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Ukraine Economy Could Collapse If War Drags On, IMF Warns

Published

3 years ago

March 14, 2022

The government in Kyiv continues to function, the banking system is stable and debt payments are viable in the short term, but the Russian invasion could plunge Ukraine into a devastating recession, the IMF said Monday.

The Washington-based crisis lender also warned the war could have broader repercussions, including by threatening global food security by causing prices to rise and hampering the planting of crops, especially wheat.

At a minimum, the country would see “output falling 10 per cent this year, assuming a prompt resolution of the war,” the IMF said in an analysis of the economy in the wake of the Russian invasion.

Though the lender warned of “massive uncertainty” around the forecasts, it said if the conflict is prolonged, the situation will worsen.

Citing wartime data for conflicts in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, the IMF said the “annual output contraction could eventually be much higher, in the range of 25-35 per cent.”

The country’s economy grew 3.2 per cent in 2021 amid a record grain harvest and strong consumer spending.

But in the wake of the Russian invasion on February 24, “the economy in Ukraine dramatically changed,” said Vladyslav Rashkovan, alternate executive director for Ukraine on the IMF board.

That includes the destruction of hospitals, schools and houses as well as “tens of kilometres of roads, and countless objects of critical infrastructures,” the official said in a statement.

Oleg Ustenko, economic adviser to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, last week estimated the damage at $100 billion so far.

– ‘Hunger in Africa’ –

Despite the destruction, the government and banks in the country have continued to function, Rashkovan said, and as of March 1, the country held foreign reserves of $27.5 billion, “which is sufficient for Ukraine to meet its commitments,” according to a statement dated March 9.

The IMF, which last week approved a $1.4 billion emergency aid program for Ukraine, said “debt sustainability does not appear to be at risk” in the short term, although there are “very large” uncertainties.

Beyond the human and economic losses in the country, the IMF cautions about the likely spillovers from the war to the global economy.

Since the conflict began, the prices of energy and agriculture have soared worldwide, and the fund warned they could worsen, fueling rising inflation.

“Disruptions to the spring agriculture season could also curtail exports and growth and imperil food security,” the report said.

The initial impact will be on prices, which would also push costs of other food like corn higher, according to the IMF.

Ukraine and Russia are considered agricultural breadbaskets because they are among the largest wheat exporters in the world, and an extended conflict could hit global food supplies if farmers are unable to plant.

“War in Ukraine means hunger in Africa,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said Sunday on CBS.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned Monday that the world must act to prevent a “hurricane of hunger and a meltdown of the global food system.”

“This war goes far beyond Ukraine. It is also an assault on the world’s most vulnerable people and countries,” Guterres told reporters in New York.

– Avoid hoarding –

The UN World Food Program in a report Friday cautioned that countries that rely heavily on imported grain will also feel the pain, including “hunger hotspots such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria and Yemen.”

World Bank President David Malpass on Monday urged consumers to avoid hoarding flour and gasoline, which will only make matters worse.

And he said producers in advanced economies like the United States and Canada “have substantial potential for supply increases that can soften this blow.”

The World Bank on Monday announced an additional $200 million in aid for the country, on top of the $723 million approved last week, of which $350 million has already been disbursed.

Malpass said the initial funds would provide financing to help the most vulnerable people and “to bridge those gaps during a time of extreme disruption.”

The lender is building $3 billion of financing for projects in Ukraine, which Malpass said will be ready in the next six to eight weeks.

The UN on Monday said it allocated $40 million funds to ramp up the humanitarian effort to deal with this “grim and escalating crisis.”

PUNCH.

Related Topics:Russia-Ukraine War Ukraine

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Tension As Unknown Gunmen Kill Police Informant In Imo Community

Published

2 months ago

April 25, 2025

Editor

By Qosim Sulaiman

Palpable tension engulfed the residents of Nkwogwu community, Aboh Mbaise Local Government Area of Imo State following the killing of an elderly man, Pa Albert Nwanchukwu, believed to be a police informant.

The assailants, numbering about eight, who reportedly stormed the home of the late Nwanchukwu at about 10pm on Tuesday, 22 April, 2025, were said to have met him where he was relaxing in his compound and immediately opened fire on him.

According to our source who pleaded anonymity, before his assassination, the late Nwanchukwu, had reportedly went to a police station in the locality to inform them of the activities of the gunmen, just as he pleaded to the police to get them arrested.

Our source disclosed that the late Nwanchukwu never knew that some policemen are accomplished in the act, adding that the policemen no doubt informed the gunmen who in anger came and killed him.

Our source narrated: “They were about eight in number. They came with different weapons – guns, machetes. They were all masked except their leader.

“It was late but the floodlight from the streetlight was bright. They drove dangerously and went straight to Mr Albert Uwandu Nwachukwu house. The man was relaxing in the front of his house. Immediately they saw him, they opened fire,” he died on the spot”, an eyewitness who saw the entire scene from the balcony of his house recounts.

Our source added: “Further investigations proved that the spy had informed this notorious gang of late Pa Nwachukwu’s visit to the police, thereby leading to the attack on his household.”

After killing the man, the gang reportedly went inside the house searching for other family members.

While it was evident that the gang intended to eviscerate the entire members of the family, three of his children – Victor Onyedikachi Nwachukwu, Promise Rita Nwachukwu Yakubu and Blessing Nzebechi Nwachukwu escaped.

“I saw the three of them. They ran through the back door. Since that time, we have not seen them again”, the same eye-witness disclosed to our correspondent.

This particular incident has thrown the entire community and Aboh Mbaise Local Government in general, into mourning.

