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OPINION: Let Tehran, Tel Aviv Bleed, Abuja Will Pay The Price

By Lasisi Olagunju
A tree does not fall in the forest and kill someone at home. That proverb may be true one hundred years ago. It has expired; its truth is lost to the ravages of this century’s technology. Check what Iran and Israel are sending to each other from a million kilometres apart. They are pressing buttons, bursting bunkers and cracking skulls. They are felling trees to kill the enemy at home.
Between Iran and Israel is a land distance of 2,308 kilometres. It takes 14 hours, 30 minutes to fly from Tehran to Tel Aviv. Driving distance from Israel to Nigeria is 6,349 kilometers; total straight line flight distance from Nigeria to Iran is 5,223 kilometers or 2,820 nautical miles. These are what the World Wide Web tell me. Yet, I want to say that we should prepare for the heat of that kitchen of misery.
What is going on in the Middle East is a war thousands of kilometres away from our country, so why should Nigeria be worried? Heat from distant fires is a grim reality in modern warfare. The shockwaves will soon wash up on our shores; household economies will be in trouble. Collapsing deckings will sink on wayfarers.
There are no regional wars again. This is a world war, undeclared. Listen to what experts are saying. Ponderously, they tell us that this war is not just about geopolitics. They say it is about budgets, about prices, and about livelihoods. They point at the direct combatants, fighting and bleeding. They add some more elegant lines. They say, as if in elegy, that: Israel bleeds dollars to stay safe; Iran bleeds oil to stay afloat; America bleeds billions to hold the line. And countries like Nigeria, with no direct stake in the conflict, are involuntarily dragged into its economic consequences.
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Those who hold the above views are right. A globalized world has obliterated the local in wars; the canopy is a worldwide foliage of blood and tears. So, as we watch live footages of explosions in Iran and Israel, let it sink in our heads that the financial cost of what is going on is a bell that tolls not just for Tel Aviv and Tehran. Abuja should also brace up. This is also our war.
In this unfair world, missiles flying in the Middle East means misery in Africa. Except a miracle stops Tehran from burning and Tel Aviv ceases bleeding, poor Abuja is sure going to pay part of the price.
Already, the war has pushed global crude oil prices by over 10 percent. Oil prices climbed from about $77 to over $86 per barrel on Sunday. Some forty years ago, this would be good news to oil-rich Nigeria. But it is not so today; a dangerous paradox rules our country: We produce and export crude oil; we import refined fuel from those who buy crude from us. A private refinery here even imports crude. Do the maths and be sorry for us.
The war is spiking global fuel refining costs; shipping costs are rising. Those two items alone will soon impact the price of petrol and diesel on the streets from Lagos to Sokoto. Inflation will worsen, incomes will shrink in value; chants of ebi npa wá will be shrill and widespread; there will be anger on the streets; the people’s belly will rebel; the government will be helpless and in real trouble.
Check from Al Jazeera to the Wall Street Journal; from Oxford Analytica to Reuters, etc etc; a scary story of costs is coming out of this war. We should be worried because we are involved.
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The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) says US$265 billion is needed globally per year to end hunger. That need is largely ignored by countries that have. Instead, the very powerful are expending billions on this avoidable war. For Israel, daily military expenditure is estimated to between $700 million and $800 million. An interceptor costs $700,000; a single missile costs up to $4 million. In one month, Israel would have burnt $12 billion in bombs and missiles.
In a multi million dollar operation, America on Sunday bombed nuclear sites in Iran and congratulated itself. The costs in materials didn’t bother it all.
They will pass the bills to the weak and hike the rate of hunger. Who cares? Before its plunge into the war on Sunday, the United States was already spending billions of dollars on the conflict. It spent on repositioning naval carriers, it spent on enhancing missile defence for allies, it spent on deploying reconnaissance and on logistic support. It has started spending uncommon billions on uncommon bombs bursting Iran.
