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Niger Coup: 3 Decisions For West Africa As Deadline Nears

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As the seven-day ultimatum given by West African leaders for the military in Niger to reinstate President Mohamed Bazoum draws to a close, both sides have crucial decisions to make.

Last Sunday evening, the regional bloc Ecowas, headed by President Bola Tinubu of neighbouring Nigeria, said the junta had a week to restore constitutional order or face the possible use of force.

Sanctions on the coup leaders have already been imposed and electricity supplies from Nigeria have been cut, along with borders, meaning goods are no longer arriving and the land-locked country has lost access to ports.

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But as the political, diplomatic and military tensions rise, what could happen as the deadline passes?

1) Deadline is extended

One option is for the Ecowas leaders to extend the deadline.

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This has the danger of being seen as a climbdown, but the heads of state could save face by saying that diplomatic efforts have made progress and they want to give them more time.

The problem at the moment is that Ecowas mediation efforts have not borne fruit. A delegation sent to Niger on Thursday returned within a few hours with apparently little to show for it.

Meanwhile, the junta stepped up its rhetoric against both the West and Ecowas. It announced that it was cutting diplomatic ties with Nigeria, Togo, the US and France, and said it was cancelling the military agreements with France which allows the former colonial power to base some 1,500 soldiers there.

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READ ALSO: Niger’s Junta Seeks Russia’s Wagner Help To Combat ECOWAS Military Threat

And President Bazoum, who is being held by the military, used stark language in an article in the Washington Post. He described himself as a “hostage” and called on the US and the entire international community to help restore constitutional order.

On Friday, the US said it will pause some of its aid to Niger’s government, but will continue to provide humanitarian and food assistance.

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2) They agree on a timetable for a transition

To try and cool things down and find middle ground, the junta and Ecowas could agree on a timetable for a return to democratic rule.

This could include the release of President Bazoum, as well as other political detainees, in order to keep talks going and possibly buy more time. This has been a key demand of those who have condemned the coup in Africa and elsewhere.

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The West African bloc has already approved democratic transitions in Niger’s neighbours in the Sahel region, Mali and Burkina Faso, which were both taken over by the military in recent years.

But the negotiations were fraught with problems, with deadlines for elections continually pushed back and it is still not guaranteed that the handovers of power will actually happen.

Sudan, which created a mixed civilian-military government in 2019 that was supposed to pave the way to democracy after a coup there, provides another model.

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But the collapse of that country into a bitter conflict between rival military leaders offers a cautionary tale.

READ ALSO: Niger Crisis: PDP Govs Knock Tinubu; Reject Military Option

3) Military intervention

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The West African leaders did not say that force would definitely be used if President Bazoum was not reinstated but left it open as a possibility.

Nigerian officials have described it as a “last resort”. President Tinubu said there could be a military intervention “to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant”.

Ecowas has used military force to restore constitutional order in the past, for example in The Gambia in 2017 when Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing an election.

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But the calculation about whether to go ahead this time would be far more difficult.

Firstly, Niger is geographically the largest country in West Africa, while The Gambia is a tiny sliver of land surrounded by Senegal and the Atlantic Ocean, so sending troops in would be a whole different prospect.

Secondly, regional power Nigeria, which is leading the charge to restore President Bazoum, is facing a host of security challenges at home, so sending a significant portion of the army to Niger would be something of a gamble.

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Thirdly, both Mali and Burkina Faso have said that military intervention in Niger would be seen as a “declaration of war” and they would go to defend their fellow coup leaders.

So it risks snowballing into a full-scale regional war, especially if the Niger population resists foreign intervention. Although it is impossible to know how they would react.

READ ALSO: ECOWAS Military Chiefs Seek Diplomatic Solutions To Niger Situation

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Nigeria and Niger share many historical and ethnic ties, with people on both sides speaking the same language so this could make some Nigerian troops reluctant to fight if it came to that.

Countries like Algeria, Niger’s neighbour to the north, China and Russia have asked for restraint and the continued use of dialogue to douse tension.

However, after a three-day meeting in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, Ecowas defence chiefs say they have drawn up a detailed plan for military intervention for the regional leaders to consider.

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Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal and Benin have all said they are willing to send troops into Niger if Ecowas decided to do so.

Nigeria alone has about 135,000 active troops, according to the Global Fire Power index, while Niger has about 10,000 but that certainly doesn’t mean an invasion would be easy.

A peaceful solution is no doubt preferable for all sides but Ecowas is keen to show its resolve as it has failed to prevent a spate of coups in the region in the last three years.

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South African Ambassador Found Dead Outside Paris Hotel

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South Africa’s ambassador to France, formerly a long-serving cabinet minister, was found dead on Tuesday outside a Paris hotel after the window of his room in the high-rise building was forced open, prosecutors said.

Nkosinathi Emmanuel Nathi Mthethwa, 58, usually known as Nathi Mthethwa, had “reserved a room on the 22nd floor whose secured window had been forced open,” the office of the Paris prosecutor told AFP.

The body of Mthethwa, a close associate of former South African president Jacob Zuma, was found “directly by the hotel”, it added.

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A source close to the case, who asked not to be named, said the ambassador suffered from depression and his death could have been suicide.

READ ALSO:Men Can Take Wives’ Surnames —South Africa’s Top Court Rules

An investigation has been opened.

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Mthethwa had been ambassador since December 2023.

