Headline

Five Factors That May Affect Outcome Of 2023 Presidential Election

Published

3 years ago

February 24, 2023

Editor

In a few hours from now, 87,209,007 Nigerians will troop to 176, 606 polling units across the country to elect a new President in a presidential election that marks 24 years of uninterrupted democratic experience in Nigeria.

As of February 5, being the deadline for the collection of the Permanent Voter Cards nationwide, 6,259,229 registered voters did not turn up to collect theirs to qualify to vote.

Indeed, Nigerians are looking at electing the next president who will take over on May 29, 2023 upon the completion of the two tenures of President Muhammadu Buhari.

A breakdown of the total eligible voter figure by states by the Independent National Electoral Commission showed that Lagos State has the highest number of collected PVCs with 6,214,970, followed by Kano State with 5,594,193; Kaduna State, 4,164,473, while Ekiti State has the least with 958,052.

There are 18 candidates from different political parties jostling for the position seat but the top four leading candidates are Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party; Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party.

In this report, The PUNCH critically assesses five major factors that could decide the outcome of tomorrow’s election:

1. Ethnicity and regionalism

From time past, Nigerians have always played the ethnic and regional cards in elections. In fact, it has always been the case of “the person is our son, let him do it”. Not a few Nigerians believe that electing someone from their region or ethnic group will bring massive development to them.

Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, there has been an unwritten law that presidential power should rotate every eight years between the North and South, political leaders are agreed that due to the heterogeneous nature of the country, power rotation arrangement had become necessary to address complaints of marginalisation and domination, and to give equal power to ethnic groups.

Zoning has worked well leading to a seamless transfer of power by former president, Olusegun Obasanjo who ruled for eight years, to Musa Yar’ Adua, a Northerner.

This is what brought about the clamour for ‘Emilokan’ (a terminology indicating that it is the time of Yoruba) by the APC’s candidate who publicly said he supported Buhari to emerge as the President.

The South East is not also backing down in their agitation for the presidency because they believe that they have been sidelined well enough since the return of civil rule in 1999.

It is believed this was what led for the call for secession and the call by the apex socio-cultural group, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, that endorsed the Labour Party’s candidate.

2. Religion

Religion is also an important factor that will determine the outcome of Saturday’s election. Since 1999, there has always been a balance in the selection of President and Vice President of all the parties in power.

For instance, if the presidential candidate is a Muslim, he will ensure to choose a Christian as his running mate.

While the North is predominantly Muslim, the South is predominantly Christian.

This balance was however upset when Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim, chose Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri Muslim and former governor of Borno State, as his running mate.

This action led to widespread condemnation from many Nigerians and Christian bodies.

So, as it stands now, many voters may have to pitch their tent with people of their religious inclination.

3. Possible emergence of third force party

Prior to this dispensation, Nigeria’s political space had been dominated by the PDP until February 2013 when the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, and the All Nigeria Peoples Party along with a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance formed a coalition and established the APC.

The newly formed coalition defeated the incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan thus heralding an era of a two-party dominant state. Saturday’s election however could change the narrative with the LP and NNPP looking towards changing the electoral dynamics.

Obi’s supporters popularly called the ‘Obidient’ Movement chiefly constituted by the youths believe that the Labour Party candidate will bring about great change to the country’s political space.

Obi’s candidacy has been endorsed by Ohanaeze Ndigbo, and some influential non-Igbo groups and individuals, including former president Olusegun Obasanjo.

Another candidate is the NNPP’s Kwankwaso, the founder of the Kwankwasiya movement, who is regarded as a grassroots organiser. He is believed to be popular with ordinary people in the North but is thought to lack a strong following in the South.

4. Money

With the persistent cash crunch experienced currently in the country, vote-buying may mitigate the outcome of Saturday’s presidential election.

Nigeria is not yet ripe for a democratic election uninfluenced by vote-trading as it has become an important factor that reinvigorates voters to come out to their polling units.

Recently, some party chairmen of one of the political parties were reported to be clamouring for mobilisation fees from the presidential candidate or they would truncate the elections.

Despite measures to improve the transparency of the electoral system, it is likely that money will remain a big factor in the 2023 elections.

5. Fear of violence

Nigeria’s political history is replete with accounts of violent election conduct and behaviours by actors at election venues.

The 2023 general election is itself foreshadowed by rising insecurity in many parts of the country. The obvious outcome is that voters could be too scared to come out to exercise their franchise leading to high voter apathy.

In fact, some local governments in Borno and Zamfara states have created super camps for indigenes that have been displaced from their homes in order not to deprive them of their right to vote.

In some other places, some people might not come out because of the fear of being attacked when the result is not going the way of the areas of the dominant party.

Headline

US Lifts Restrictions On Visa Validity For Ghanaians, Leaves Nigeria’s Unchanged

Published

4 hours ago

September 27, 2025

Editor

The United States has restored the maximum validity periods for all categories of nonimmigrant visas for Ghanaian nationals following Ghana’s agreement to accept West African deportees, but similar restrictions for Nigerians remain in place.

The B1/B2 visitor visa is now valid for up to five years, with multiple entries allowed, while the F1 student visa’s maximum validity has been restored to four years, with multiple entries permitted.

