Fighting between Iran and Israel could deflect global attention from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even bolster Kremlin’s war effort, Ukrainian officials say.

Israel launched a massive bombing campaign on Iran last week that prompted Tehran — a close ally of Russia — to strike back with missiles and drones.

The conflict has pushed up the price of oil — a key revenue stream funding Russia’s invasion.

“For Ukraine, the challenge is the price of oil, because if prices remain high for a long time, the Russians will earn more,” a senior Ukrainian political source told AFP.

However, Kyiv has welcomed Israeli attacks on a country that has directly aided and provided weapons to Moscow for its own strikes on Ukraine.

The campaign has left several high-ranking Iranian military officials dead and put pressure on Tehran’s military capacity that is likely to limit the practical support it can provide to Russia.

“The Iranian regime is Russia’s ally, so the more they lose, the better,” the Ukrainian source said.

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“Overall, Israel is doing the whole world a favour. That is a fact,” the source added.

The possibility of weaker support and attention from Washington, however, concerns Kyiv.

The administration of US President Donald Trump, Israel’s closest ally, has made it clear that its security priorities are the Middle East and Asia, with Europe lower on the list.

– ‘Iran is our enemy’ –

This could mean further Russian advances on the battlefield or deadly aerial attacks will meet with a muted reaction from a White House that already sees the Ukraine conflict mainly as a European problem.

Kyiv’s efforts to lobby for more support from Washington have been complicated by tense relations between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian leader.

Zelensky recently conceded to journalists that war between Iran and Israel carried risks for Kyiv.

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“No one is claiming to have a relationship more important than America and Israel, but we would like to see the aid to Ukraine would not be reduced because of this,” he said.

He referred to Israel’s war in Gaza that was sparked by a deadly October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militant group Hamas, as a precedent for this.

“It was a factor that slowed down assistance to Ukraine,” he added.

In an interview with US media, the Ukrainian leader said at the beginning of this month that Washington could send “20,000” missiles needed by for Ukraine to shoot down Russian drones to the Middle East instead.

Senior officials in Zelensky’s office told AFP after the outbreak of the war in Gaza that it had spurred Ukraine to focus on developing its own arms industry.

Russia has rained down thousands of drones and missiles on Ukraine since it launched its full-scale invasion early in 2022, including Iranian-made and -designed projectiles.

Israel has claimed to have attacked production sites in Iran, which has also launched silos of missiles at Israel that now cannot be sent to Russia for attacks on Ukraine.

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“Let’s hope that the corresponding production or transfer (of weapons) to the Russians will decrease. This helps Ukraine,” Zelensky said.

The British defence ministry said Iran’s supply of weapons to Russia could slow as a result of Tehran’s war with Israel.

But it said global focus on the Middle East could overall help Moscow.

“Russia almost certainly perceives some benefit in the conflict as it distracts international focus from its war against Ukraine,” it said on social media.

Moscow also produces its own drones and missiles, and has received projectiles from North Korea.

Ukrainian military analyst and blogger Sergiy Sternenko was among voices to issue caution against celebrating the attacks on Iran.

“Do not rush to get too excited about the strikes on Iran. Of course, Iran is our enemy, and we wish these pigs the worst. But fighting in the Middle East will inevitably lead to higher oil prices,” he wrote.

AFP

The US special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack on Thursday warned Lebanese group Hezbollah against getting involved in the war between its main backer Iran and Israel.

Barrack, who is also the US ambassador to Turkey, is on his first visit to Beirut, where he met top Lebanese officials including parliament speaker Nabih Berri, an ally of Hezbollah.

“I can say on behalf of President (Donald) Trump… that would be a very, very, very bad decision,” Barrack said after his meeting with Berri, responding to a question on what the US position would be on any involvement by Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in the war.

The group condemned Israel’s strikes on Iran when the conflict erupted on Friday, but did not announce its intention to intervene in support of Tehran.

READ ALSO:Israel’s Netanyahu Says Iran Will ‘Pay Heavy Price’ After Hospital Hit

Hezbollah suffered devastating losses in its war against Israel last year, which ended with a ceasefire agreement in November.

The war heavily weakened the group, which was once seen as the most powerful and influential component the so-called Iran-led “axis of resistance”.

Reacting to the Iran-Israel war, the Lebanese foreign ministry said last week that it was “continuing its contacts” to spare the country from being dragged into any conflict.

In a statement shared by the Lebanese presidency after his meeting with Barrack, President Joseph Aoun said that “communications are ongoing to achieve the goal of weapons monopoly at both the Lebanese and Palestinian levels, and will intensify after stability returns… to the region”.

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According to the ceasefire agreement, Hezbollah must pull back its fighters north of the Litani river, roughly 30 kilometres (20 miles) from the border with Israel, leaving the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the area.

Israel is required to fully withdraw its troops from Lebanon, but it has kept them in five positions it deems “strategic”.