Burning billions on wars is nothing to the super powers. They profit from their investments in conflicts. The US fought in and prospered from the First World War. Read John Maurice Clark’s ‘The War’s Aftermath in America’, published in Current History (1916-1940). Whenever and wherever you see that country called America in combat, know that it does so for peace and profit, especially for profit. Read Stuart D. Brandes’ ‘Warhogs: A History of War Profits in America.’ They pull the trigger, the mugus of the world pay the price.
News
Out-of-school: Group To Enroll Adolescent Mothers In Bauchi
Women Child Youth Health and Education Initiative (WCY) with support from Malala Education Champion Network, have charted a way to enroll adolescent mothers to access education in Bauchi schools.
Rashida Mukaddas, the Executive Director, WCY stated this in Bauchi on Wednesday during a one-day planning and inception meeting with education stakeholders on Adolescent Mothers Education Access (AMEA) project of the organisation.
According to her, the project targeted three Local Government Areas of Bauchi, Misau and Katagum for implementation in the three years project.
She explained that all stakeholders in advancing education in the state would be engaged by the organisation to advocate for Girl-Child education.
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The target, she added, was to ensure that as many as married adolescent mothers and girls were enrolled back in school in the state.
“Today marks an important step in our collective commitment to ensuring that every girl in Bauchi state, especially adolescent who are married, pregnant, or young mothers has the right, opportunity, and support to continue and complete her education.
“This project has been designed to address the real and persistent barriers that prevent too many adolescent mothers from returning to school or staying enrolled.
“It is to address the barriers preventing adolescent mothers from continuing and completing their education and adopting strategies that will create an enabling environment that safeguard girls’ rights to education while removing socio-cultural and economic obstacles,” said Mukaddas.
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She further explained to the stakeholders that the success of the project depended on the strength of their collaboration, the alignment of their actions, and the commitments they forge toward the implementation of the project.
Also speaking, Mr Kamal Bello, the Project Officer of WCY, said that the collaboration of all the education stakeholders in the state with the organisation could ensure stronger enforcement of the Child Rights Law.
This, he said, could further ensure effective re-entry and retention policies for adolescent girls, increased community support for girls’ education and a Bauchi state where no girl was left behind because of marriage, pregnancy, or motherhood.
“It is observed that early marriage is one of the problems hindering girls’ access to education.
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“This organisation is working toward ensuring that girls that have dropped out of school due to early marriage are re-enrolled back in school,” he said.
Education stakeholders present at the event included representatives from the state Ministry of Education, Justice, Budget and Economic Planning and Multilateral Coordination.
Others were representatives from International Federation of Women Lawyers, Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment (AGILE), Bauchi state Agency for Mass Education, Civil Society Organization, Religious and Traditional institutions, among others.
They all welcomed and promised to support the project so as to ensure its effective implementation and achieve its set objectives in the state.
News
OPINION: Fubara, Adeleke And The Survival Dance
By Israel Adebiyi
You should be aware by now that the dancing governor, Ademola Adeleke has danced his last dance in the colours of the Peoples Democratic Party. His counterpart in Rivers, Siminalayi Fubara has elected to follow some of his persecutors to the All Progressive Congress, after all “if you can’t beat them, you can join them.”
Politics in Nigeria has always been dramatic, but every now and then a pattern emerges that forces us to pause and think again about where our democracy is heading. This week on The Nation’s Pulse, that pattern is what I call the politics of survival. Two events in two different states have brought this into sharp focus. In both cases, sitting governors elected on the platform of the same party have found new homes elsewhere. Their decisions may look sudden, but they reveal deeper issues that have been growing under the surface for years.
In Rivers, Governor Siminalayi Fubara has crossed into the All Progressives Congress. In Osun, Governor Ademola Adeleke has moved to the Accord Party. These are not small shifts. These are moves by people at the top of their political careers, people who ordinarily should be the ones holding their parties together. When those at the highest levels start fleeing, it means the ground beneath them has become too shaky to stand on. It means something has broken.