“The U.S. Embassy is pleased to announce that the maximum validity periods for all categories of nonimmigrant visas for Ghanaians have been restored to their previous lengths. The maximum validity allowed for the B1/B2 visitor visa is again five years, multiple entry. The maximum validity for the F1 student visa is again four years, multiple entry,” the U.S. Embassy announced in a tweet on Saturday.”

Ghana’s Foreign Minister, Samuel Ablakwa, also announced in a tweet that the new policy now allows citizens to apply for five-year multiple-entry visas.

Ablakwa also stated that the reversal of the restriction comes with other enhanced consular privileges, adding that the development was the result of months of diplomatic engagement.

“The U.S. visa restriction imposed on Ghana has been reversed. Ghanaians can now be eligible for five-year multiple-entry visas and other enhanced consular privileges,” Ablakwa stated.

“This good news was directly communicated to me by U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Allison Hooker, at a bilateral meeting earlier today, in the margins of the UN General Assembly. I am really pleased that months of high-level diplomatic negotiations have led to a successful outcome.”

These changes reverse earlier restrictions imposed under the Trump administration, which had limited most visas to single-entry and a three-month validity period.

The restrictions affected several African countries, including Ghana and Nigeria, and were based on concerns over visa reciprocity and the acceptance of deported migrants.

In July, the U.S. Consulate in Nigeria announced updates to its reciprocal nonimmigrant visa policy, stating: “The United States Department of State has announced updates to its reciprocal non-immigrant visa policy, impacting several countries, including Nigeria. Effective immediately, most non-immigrant and non-diplomatic visas issued to citizens of Nigeria will be single-entry visas with a three-month validity period.

“Those U.S. non-immigrant visas issued prior to July 8, 2025, will retain their status and validity. We wish to underscore that, as is standard globally, visa reciprocity is a continuous process and is subject to review and change at any time, such as increasing or decreasing permitted entries and duration of validity. You can view the latest information on visa reciprocity schedules for all countries at travel.state.gov.”

Reports indicate that the U.S. pressured some African nations to accept deported migrants, including Venezuelan detainees from U.S. prisons.

Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar rejected these pressures, stating that Nigeria would not serve as a “dumping ground” for deportees.

“It would be difficult for countries like Nigeria to accept Venezuelan prisoners into Nigeria,” Tuggar said during a televised interview.

“We have enough problems of our own; we cannot accept Venezuelan deportees to Nigeria. We already have 230 million people.”

Meanwhile, Ghanaian President John Mahama confirmed that Ghana had begun accepting deported West African nationals after U.S. requests.

“We were approached by the U.S. to accept third-party nationals who were being removed from the U.S., and we agreed with them that West African nationals were acceptable,” Mahama said.

“All our fellow West African nationals don’t need visas to come to our country.”

Headline

UK Nursery Worker Jailed For Abusing 21 Babies

Published

1 day ago

September 26, 2025

Editor

A judge on Friday jailed a nursery worker for eight years for a string of “gratuitous” and “sadistic” attacks on babies.

In one incident, Londoner Roksana Lecka, 22, kicked a little boy in the face several times.

Lecka, who blamed cannabis for her crimes, admitted seven counts of cruelty to a person under the age of 16 and was convicted after a trial of another 14 counts.

Sentencing her for attacks on 21 babies, Judge Sarah Plaschkes said she had committed “multiple acts of gratuitous violence” at two London nurseries where she worked.

“You pinched, slapped, punched, smacked and kicked them. You pulled their ears, hair and their toes. You toppled children headfirst into cots,” she said.

“Often the child would be quietly and happily minding its own business before you deliberately inflicted pain… Your criminal conduct can properly be characterised as sadistic,” she added.

Lecka’s cruelty was revealed in June 2024 after she was seen pinching a number of children.
Police were called in and found multiple incidents recorded on the nursery CCTV.

Victim impact statements submitted to London’s Kingston Crown Court from parents of Lecka’s victims told how they were left heartbroken and guilt-stricken by the attacks.

“These children were so innocent and vulnerable,” one mother told the court.

“They couldn’t speak, they couldn’t defend themselves and they couldn’t tell us as parents that something had happened to them,” she added.

“They were totally helpless and Roksana preyed upon them.”

The hearing was told that she had apologised to the parents in a letter to the court in which she said cannabis had turned her into a different person.

She had been addicted to the drug around the time of the offences, but had not told the nursery.
She was found not guilty of three further counts of child cruelty.

Headline

Italy Fines Six Oil Firms $1bn Fine For Restricting Competition

Published

1 day ago

September 26, 2025

Editor

Italy’s antitrust regulator said Friday it has slapped Italian energy giant Eni and five other companies with fines totalling more than 936 million euros ($1.1 billion) for “restricting competition” in the sale of fuel.

The authority said in a statement that Eni, Esso, Ip, Q8, Saras and Tamoil “coordinated to set the value of the bio component factored into fuel prices”, which tripled between 2019 and 2023.

A probe following a whistleblower’s complaint revealed that “the companies implemented parallel price increases — largely coinciding — which were driven by direct or indirect information exchanges among them”, the authority said.

“The cartel began on 1 January 2020 and continued until 30 June 2023,” it added.

AFP