The World Bank has described the Nigeria’s 2025 Budget key assumptions of 2.1 million barrels per day oil production and $73 per barrel price as ambitious given the current production level of 1.6mbpd and $60pb price at the international market.

The Nigerian government, however, disagreed and stated that the assumptions were based on the potentials of the economy.

The World Bank in its May 2025 Nigeria Development Update presented on Monday in Abuja, explained that though most of all economic indicators remain positive, inflation remains high.

It noted that for Nigeria to achieve its target of a $1 trillion economy by 2030, the growth rate needs to be five times faster than its current rate of 3.8 percent.

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The global bank, despite the challenges and the rising cost of living in the country, urged the Federal Government to stay on course in the implementation of its economic reforms.

While presenting the report to a gathering that included the Ministers of Finance, Wale Edun, Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, Communication, Innovation and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, Yemi Cardoso, as well as the Governor of Plateau State, Caleb Mutfgang and private sector leaders, the Lead Economist at World Bank Country Office, Dr Alex Sienaet, commended the government for removing subsidies on petrol and liberalizing the foreign exchange market.

It reported that Nigeria’s fiscal outlook remains cautiously optimistic but hinges on the necessary consolidation of recent advances.

“First, it is essential to ensure that the full revenue gains from the removal of the PMS subsidy, estimated at about 2.6 percent of GDP in 2024, are transferred to the Federation Account.

“Despite the subsidy being fully removed in October 2024, NNPCL started transferring the revenue gains to the Federation only in January 2025.

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“Since then, it has been remitting only 50 percent of these gains, using the rest to offset past arrears. “Resolving any remaining net arrears and channeling the full benefits of subsidy reform to the Federation is critical for sound fiscal management.

“Second, close monitoring of the 2025 budget implementation is essential, as it has overly ambitious revenue assumptions and may lead to a larger-than-anticipated fiscal deficit.

“The budget aims to boost capital spending, and this must be done sustainably, within the broader objective of fiscal consolidation to complement monetary policy and achieve an overall policy mix that maintains fiscal discipline and brings down inflation.

“Third, sustained efforts to enhance expenditure efficiency and transparency are crucial to maximizing development outcomes.

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“This responsibility lies not only with the Federal Government, but especially with states, which now receive more revenue (N13.8 trillion in 2024) than the Federal Government (N12.3 trillion)”, it added.

The Minister of Finance, Wake Edun, pointed out that the government needs to push for transparency of fiscal data and transparency in the oil revenue sector, adding this is key to what the government is trying to achieve.

“In terms of where we go next, the key is investment. It is investments that allow increases in productivity that grows the economy and creates jobs,” he said.

According to him, the government is conducting a forensic audit of the NNPC Limited, assuring that all monies due to the federation account from NNPC Limited would be recovered.

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On his part, the Minister of Budget and Economic planning, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, disagreed that the assumptions made in the 2025 budgets were over ambitious, pointing out that they were based on the country’s potential.

“Are the projections in the 2025 budget ambitious? No, they are not, in all modesty. This is because even in the presentation, two things were said: the oil price which is now $60 per barrel but the average for Nigeria is $73 because of our premium grades,” he submitted.

Also speaking, CBN Governor, Yemi Cardoso said the economy needs a period of sustained stability for it to grow, which is what the central bank has been doing.

“We recognize our role as the custodian of stability and we recognize what we have to do to ensure that we accomplish and attain stability,” the CBN boss explained.
(DAILY POST)