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2023-2025 MTEF/FSP: 11.3 trillion Deficit Poses Fresh Threat To Nigeria’s Economy

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The Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP) for the 2023- 2025 which received the Senate’s attention through its Committee on Finance chaired by Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan last week, laid bare not prospects, but challenges that would confront Nigeria in the 2023 fiscal year.

The MTEF/FSP is a policy document that speaks to the budgetary needs of the individual Ministries, Departments and Agencies of government, thus, it’s a preview of the annual appropriation to be soon laid before the joint session of the upper and lower legislative houses.

Traditionally, the presentation of the annual budget precedes the passage of MTEF/FSP at both Chambers. Though President Muhammadu Buhari was expected to present the 2023 budget in the first week of October, 2022, but for lack of space due to the ongoing N30 billion National Assembly Complex renovation, the budget documents would separately be submitted to the upper and lower legislative Chambers.

The separate submission, which President Buhari will not be physically present, was confirmed on Tuesday by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila after the resumption of lawmakers from a two-month annual recess.

READ ALSO: Nigeria’s Debt Hits N42.8trillion

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The MTEF/FSP public hearing afforded the Finance Committees of lower and upper Chambers to interrogate Chief Executives of the agencies of government on the next year proposal submitted to the Budget Office of Federation before they were made available to lawmakers for legislative debate.

The week-long MTEF/FSP public debate in the Senate, DAILY POST, observed, unearthed gross under performance of some Ministries, Departments and Agencies of government, even after over 70% 2022 budgetary releases to them by the Federal Ministry of Finance. The gross under performance, particularly the revenue generating agencies, in the reasoning of Senate Committee on Finance members would put the budget deficit of N11.03 trillion at risk. The total budget for 2023, which was sighted penultimate week by DAILY POST in Abuja, stood at N19.76 trillion, out of which the Federal government would have to source for funds to finance about 60% of the total budget.

Chairman of the Committee, Senator Solomon Adeola Olamilekan after listening to presentation by some revenue generating agencies which could not meet their annual target, threatened that the National Assembly may give effect to ‘the Stephen Orosonye Report’ which recommended the merger of over 400 parastatals of government to save cost.

He urged the heads of government agencies to wake up to their responsibilities, vowing that funds must be raised to fund the deficit. He stressed the readiness of the parliament to amend the relevant provisions of the Finance Act 2021 as amended to assist revenue generating agencies of government in generating revenues.

The lawmaker insisted that the FG cannot go cap in hand to borrow, while he insisted that heads of revenue generating agencies must be creative enough to generate funds to cater for the deficit.

He said: “Heads of revenue generating agencies should look for other sources of revenue generation to reduce borrowing and ultimately the deficit in the nation’s budget.

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“Any agency that fails to meet its targeted revenue generation has outgrown its usefulness and will be reduced to a department under the relevant Ministry.”

The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed had expressed concern on the budget deficit, citing the plethora of challenges confronting the nation and the inability of government agencies to generate funds.

The Minister disclosed that over 70% of the 2022 budget has been released to various government agencies, a feat she said was in line with President Muhammadu Buhari’s determination to properly fund agencies of government.

A member of the Committee and Senator representing Niger East Senatorial district, Sani Musa, pointed out that the challenges facing the oil and gas industry in Nigeria, would pose a serious handicap to the government in view of the fact Nigeria runs a monolithic economy.

Musa added that the government must begin to look away from oil and gas to other things as an alternative means of funding its 2023 budget.

READ ALSO: Debt Servicing Gulps N13.17tn Under Buhari, Education Suffers

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“The budget of this country has been in deficit and the only thing we can do is to amend so many things in the Finance Act,” he said.

Meanwhile, the full scale oil theft in the Niger Delta, which has crippled Nigeria’s ability to meet its 2.2 million barrels of crude oil OPEC quarter, was a source of concern to all stakeholders.

DAILY POST

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Only Seven Banks Can Meet CBN Recapitalisation Requirements – Report

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No fewer than 17 out of the existing 24 Deposit Money Banks may be unable to meet the Central Bank of Nigeria’s capital requirement if it is increased from its current N25bn, according to a report by Ernst and Young.

The new report, titled “Navigating the Horizon: Charting the Course for Banks amid Plans for Recapitalisation”, noted that if the apex bank raised the capital base of commercial banks in the country by 15-fold from the current N25bn, only seven banks may survive.

The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, had in several fora stated that the apex bank would consider an increase in the minimum capital base of banks in the country as part of its efforts to strengthen their capacity to support Nigeria’s drive to become a $1tn economy by 2026.

The current capital base is stratified based on the type of banking license – banks with regional, national and international licenses are currently expected to maintain a minimum capital base of N10bn, N25bn and N50bn, respectively.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: CBN Begins Sales Of Dollars To BDCs

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The proposed increase in the capital base is coming nearly two decades after the CBN’s 2004 banking reform, which led to an increase of the then prevailing capital base from N2bn to N25bn.

The 2004 banking reform was characterised by massive mergers and acquisition activities, which ultimately resulted in the reduction of the number of banks in the country from 89 to 25 banks.

