Headline

Niger Coup: 3 Decisions For West Africa As Deadline Nears

Published

2 years ago

August 5, 2023

As the seven-day ultimatum given by West African leaders for the military in Niger to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum draws to a close, both sides have crucial decisions to make.

Last Sunday evening, the regional bloc Ecowas, headed by President Bola Tinubu of neighbouring Nigeria, said the junta had a week to restore constitutional order or face the possible use of force.

Sanctions on the coup leaders have already been imposed and electricity supplies from Nigeria have been cut, along with borders, meaning goods are no longer arriving and the land-locked country has lost access to ports.

But as the political, diplomatic and military tensions rise, what could happen as the deadline passes?

1) Deadline is extended

One option is for the Ecowas leaders to extend the deadline.

This has the danger of being seen as a climbdown, but the heads of state could save face by saying that diplomatic efforts have made progress and they want to give them more time.

The problem at the moment is that Ecowas mediation efforts have not borne fruit. A delegation sent to Niger on Thursday returned within a few hours with apparently little to show for it.

Meanwhile, the junta stepped up its rhetoric against both the West and Ecowas. It announced that it was cutting diplomatic ties with Nigeria, Togo, the US and France, and said it was cancelling the military agreements with France which allows the former colonial power to base some 1,500 soldiers there.

And President Bazoum, who is being held by the military, used stark language in an article in the Washington Post. He described himself as a “hostage” and called on the US and the entire international community to help restore constitutional order.

On Friday, the US said it will pause some of its aid to Niger’s government, but will continue to provide humanitarian and food assistance.

2) They agree on a timetable for a transition

To try and cool things down and find middle ground, the junta and Ecowas could agree on a timetable for a return to democratic rule.

This could include the release of President Bazoum, as well as other political detainees, in order to keep talks going and possibly buy more time. This has been a key demand of those who have condemned the coup in Africa and elsewhere.

The West African bloc has already approved democratic transitions in Niger’s neighbours in the Sahel region, Mali and Burkina Faso, which were both taken over by the military in recent years.

But the negotiations were fraught with problems, with deadlines for elections continually pushed back and it is still not guaranteed that the handovers of power will actually happen.

Sudan, which created a mixed civilian-military government in 2019 that was supposed to pave the way to democracy after a coup there, provides another model.

But the collapse of that country into a bitter conflict between rival military leaders offers a cautionary tale.

3) Military intervention

The West African leaders did not say that force would definitely be used if President Bazoum was not reinstated but left it open as a possibility.

Nigerian officials have described it as a “last resort”. President Tinubu said there could be a military intervention “to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant”.

Ecowas has used military force to restore constitutional order in the past, for example in The Gambia in 2017 when Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing an election.

But the calculation about whether to go ahead this time would be far more difficult.

Firstly, Niger is geographically the largest country in West Africa, while The Gambia is a tiny sliver of land surrounded by Senegal and the Atlantic Ocean, so sending troops in would be a whole different prospect.

Secondly, regional power Nigeria, which is leading the charge to restore President Bazoum, is facing a host of security challenges at home, so sending a significant portion of the army to Niger would be something of a gamble.

Thirdly, both Mali and Burkina Faso have said that military intervention in Niger would be seen as a “declaration of war” and they would go to defend their fellow coup leaders.

So it risks snowballing into a full-scale regional war, especially if the Niger population resists foreign intervention. Although it is impossible to know how they would react.

Nigeria and Niger share many historical and ethnic ties, with people on both sides speaking the same language so this could make some Nigerian troops reluctant to fight if it came to that.

Countries like Algeria, Niger’s neighbour to the north, China and Russia have asked for restraint and the continued use of dialogue to douse tension.

However, after a three-day meeting in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, Ecowas defence chiefs say they have drawn up a detailed plan for military intervention for the regional leaders to consider.

Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Benin have all said they are willing to send troops into Niger if Ecowas decided to do so.