A Yoruba proverb captures it perfectly: Iku to n pa oju gba eni, owe lo n pa fun ni. The death that visits your neighbour is sending you a message. The crisis that has engulfed the Peoples Democratic Party did not start today. It has been building like an untreated infection. Adeleke saw the signs early. He watched senior figures fight openly. He watched the party fail to resolve its zoning battles. He watched leaders undermine their own candidates. At some point, you begin to ask yourself a simple question: if this house collapses today, what happens to me? In Osun, where the competition between the two major parties has always been fierce, Adeleke was not going to sit back and become another casualty of a party that refused to heal itself. Survival became the most reasonable option.
His case makes sense when you consider the political temperature in Osun. This is a state where the opposition does not sleep. Every misstep is amplified. Every weakness is exploited. Adeleke has spent his time in office under constant scrutiny. Add that to the fact that the national structure of his party is wobbly, divided and uncertain about its future, and the move begins to look less like betrayal and more like self-preservation.
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Rivers, however, tells a slightly different story. Fubara’s journey has been a long lesson in endurance. From the moment he emerged as governor, it became clear he was stepping into an environment loaded with expectations that had nothing to do with governance. His political godfather was not content with being a supporter. He wanted control. He wanted influence. He wanted obedience. Every decision was interpreted through the lens of loyalty. From the assembly crisis to the endless reconciliation meetings, to the barely hidden power struggles, Fubara spent more time fighting shadows than building the state he was elected to lead.
It soon became clear that he was governing through a maze of minefields. Those who should have been allies began to treat him like an accidental visitor in the Government House. The same legislators who were meant to be partners in governance suddenly became instruments of pressure. Orders came from places outside the official structure. Courtrooms turned into battlegrounds. At some point, even the national leadership of his party seemed unsure how to tame the situation. These storms did not come in seasons, they came in waves. One misunderstanding today. Another in two weeks. Another by the end of the month. Anyone watching closely could see that the governor was in a permanent state of emergency.
So when the winds started shifting again and lawmakers began to realign, those who understood the undercurrents knew exactly what was coming. Fubara knew too. A man can only take so much. After months of attacks, humiliations and attempts to cage his authority, the move to another party was not just political. It was personal. He had given the reconciliation process more chances than most would. He had swallowed more insults than any governor should. He had watched institutions bend and twist under the weight of private interests. In many ways, his defection is a declaration that he has finally chosen to protect himself.
But the bigger question is how we got here. How did two governors in two different parts of the country end up taking the same decision for different but related reasons? The answer goes back to the state of internal democracy in our parties. No party in Nigeria today fully practices the constitution it claims to follow. They have elaborate rules on paper but very loose habits in reality. They talk about fairness, but their primaries are often messy. They preach unity, but their caucuses are usually divided into rival camps. They call themselves democratic institutions, yet dissent is treated as disloyalty.
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Political parties are supposed to be the engine rooms of democracy. They are the homes where ideas are debated, leaders are groomed, and future candidates are shaped. In Nigeria, they increasingly look like fighting arenas where the loudest voices drown out everyone else. When leaders ignore their own constitutions, the structure begins to crack. When factions begin to run parallel meetings, the foundation gets weaker. When decisions are forced down the throats of members, people begin making private plans for their future.
No governor wants to govern in chaos. No politician wants to be the last one standing in a sinking ship. This is why defections are becoming more common. A party that cannot manage itself cannot manage its members. And members who feel exposed will always look for safer ground.
But while these moves make sense for Adeleke and Fubara personally, the people they govern often become the ones left in confusion. Voters choose candidates partly because of party ideology, even if our ideologies are weak. They expect stability. They expect continuity. They expect that the mandate they gave will remain intact. So when a governor shifts political camp without prior consultation, the people feel blindsided. They begin to wonder whether their votes carry weight in a system where elected officials can switch platforms in the blink of an eye.
This is where the politics of survival becomes dangerous for democracy. If leaders keep prioritizing their personal safety over party stability, the system begins to lose coherence. Parties lose their identity. Elections lose their meaning. Governance becomes a game of musical chairs. Today you are here. Tomorrow you are there. Next week you may be somewhere else. The people become bystanders in a democracy that is supposed to revolve around them.