In a statement released in Pretoria, South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola said he had “no doubt that his passing is not only a national loss but is also felt within the international diplomatic community”.

The circumstances of “his untimely death” are under investigation by the French authorities, the statement confirmed.

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The ambassador’s disappearance was reported on Monday by his wife, who said she “received a worrying message from him in the evening,” the prosecutor’s office said.

READ ALSO:Egypt, South Africa Universities Beat Nigeria At Global QS Rankings

Mthethwa served as minister of arts and culture of South Africa from 2014 to 2019, and then of sports, arts and culture until 2023, according to his embassy website.

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He was also police minister from 2009 to 2014 and security minister from 2008 to 2009.

Mthethwa also served on the board of directors of the 2010 football World Cup local organising committee.

Between 2007 and 2022, he was a senior official in the African National Congress (ANC), the ruling party since the first post-apartheid democratic elections in 1994.

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He worked underground within the ANC’s military wing during apartheid and was notably arrested during the state of emergency in 1989.

 

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Afghanistan’s Taliban Release US Citizen

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Afghanistan’s Taliban government released an American citizen from detention on Sunday, a week after freeing an elderly British couple.

In a statement, the ministry identified the detainee as Amir Amiri and said he had been handed over to Adam Boehler, Washington’s special envoy on hostages.

Boehler made a rare visit to Kabul earlier this month to discuss the possibility of a prisoner exchange with the Taliban government.

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The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan released an American citizen named Amir Amiri from prison today,” the Foreign Ministry on X, using the official name for the government.

“The Afghan government does not view the issues of citizens from a political angle and makes it clear that ways can be found to resolve issues through diplomacy.”

READ ALSO:Taliban Detains 14 For Playing Music, Singing At Afghanistan Private Gathering

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Little is known about Amiri’s case, as it has not been widely reported.

An official with knowledge of the release said Amiri, who is 36, “had been detained in Afghanistan since December 2024”.

The official added that Amiri would stop briefly in Doha, Qatar for medical checks before continuing back to the United States.

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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the release of Amiri, said he had been “wrongfully detained” in Afghanistan, and thanked Qatar for helping to get him freed.

President Donald Trump “has made it clear we will not stop until every American unjustly detained abroad is back home,” Rubio wrote on X.

In January two Americans were freed in exchange for an Afghan fighter, Khan Mohammed, who was convicted of narco-terrorism in the United States.

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READ ALSO:Taliban Court Publicly Flogs Woman For Illicit Relationship, Running Away From Home

Another American, airline mechanic George Glezmann, was freed after more than two years in detention during a March visit to Kabul by Boehler.

At least one other US citizen, Mahmood Habibi, is being held in Afghanistan. The United States is offering a $5 million reward for information leading to his capture.

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The Taliban authorities deny any involvement in his 2022 disappearance.

Just a week ago, Britons Peter Reynolds, 80, and his wife Barbie, 76, were released from a Kabul prison after almost eight months in detention. The Taliban authorities did not say why they were detained.

The couple was arrested in February and first held in a maximum security facility, “then in underground cells, without daylight, before being transferred” to the intelligence services in Kabul, UN experts have said.

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READ ALSO:1.4 Million Girls Banned From Afghan Schools Since Taliban Return – UNESCO

The couple married in Kabul in 1970 and have spent almost two decades living in Afghanistan, running educational programmes for women and children. They also became Afghan citizens.

All the releases have been mediated by Qatar.

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Both the US and the UK, like many other Western nations, warn against all travel to Afghanistan.

Russia is the only country to have officially recognised the Taliban government, which has imposed a strict version of Islamic law and been accused of sweeping human rights violations.

Dozens of foreign nationals have been arrested since the group returned to power in August 2021, when most embassies withdrew their diplomatic presence.

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The Taliban government says it wants to have good relations with other countries, notably the United States, despite the 20-year war against US-led forces.

 

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One Dead, Several Injured After US Shooting, Fire At Mormon Church

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One person was killed and several others injured Sunday after a shooter targeted a Mormon church in the US state of Michigan, where the building was also set on fire, authorities said.

The suspect, a 40-year-old man from a nearby town, was shot dead by law enforcement after the attack, police said, without specifying any possible motive.

President Donald Trump called the shooting “horrendous” and said on his Truth Social platform it “appears to be yet another targeted attack on Christians in the United States of America.”

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Images from the scene showed emergency services escorting people on stretchers and a large plume of dark smoke at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Grand Blanc Township.

READ ALSO:Head Of Mormon Church Is Dead

Local police chief William Renye told reporters the suspect drove his vehicle through the front doors of the church and then began firing at people inside with an assault rifle.

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He said the service was active with “hundreds of people within the church.”

Authorities believe the gunman also deliberately set fire to the church before he was killed by responding police officers, Renye said.

Ten gunshot victims were transported to hospital, including one who has died, the official said.

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READ ALSO:US Lifts Restrictions On Visa Validity For Ghanaians, Leaves Nigeria’s Unchanged

He added that the fire had been extinguished but that “we do believe that we will find additional victims once we have that scene secure.”

A woman who lives near the church told AFP: “My husband heard people screaming, one lady yelling for help.”

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FBI agents are on the scene to assist the investigation, chief Kash Patel said on X.

Violence in a place of worship is a cowardly and criminal act. Our prayers are with the victims and their families during this terrible tragedy,” he wrote.

Attorney General Pam Bondi also said she had been briefed on the incident.

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