Nigeria alone has about 135,000 active troops, according to the Global Fire Power index, while Niger has about 10,000 but that certainly doesn’t mean an invasion would be easy.

A peaceful solution is no doubt preferable for all sides but Ecowas is keen to show its resolve as it has failed to prevent a spate of coups in the region in the last three years.

Headline

South Korea, Japan Protest China, Russia Aircraft Incursions

Published

6 days ago

December 10, 2025

Editor

South Korea and Japan reacted furiously on Wednesday after Chinese and Russian military aircraft conducted joint patrols around the two countries, with both Seoul and Tokyo scrambling jets.

South Korea said it had protested with representatives of China and Russia, while Japan said it had conveyed its “serious concerns” over national security.

According to Tokyo, two Russian Tu-95 nuclear-capable bombers on Tuesday flew from the Sea of Japan to rendezvous with two Chinese H-6 bombers in the East China Sea, then conducted a joint flight around the country.

The incident comes as Japan is locked in a dispute with China over comments Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made about Taiwan.

The bombers’ joint flights were “clearly intended as a show of force against our nation, Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi wrote on X Wednesday.

Top government spokesman Minoru Kihara said that Tokyo had “conveyed to both China and Russia our serious concerns over our national security through diplomatic channels”.

Seoul said Tuesday the Russian and Chinese warplanes entered its air defence zone and that a complaint had been lodged with the defence attaches of both countries in the South Korean capital.

“Our military will continue to respond actively to the activities of neighbouring countries’ aircraft within the KADIZ in compliance with international law,” said Lee Kwang-suk, director general of the International Policy Bureau at Seoul’s defence ministry, referring to the Korea Air Defence Identification Zone.

South Korea also said it deployed “fighter jets to take tactical measures in preparation for any contingencies” in response to the Chinese and Russian incursion into the KADIZ.

The planes were spotted before they entered the air defence identification zone, defined as a broader area in which countries police aircraft for security reasons but which does not constitute their airspace.

Japan’s defence ministry also scrambled fighter jets to intercept the warplanes.

Beijing later Tuesday confirmed it had organised drills with Russia’s military according to “annual cooperation plans”.

Moscow also described it as a routine exercise, saying it lasted eight hours and that some foreign fighter jets followed the Russian and Chinese aircraft.

Since 2019, China and Russia have regularly flown military aircraft into South Korea’s air defence zone without prior notice, citing joint exercises.

In November last year, Seoul scrambled jets as five Chinese and six Russian military planes flew through its air defence zone.

Similar incidents occurred in June and December 2023, and in May and November 2022.

Meanwhile, Tokyo said Monday it had scrambled jets in response to repeated takeoff and landing exercises involving fighter jets and military helicopters from China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier as it cruised in international waters near Japan.

It also summoned Beijing’s ambassador after military aircraft from the Liaoning locked radar onto Japanese jets, the latest incident in the row ignited by Takaichi’s comments backing Taiwan.

Takaichi suggested last month that Japan would intervene militarily in any Chinese attack on the self-ruled island, which Beijing claims as its own and has not ruled out seizing by force.

AFP

Headline

Thousands Reported To Have Fled DR Congo Fighting As M23 Closes On Key City

Published

7 days ago

December 9, 2025

Editor

Fierce fighting rocked the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday as the Rwanda-backed M23 militia rapidly advanced towards the strategic city of Uvira, with tens of thousands of people fleeing over the nearby border into Burundi, sources said.

The armed group and its Rwandan allies were just a few kilometres (miles) north of Uvira, security and military sources told AFP.

The renewed violence undermined a peace agreement brokered by US President Donald Trump that Kinshasa and Kigali signed less than a week ago, on December 4.

Trump had boasted that the Rwanda-DRC conflict was one of eight he has ended since returning to power in America in January.