Rivers and Osun should serve as reminders that political parties need urgent restructuring. They need to rebuild trust internally. They need to enforce their constitutions consistently. They need to treat members as stakeholders, not spectators. When members feel protected, they stay. When they feel targeted, they run. This pattern will continue until parties learn the simple truth that power is not built by intimidation, but by inclusion.
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There is also the question of what these defections mean for governance. When governors are dragged into endless party drama, service delivery suffers. Time that should be spent on roads, schools, hospitals, water projects and job creation ends up being spent in meetings, reconciliations and press briefings. Resources that should strengthen the state end up funding political battles. The public loses twice. First as witnesses to the drama. Then as victims of delayed or abandoned development.
In Rivers, the months of tension slowed down the government. Initiatives were stalled because the governor was busy trying to survive political ambush. In Osun, Adeleke had to juggle governance with internal fights in a crumbling party structure. Imagine what they could have achieved if they were not constantly looking over their shoulders.
Now, as both men settle into new political homes, the final question is whether these new homes will provide stability or merely temporary shelter. Nigeria’s politics teaches one consistent lesson. New alliances often come with new expectations. New platforms often come with new demands. And new godfathers often come with new conditions. Whether Adeleke and Fubara have truly found peace or simply bought time is something only time will tell.
But as citizens, what we must insist on is simple. The politics of survival should not become the politics of abandonment. Our leaders can fight for their political life, but they must not forget that they hold the people’s mandate. The hunger, poverty, insecurity and infrastructural decay that Nigerians face will not be solved by defection. It will be solved by steady leadership and functional governance.
The bigger lesson from Rivers and Osun is clear. If political parties in Nigeria continue on this path of disunity and internal sabotage, they will keep losing their brightest and most strategic figures. And if leaders keep running instead of reforming the system, then we will wake up one day to a democracy where the people are treated as an afterthought.
Governors may survive the storms. Parties may adjust to new alignments. But the people cannot keep paying the price. Nigeria deserves a democracy that works for the many, not the few. That is the real pulse of the nation.
News
Human Rights Day: Stakeholders Call For More Campaigns Against GBV
Panel of discussants at an event to commemorate the International Human Rights Day, 2025 on Wednesday called for more campaigns against Gender-Based Violence, adding that it must start from the family.
The panel of discussants drawn from religious and community leaders, security agents, members of the civil society community, chiefs, etc, made the call in Benin in an event organised by Justice Development & Peace Centre (JDPC), Benin, in collaboration with Women Aid Collective (WACOL) with the theme: Multilevel Dialogue for Men, Women, Youth and Critical Take holders on the Prevention and Response to Gender-Based Violence (GBV).
The stakeholders, who said causes of GBV are enormous, called for more enlightenment and education in the family, community and the religious circle.
Security agents in the panel charged members of the public to report GBV cases to security agents regardless of the sex Involved, adding: “When GBV happens, it should be reported to the appropriate quarters. It doesn’t matter if the woman or the man is the victim. GBV perpetrators should not be covered up, they must be exposed. We are there to carry out the prosecution after carrying out the necessary investigation.”
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Earlier in his opening remarks, Executive Director, JDPC, Rev. Fr. Benedicta Onwugbenu, lamented that (GBV) remains the most prevalent in the society yet hidden because of silence from victims.
According to him, GBV knows no age, gender or race, adding that “It affects people of all ages, whether man or woman, boy or girl.”
“It affects people from different backgrounds and communities, yet it remains hidden because of silence, stigma, and fear. Victims of GBV are suffering in silence.”
On her part, Programme Director, WACOL, Mrs. Francisca Nweke, who said “women are more affected, and that is why we are emphasising on them,” stressed “we are empowering Christian women and women leaders of culture for prevention and response to Gender-Based Violence in Nigeria through the strengthening of grassroots organisations.”
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