in the year and intensified following the outbreak of the war, has significantly disrupted businesses and livelihoods across the country.

Beyond Iran, the conflict is also reshaping global dynamics. Rising oil prices linked to the war have placed pressure on international markets, while geopolitical tensions have strained alliances, including between the United States and European partners.

As both sides remain far apart on key issues, analysts warn that without a breakthrough in negotiations, the fragile pause in fighting could collapse, paving the way for renewed military escalation in the region.