In the last few months, FBN Holdings, Wema Bank and Jaiz Bank had proposed Rights Issues, while Fidelity Bank announced plans to raise additional capital via the issuance of 13,200 billion ordinary shares via public offer and rights issue.

Ernst and Young, a global financial services company, said in the report that some banks may depend on different recapitalisation options, which include mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings, placements and/or right issues and undistributed profit (retained earnings) despite financial soundness indicators show that Nigerian banks were largely safe and resilient as of 2023.

According to the report, the recent plan by the CBN to increase the capital base of banks will lead to a series of mergers and acquisitions as witnessed during the last recapitalisation exercise in 2004/2005.

READ ALSO: FG Breaks Silence On Alleged Suspension Of Student Loan

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The report read partly, “The recent plan by the CBN to increase the capital base of banks could again lead to M&A activities but not as widespread as was the case in 2004/2005 given the relatively solid financial positions of the banks today as well as the occurrence of several M&A activities in the banking sector over the past 10 years.

“While the CBN governor did not indicate the magnitude of the proposed hike in the capital base, we have assumed what the proposed increment will be based on three different scenarios underpinned by current macroeconomic conditions. On the back of that, we were able to determine the number of banks (across the three licence types) that may fall below the new minimum capital thresholds.

“In a worst-case scenario, i.e., given a capital multiplier of 15, about 17 out of 24 banks would not meet the new minimum capital.”

The report noted that the plan to recapitalise banks was premised upon the recent devaluation of the naira in 2023.

It explained that the exchange rate as of 2005 during the last exercise in 2005 stood at N132.9/$ but the naira currently exchange for over N1400/$.

According to the firm, this implies that the recapitalisation may require a capital multiplier of 10 or more based on the exchange rate differentials.

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“On this basis, a worst-case scenario given a 15x capital multiplier for 24 banks will be considered based on the type of banking licenses held. We have benchmarked the current capital of these banks against the current capital requirement and four recapitalization scenarios,” it noted.

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Naira Continues Appreciation Against USD At Forex Market

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The Naira ended last week on a positive note as it continued its appreciation against the US Dollar at the foreign exchange market.

FMDQ data showed that the Naira appreciated to N1,602.75 on Friday from N1608.98 recorded on Thursday.

This represents a N6.23 gain compared to the N1,608.98 recorded the previous day.

The development comes despite the USD transactions plunged by 44.7 per cent to $137.43 million from $248.75 million on Thursday.

At the parallel market, the Naira traded between N1,610 and 1,620 per USD.

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READ ALSO: Naira Depreciation Continues Against USD At Forex Market Days After Binance Exit

DAILY POST reports that all through last week, the Naira had settled at an average of N1,608 per USD.

On Thursday, the Central Bank of Nigeria in a circular warned that commercial banks should desist from profiting through Naira revaluation.

Recall that between June last year and March 15 2024, CBN had floated the Naira twice which saw the Country’s currency trading at N1,602.75 per USD from N460 in May 2023.

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JUST IN: Nigeria’s Inflation Hit 31.70% In February – NBS

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Nigeria’s inflation rate rose to 31.70 per cent in February from 29.90 per cent recorded in January 2024.

This figure indicates an increase of 1.80 per cent, the National Bureau of Statistics said in its latest CPI and inflation report released on Friday.

This indicates that in February 2024, the rate of increase in the average price level was more than the rate of increase in the average price level in January 2024.

The report read, “In February 2024, the headline inflation rate increased to 31.70 per cent relative to the January 2024 headline inflation rate which was 29.90 per cent.”

READ ALSO: Tinubu Converts Enugu Dental College To Varsity

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Comparatively, on an annual basis, February 2024’s inflation rate was 9.79 per cent higher than the 21.91 per cent recorded in February 2023.

Also, the month-on-month headline inflation rate in February 2024 reached 3.12%, an increase of 0.48% from January 2024’s rate of 2.64%.

This indicates that the pace at which average prices rose in February 2024 exceeded the rate of price increase in January 2024.

The NBS further stated, “Looking at the movement, the February 2024 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 1.80 percent points when compared to the January 2024 headline inflation rate. On a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 9.79 percent points higher compared to the rate recorded in February 2023, which was 21.91 percent.

READ ALSO: Order My Predecessor To Vacate Secretariat, NURTW President Begs Tinubu

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in the month of February 2024 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., February 2023).

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“Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in February 2024 was 3.12 percent, which was 0.48 percent higher than the rate recorded in January 2024 (2.64 percent).

The latest inflationary surge is despite tightened monetary policy by the Central Bank.

At the latest Monetary Policy Meeting, the apex bank increased the benchmark interest rate by 400 basis points to a record 22.75 per cent.

Justifying reasons for the hike, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, explained that members considered various scenarios including whether to hold or hike policy and concluded that inflation could become more persistent in the medium term and pose more regulatory issues if not well-anchored.

Thus, members voted for a significantly high policy rate hike to drive down the inflation rate substantially.

He mentioned that the meeting extensively discussed various distortions in the foreign exchange market, particularly the impact of speculators exerting upward pressure on the exchange rate, leading to a significant pass-through effect on inflation.

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The consensus reached involved a substantial policy rate hike aimed at effectively reducing inflation.

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