With the new fighting, more than 30,000 people have fled the area around Uvira for Burundi in the space of a week, a UN source and a Burundian administrative source told AFP.

The Burundian source told AFP on condition of anonymity he had recorded more than 8,000 daily arrivals over the past two days, and 30,000 arrivals in one week. A source in the UN refugee agency confirmed the figure.

The Rwanda-backed M23 offensive comes nearly a year after the group seized control of Goma and Bukavu, the two largest cities in eastern DRC, a strategic region rich in natural resources and plagued by conflict for 30 years.

Local people described a state of growing panic as bombardments struck the hills above Uvira, a city of several hundred thousand residents.

“Three bombs have just exploded in the hills. It’s every man for himself,” said one resident reached by telephone.

“We are all under the beds in Uvira — that’s the reality,” another resident said, while a representative of civil society who would not give their name described fighting on the city’s outskirts.

Fighting was also reported in Runingo, another small locality some 20 kilometres (12 miles) from Uvira, as the M23 and the Rwandan army closed in.

Burundi views the prospect of Uvira falling to Rwanda-backed forces as an existential threat, given that it sits across Lake Tanganyika from Burundi’s economic capital Bujumbura.

The city is the main sizeable locality in the area yet to fall to the M23 and its capture would essentially cut off the zone from DRC control.

Burundi deployed about 10,000 soldiers to eastern DRC in October 2023 as part of a military cooperation agreement, and security sources say reinforcements have since taken that presence to around 18,000 men.

The M23 and Rwandan forces launched their Uvira offensive on December 1.

Rich in natural resources, eastern DRC has been choked by successive conflicts for around three decades.

Violence in the region intensified early this year when M23 fighters seized the key eastern city of Goma in January, followed by Bukavu, capital of South Kivu province, a few weeks later.

– Regional risk –

The peace deal meant to quell the fighting was signed last Thursday in Washington by Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame, with Trump — who called it a “miracle” deal — also putting his signature to it.

The agreement includes an economic component intended to secure US supplies of critical minerals present in the region, as America seeks to challenge China’s dominance in the sector.

But even on the day of the signing, intense fighting took place in South Kivu, where Uvira is located, which included the bombing of houses and schools.

Witnesses and military sources in Uvira said that Congolese soldiers fleeing the fighting had arrived in the city overnight Monday and shops were looted at dawn.

Several hundred Congolese and Burundian soldiers had already fled to Burundi on Monday, according to military sources, since the M23 fighters embarked on their latest offensive from Kamanyola, some 70 kilometres north of Uvira.
Since the M23’s lightning offensive early this year, the front had largely stabilised over the past nine months.

Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye warned in February there was a danger of the conflict escalating into a broader regional war, a fear echoed by the United Nations.

Headline

‘Santa Claus’ Arrested For Possessing, Distributing Child Sexual Abuse Material

Published

7 days ago

December 9, 2025

Editor

A 64-year-old man from Hamilton Township has been arrested in the United States after investigators linked him to the possession and distribution of child sexual abuse material.

The suspect, identified as Mark Paulino, had been working as a “Santa for hire” at holiday events, a role that placed him in repeated contact with children.

Mercer County officials said the investigation began on 4 December when detectives were alerted to suspicious online activity involving the uploading of child pornography from a residence in Hamilton Township. The probe quickly identified Paulino, a retired elementary school teacher, as the person involved.

Police stated that Paulino had presented himself online as a retired teacher and had recently performed as Santa Claus for photographs and private, corporate, and organisational events. “Because this role involved direct, repeated contact with children, detectives worked around the clock to secure a search warrant,” authorities explained.

The warrant was executed on 5 December, during which police seized multiple items regarded as evidentiary. Paulino was taken into custody without incident and charged with possession and distribution of child sexual abuse materials, as well as endangering the welfare of a child.

Prosecutors have filed a motion to detain him pending trial. The investigation remains ongoing, and authorities have urged members of the public with relevant information to come forward.