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Oil Market: Nigeria, Russia Account For 440,000 Bpd Drop In Output — Report

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The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, and its allies popularly known as OPEC+, recorded a drop of 440,000 barrels per day, bpd oil output in March 2023, due to developments in Nigeria and Russia.

Specifically, the situation was fueled by pipeline vandalism, oil theft and illegal refining in Nigeria as well as the Russian – Ukraine war, which culminated in the ban of Russian oil.

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In its report obtained by Vanguard, yesterday, the Energy Intelligence, stated: “The bulk of the decline came from Russia and Nigeria, which together accounted for 440,000 b/d, or almost two-thirds, of the monthly reduction.”

READ ALSO: Senate Indicts NNPCL Over N102bn Crude Oil Deliveries

The report also disclosed that the two nations and other factors culminated in the total drop of 680,000 bpd experienced in the past 10 months.

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It stated: “Crude oil output in March by OPEC-plus members taking part in the production agreement saw its steepest fall in 10 months, or 680,000 b/d, to 37.64 million b/d, according to Energy Intelligence’s assessment.

“March production was 2.5 million b/d short of the alliance’s target for the month, the largest shortfall since October.”

READ ALSO: Oil Price Rises After Shocking OPEC+ Production Cut

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Analysts and market watchers, yesterday, said the continued pressure on the two nations would have a prolonged impact on the global oil market.

Already, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC that reviewed the crude oil production data for the months of January and February 2023, noted the overall conformity for participating OPEC and non-OPEC countries of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC).

In a statement obtained by Vanguard, the JMMC, stated: “The Members of the JMMC reaffirmed their commitment to the DoC which extends to the end of 2023 as decided at the 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting (ONOMM) on 5th of October 2022, and urged all participating countries to achieve full conformity and adhere to the compensation mechanism.”

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Naira Depreciates Against Dollar

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The Naira experienced a slight depreciation on Friday at the official market, trading at N1,528.56 to the dollar.

Data obtained from the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the Naira lost N2.73.

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This represents a 0.17 percent loss compared to the N1,525.82 recorded on Thursday.

READ ALSO:Naira Appreciates At Official Market

The Naira, which opened the week on Monday with a gain of N9.52 against the dollar, held steady gains until Thursday.

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On Wednesday, the local currency gained N3.42 against the dollar and received commendation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF, in its 2025 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, commended the CBN for its reforms to the foreign exchange market, which supported price discovery and liquidity.

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JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Hikes Petrol Ex-depot Price

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Nigerians may soon pay more for petrol as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Friday increased its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit to N880 per litre, raising fresh concerns over fuel affordability and price volatility in the downstream sector.

Checks on petroleumprice.ng, a platform tracking daily product prices, and a Pro Forma Invoice seen by The PUNCH confirmed the hike, representing a N55 increase from the previous rate of N825 per litre.

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The increment would ripple across the entire fuel distribution chain, likely pushing pump prices above N900/litre in some parts of the country, especially in areas far from the distribution hubs.

The hike comes despite global crude prices falling. Brent crude dipped by 3.02% to $76.47, WTI fell to $74.93, and Murban dropped to $76.97 on Friday. The decline in benchmarks offers little relief due to persistent fears of sudden supply disruptions.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Sashes Petrol Gantry Price

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The refinery has increased its reliance on imported U.S. crude and operational costs amid exchange rate instability, which adds to its pricing pressure.

On Thursday, the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said his 650,000-barrel capacity refinery is “increasingly” relying on the United States for crude oil.

This came as findings showed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is projected to import a total of 17.65 million barrels of crude oil between April and July 2025, beginning with about 3.65 million barrels already delivered in the past two months, amid ongoing allocations under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy.

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Dangote informed the Technical Committee of the One-Stop Shop for the sale of crude and refined products in naira initiative that the refinery was still battling crude shortages, which had led it to resort to imports from the United States.

READ ALSO:Dangote Stops Petrol Sale In Naira, Gives Condition For Resumption

On Monday, the president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, Festus Osifo, accused oil marketers of exploiting Nigerians through inflated petrol prices, insisting that the current pump price of PMS should range between N700 and N750 per litre.

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He criticised the disparity between falling global crude oil prices and the stagnant retail price of petrol in Nigeria.

“If you go online and check the PLAT cost per cubic metre of PMS, convert that to litres and then to our Naira, you will see that with crude at around $60 per barrel, petrol should be retailing between N700 and N750 per litre.”

He asserted that if Nigerians bear the brunt of higher fuel costs, they should be allowed to enjoy the benefit of low pricing.

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His forecast of increased costs now appears spot on, considering the latest developments.

Marketers are already adjusting. Depot owners and fuel distributors in Lagos and other cities anticipate a domino effect, with new price bands expected to follow Dangote’s lead.

Many had held back pricing decisions since Tuesday, when the refinery halted sales and withheld fresh PFIs. The delay fueled speculation, allowing opportunistic price hikes across various depots.

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Naira Appreciates At Official Market

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The Naira, which has seen steady appreciation against the Dollar all week, closed stronger on Friday, trading at ₦1,580.44 in the official forex market.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website show the Naira gained ₦4.51k against the Dollar on Friday alone.

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This marks a 0.28 per cent appreciation from Thursday’s closing rate of ₦1,584.95 in the official foreign exchange window.

The local currency maintained consistent strength throughout the week, recording gains daily.

READ ALSO: Naira Appreciates Against Dollar At Foreign Exchange Market

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On Monday, May 19, it traded at ₦1,598.68; on Tuesday, at ₦1,590.45; and on Wednesday, at ₦1,584.49.

These gains suggest increased investor confidence and improved forex supply, contributing to the naira’s performance.

Meanwhile, the CBN, at its 300th Monetary Policy Committee meeting held Monday and Tuesday, retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5 per cent.

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