Lebanon has also recently amped up efforts to disarm Palestinian armed groups, which for decades had been in charge of Palestinian refugee camps in the country.

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Barrack also said on Thursday that Washington was “committed to help… so what we have altogether is hope, and that chaos will subside soon, and that out of that will come the blossoming of peace and prosperity”.

Despite the ongoing ceasefire, Israel has repeatedly attacked Lebanon, saying it would continue to strike the country until Hezbollah was disarmed.

An Israeli strike on Kfar Juz, south Lebanon, killed two people on Wednesday, while another strike injured one person in Barish, according to the Lebanese health ministry.

Israel said it killed two Hezbollah members in its attacks.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran would “pay a heavy price” after a hospital in southern Israel was hit during an Iranian missile attack on Thursday, while his defence minister said Iran’s supreme leader would be “held accountable”.

“This morning, Iran’s terrorist dictators fired missiles at Soroka Hospital… and at civilians in the centre of the country. We will make the tyrants in Tehran pay a heavy price,” Netanyahu said in a post on X.

The Soroka Hospital in the southern town of Beersheba was left in flames following an early morning barrage of “dozens” of Iranian ballistic missiles, with impacts also reported in two Israeli towns close to coastal hub Tel Aviv.

Speaking at the scene of the hospital, director Shlomi Kodesh said that a surgical building which had been evacuated in the past few days was hit, adding that 40 people had sustained injuries.

“Several wards were completely demolished and there is extensive damage across the entire hospital with damage to buildings, structures, windows, ceilings across the medical centre,” he told journalists.

Iran said it was targeting an Israeli military and intelligence base, not the health facility.

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The latest escalation came on the seventh day of deadly exchanges between the two countries, with US President Donald Trump maintaining suspense about whether Washington will enter the war alongside Israel.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rejected Trump’s demand for an “unconditional surrender”, despite claims from the US leader that “Iran’s got a lot of trouble and they want to negotiate”.

– ‘Never surrender’ –

Trump has left his intentions on joining the conflict deliberately ambiguous, saying Wednesday: “I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

“The next week is going to be very big,” he added, without further details.

Any US involvement would be expected to involve the bombing of a crucial underground Iranian nuclear facility in Fordow, for which special bunker-busting bombs have been developed.

The White House said Trump would receive an intelligence briefing on Thursday, a US holiday. Top US diplomat Marco Rubio is set meet his British counterpart for talks expected to focus on the conflict.

READ ALSO:Netanyahu Says Israel’s Strikes On Iran Have ‘Clear Support’ Of Trump

“I have ideas as to what to do, but I haven’t made a final (decision),” Trump said. “I like to make the final decision one second before it’s due, because things change. Especially with war.”

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had told aides on Tuesday he had approved attack plans but was holding off to see if Iran would give up its nuclear programme.

Trump told reporters that Iranian officials “want to come to the White House”, a claim denied by Tehran.

The US president had favoured a diplomatic route to end Iran’s nuclear programme, seeking a deal to replace the 2015 agreement he tore up in his first term.

But since Israel unleashed the campaign against Iran last week, Trump has stood behind the key US ally.

– Nuclear sites –

On Thursday morning, Israel said it had carried out dozens of fresh raids on Iranian targets overnight, including the partially built Arak nuclear reactor and a nuclear facility in Natanz that has been struck previously.

READ ALSO:Netanyahu Announces Readiness For Gaza ‘Temporary Ceasefire’

The Israeli military said the Arak site on the outskirts of the village of Khondab in central Iran had been hit “to prevent the reactor from being restored and used for nuclear weapons development”.

There was also a “near-total national internet blackout” in Iran on Wednesday, a London-based watchdog said, with Iran’s Fars news agency confirming heavier internet restrictions after initial curbs imposed last week.

The military campaign has sparked calls for a return to diplomacy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that a deal to guarantee both Israel’s security and Iran’s desire for a civilian nuclear programme was possible.

“I believe it would be good for all of us together to look for ways to stop the fighting and seek ways for the participants in the conflict to find an agreement,” he told foreign journalists at a televised event.

He said Iran had not asked Russia for military help.

– Daily barrages –

An Israeli military official, who asked not to be named, said Wednesday that Iran had fired around 400 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones since the conflict began on Friday.

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About 20 missiles had struck civilian areas in Israel, the official added.

Iranian strikes have killed at least 24 people and injured hundreds since they began, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Monday.

Iran said Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians.

Both countries have not issued an updated official toll since then.

Israel says its surprise air campaign is aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

Iran had been enriching uranium to 60 percent — far above the 3.67-percent limit set by the 2015 nuclear death but still short of the 90-percent threshold needed for a nuclear warhead.

Israel has maintained ambiguity on its own atomic activities, but the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute says it has 90 nuclear warheads.