While some questioned the safety of police informants, other believed the incident shows the rot in the police force of the country.

Expressing his disappointment in the police, the chairman of Aboh Mabise LGA; Honourable Barrister Iheukwumere Henry Alaribe vowed a major crackdown on the unknown gunmen.

The Commissioner of Police, Imo State Command, CP Aboki Danjuma promised a total clampdown and return of sanity to the community.

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Protect Oil Palm Host Communities; Address Spate Of Kidnapping, Violence, Govt Told

Published

4 months ago

February 26, 2025

Editor

By Joseph Ebi Kanjo

A non-profit organization – African Law Foundation (AFRILAW), has appealed to the government at levels to ensure the protection of oil palm host communities and address the spate of kidnapping and violence in such areas.

AFRILAW further urged the governments to ensure that communities’ rights and privileges are respected in land deals with oil palm companies to avoid human rights violations.

Okereke Chinwike Esq,
Founder and Chief Executive Officer, AFRILAW, made the appeal in Benin on Tuesday at the Public Presentation and launching of ‘The Community-based Report on Human Rights Violations in the Palm Oil Supply Chain in Edo State.’

INFO DAILY reports that the event is part of AFRILAW activities under the “Promoting Human Rights in Palm Oil Supply Chain in Nigeria Project,” being implemented by AFRILAW in partnership with Zero Tolerance Initiative (ZTI) and the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) with funding support from True Cost Initiative (TCI) USA.

According to the AFRILAW founder, addressing companies’ human rights violations from their operations in host communities require evidence-based research, hence the research and report presentation.

“The Report we are presenting today documents evidence of community rights violations by major oil palm companies operating in the state. The research is informed by the increasing spate of violence and community protests against the operations of oil palm companies operating in Edo state, and provides greater understanding of the prevailing cases of community and human rights violations and nature of conflicts,” he noted.

He, therefore, urged the government to
“put in place a mandatory binding CSR laws and guidelines for companies to ensure that community rights and privileges are protected.”

He further appealed to the government to “ensure effective implementation of the National Action Plan on Business and Human Rights and set forth clear expectations for business enterprises regarding the importance of respecting the rights of human rights defenders, indigenous people and communities in Nigeria.”

On his part, Executive Secretary, National Human Rights Commission, Anthony Ojukwu (SAN), described the report as essential, stressing that beyond normal advocacy, research-based advocacy is more efficient and effective.

Represented by Mrs Mary Okoh, Deputy Director, Legal/Focal Point Business and Human Rights, NHRC, Ojukwu said beyond Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) organization should take seriously major issues of mainstreaming human rights into their operations.

“That means anyone who wants to set up a business must put into consideration the needs of the people and not what the organization or company needs. We have found out that this is where human rights violations start.

“Let them be part of the discussion and planning in the setting up of the business. Let them know what is at stake for them,” he said.

Goodwill messages were delivered by government agencies and ministries, while the presentation and launching also attracted security agencies including the Nigeria Police Force, the Nigerian Army, the Nigerian Customs Service, and the Nigeria Immigration Service among others.

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#EndBadGovernance: Police Manhunt Activists, Others, As Artist Cries Out For Help In Benin

Published

11 months ago

August 15, 2024

Editor

The suspect, Osarenkhoe Destiny Oghosa,

The Nigeria Police Force has launched a manhunt for suspected sponsors of the #EndBadGovernance in Nigeria protest that swept round the country last week.

Though police had arrested scores of such protesters across the country, many, especially vocal personalities and civil rights activists who have been criticising policies of the Tinubu administration in Nigeria have been penned down for arrest.

Also of interest to the police are those alleged to have massively produced and supplied Russian flags that were displayed during the protests, as they have vowed that none of the suspects would be spared.

It was gathered that undercover policemen are closing in on the social critics including one Osarenkhoe Destiny Oghosa, a vocal music artiste in Benin City.

This has raised fears and trepidation in that circle with many going underground for fear of being arrested by the police.

Oghosa is accused of masterminding an attempted jail break in the Benin metropolis similar to the End SARS protest in 2020, experience that resulted in the prison break and escape of prisoners and detainees alike.

Oghosa, in an interview with our correspondent, lamented that his music which focuses social justice, equality, societal ills among others in Nigeria, is now being as a crime.

He further lamented that despite several tactics to beat the security tab on him by agents of the government, he had faced persecution from invincible nocturnal groups.

Further lamenting how the government is hell bent in silencing voices speaking for the masses, Oghosa recalled how he was called at midnight to stop production of his song titled “OBI”, adding that he was seriously warned .

In a related development, Ahmed Bello, one of the suspect producers of the Russian flag hoist in some cities in Nigeria has been attested.

The Force Public Relations Officer, Muyiwa Adejobi, disclosed this in Abuja on Monday at the Strategic Communications Interagency Policy Committee joint press briefing.

He added that the police were on the trail of other suspects, especially the sponsors of the protest which led to the destruction of government properties in Kaduna and Kano States.

Adejobi said the suspects committed a treasonable felony, offence by waving a foreign country’s flag in Nigeria.

He said: “So, we need to set the record straight. It is important for us to know, so far so good we have been able to arrest some individuals who were engaging themselves in what I call a treasonable felony, while we are still going after their sponsors.

“To carry the flags of a foreign country in another country is a criminal offence. We have them arrested. Just this morning, we arrested one Ahmed Bello from Kano State fuor producing a large quantity of Russian flags given to young Nigerians to hoist for reasons best known to him.”

The police added that protesters in Benin City had made attempts to invade the DSS office in the state with the intention to free persons who in their opinion were being unjustly detained there-in forcing the law enforcement agencies to disperse them.