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Hope Rises For FG’s N26trn Budget As Oil Price Jumps To $81.11

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Barely a few days to the commencement of the 2024 fiscal year, hope appears rekindled in the revenue horizon as the price of Nigeria’s Bonny Light, rose to $81.11 per barrel, from $78 per barrel it closed last week, indicating an excess of $3.15 per barrel against the 2024 budget reference price of $77.96 per barrel.

The nation’s N26 trillion 2024 budget, benchmarked on $77.96 per barrel and 1.78 million barrels per day, bpd was threatened in the past two weeks when the oil price became unstable trending down to the budget benchmark price.

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Price of Bonny Light rose to $81.11 per barrel on the Red Sea attacks that culminated in shipping disruptions, thus fuelling the speculation in favour of high prices.

However, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, NUPRC, indicated that oil output fell by 7.4 percent to 1.25 million barrels per day in the month of November 2023, compared to 1.35bpd in September 2023.

READ ALSO: Court Rejects Bid To Bar Trump From 2024 Ballot

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This means the pressure point has shifted to output level as this may undermine the realization of the targeted revenue if it persists into 2024.

But the newly appointed board and management team for the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd (NNPCL) has pledged to produce two million barrels of crude oil daily from 2024.

The Chairman of NNPCL, Pius Akinyelure, stated: “We have just concluded our inauguration ceremony by Mr President and we have assured him of our collective efforts to turn around the fortune of the Oil and Gas.

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”And to make it a company that we will all be proud of and a company that will help sustain the economy and make sure we create some element of prosperity for Nigerians. He (President) has assured us of his support and on our own part too, we have given him our one 100 per cent assurance.

READ ALSO: Prepare For Next Pandemic, UN Chief Tells World

“We will do the best we can to make sure that the key performance in the oil and gas industry in Nigeria probably will become number one in Africa and probably compete with the leading oil and gas industry around the world.

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“It is not an easy task but we know we had the challenge of oil stealing, vandalisation of our pipelines. Our commitment is to produce at the rate of two million barrels per day anytime from next year’’.

On his part, the Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, said that oil production in the country would surpass the 2024 budget target of 1.7 million barrels per day.

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JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Hikes Petrol Ex-depot Price

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Nigerians may soon pay more for petrol as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Friday increased its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit to N880 per litre, raising fresh concerns over fuel affordability and price volatility in the downstream sector.

Checks on petroleumprice.ng, a platform tracking daily product prices, and a Pro Forma Invoice seen by The PUNCH confirmed the hike, representing a N55 increase from the previous rate of N825 per litre.

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The increment would ripple across the entire fuel distribution chain, likely pushing pump prices above N900/litre in some parts of the country, especially in areas far from the distribution hubs.

The hike comes despite global crude prices falling. Brent crude dipped by 3.02% to $76.47, WTI fell to $74.93, and Murban dropped to $76.97 on Friday. The decline in benchmarks offers little relief due to persistent fears of sudden supply disruptions.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Sashes Petrol Gantry Price

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The refinery has increased its reliance on imported U.S. crude and operational costs amid exchange rate instability, which adds to its pricing pressure.

On Thursday, the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said his 650,000-barrel capacity refinery is “increasingly” relying on the United States for crude oil.

This came as findings showed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is projected to import a total of 17.65 million barrels of crude oil between April and July 2025, beginning with about 3.65 million barrels already delivered in the past two months, amid ongoing allocations under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy.

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Dangote informed the Technical Committee of the One-Stop Shop for the sale of crude and refined products in naira initiative that the refinery was still battling crude shortages, which had led it to resort to imports from the United States.

READ ALSO:Dangote Stops Petrol Sale In Naira, Gives Condition For Resumption

On Monday, the president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, Festus Osifo, accused oil marketers of exploiting Nigerians through inflated petrol prices, insisting that the current pump price of PMS should range between N700 and N750 per litre.

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He criticised the disparity between falling global crude oil prices and the stagnant retail price of petrol in Nigeria.

“If you go online and check the PLAT cost per cubic metre of PMS, convert that to litres and then to our Naira, you will see that with crude at around $60 per barrel, petrol should be retailing between N700 and N750 per litre.”

He asserted that if Nigerians bear the brunt of higher fuel costs, they should be allowed to enjoy the benefit of low pricing.

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His forecast of increased costs now appears spot on, considering the latest developments.

Marketers are already adjusting. Depot owners and fuel distributors in Lagos and other cities anticipate a domino effect, with new price bands expected to follow Dangote’s lead.

Many had held back pricing decisions since Tuesday, when the refinery halted sales and withheld fresh PFIs. The delay fueled speculation, allowing opportunistic price hikes across various depots.

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Naira Appreciates At Official Market

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The Naira, which has seen steady appreciation against the Dollar all week, closed stronger on Friday, trading at ₦1,580.44 in the official forex market.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website show the Naira gained ₦4.51k against the Dollar on Friday alone.

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This marks a 0.28 per cent appreciation from Thursday’s closing rate of ₦1,584.95 in the official foreign exchange window.

The local currency maintained consistent strength throughout the week, recording gains daily.

READ ALSO: Naira Appreciates Against Dollar At Foreign Exchange Market

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On Monday, May 19, it traded at ₦1,598.68; on Tuesday, at ₦1,590.45; and on Wednesday, at ₦1,584.49.

These gains suggest increased investor confidence and improved forex supply, contributing to the naira’s performance.

Meanwhile, the CBN, at its 300th Monetary Policy Committee meeting held Monday and Tuesday, retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5 per cent.

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BREAKING: Again, Dangote Refinery Cuts Petrol Price

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a nationwide reduction in the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, with new prices now ranging between ₦875 and ₦905 per litre, depending on location.

The ₦15 per litre cut applies across all regions and partner fuel stations, and was confirmed via an official announcement posted on Dangote Refinery’s social media channels on Thursday.

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Major marketers participating in the new pricing regime include MRS, Ardova, Heyden, Optima Energy, Techno Oil, and Hyde Energy — partners in the distribution of Dangote-refined products.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Sashes Petrol Gantry Price

Under the previous pricing structure, Lagos residents paid ₦890 per litre, while prices reached ₦920 in the North-East and South-South regions. With the latest adjustment, Lagos now pays ₦875 per litre, while the North-East and South-South will see prices drop to ₦905.

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A regional breakdown of the revised prices is as follows: Lagos: ₦875, South-West: ₦885, North-West & Central: ₦895, North-East & South-South: ₦905 and South-East: ₦905.

In its announcement, Dangote Refinery encouraged consumers to purchase fuel only from authorised partner stations and urged the public to report any cases of non-compliance via its official hotlines: +234 707 470 2099 and +234 707 470 2100.

“Our quality petrol and diesel are refined for better engine performance and are environmentally friendly,” the company said.

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