By Richard Asoge

In line with one of his statutory obligations, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Wednesday, 30th November 2023, laid before the joint session of National Assembly the budget for year 2024, indicating his intention to spend N27.5 trillion, given priorities to defence & security, education and infrastructure. From the receipt side, N18.3 trillion is expected from oil, non-oil, tax and other revenue creating a deficit gap of N9.18 trillion which is to be financed by new borrowing and drawdown on multilateral and bilateral loans.

For a very long time, the gap between recurrent expenditure and capital expenditure was always far apart. Sometimes, allocation to the recurrent expenditure will double that of capital. This accounts for a serious and accumulated deficit of basic infrastructures over the years. So, having more in the side of capital expenditure will bring a relative relief if the budget is faithfully implemented without given excuse for non-performance.

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Reflecting on 2023 budget of 24.8 trillion (including supplementary), only 13.7trillion (55.2%) had been spent so far as at September ending, leaving only 3 months for the implementation to be over. The performance was not all that cheering. Various sources of borrowing had been implored and becoming uncertain to get more loans. This is unconnected to the attention given to taxes in 2024 budget as a prominent source of revenue. Agreed that tax is a good source of revenue anchored on production. Tax itself is derived from production. Given so much attention on tax rather than production first may not give desire result at long run. The desire of every serious economy is to keep inflation rate at single digit, unemployment at barest minimum, embarking on policies that would positively influence macroeconomic variables. Most of the advance economies of the world which we copy have robust production system which makes it easy for them to generate much revenue via taxation. Out there, sizeable number of people were engaged in one activity or the other that adds values to the GDP.

Current inflation rate of 27.3% is more of cost push than demand pull. Cost of operation to the businesses and surviving manufacturing firms had gone up exponentially, which made the outputs extremely expensive for a common man to afford. Cost of transportation of items or persons from one point to the other, cost of energy, cost of credit and others drive the inflation. Plans to moderate inflation rate to 21.4% as planned in 2024 budget is attainable, and even surpass it if structural factors that brought about the challenges are holistically tackled. Given domestic refineries and modular refineries the necessary support for production without further delay to meet local demand substantially will bring succor to the citizens and as well beneficial to the nation’s economy. Even if the price of petroleum motor spirit is not all that reduced significantly as being expected by some, whatever reduction will have, will be beneficial and as well add value to us as a nation. Employment generation along the chain of production and the bye products will be an advantage.

Waiting till the third quarter of the year before evaluating the performance of the budget to see if it is tilting toward desire result seems not the best approach but time to time check to deal with any challenge in early stage.

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Allocation of 8% (N2.18 trillion) to education may not up to the recommendation of UNESCO, but there is significant improvement compared to what obtained in the time past. N50 billion student loan is a good move to assist indigent ones but government should not see it as an opportunity to take its hands off subvention or reduce subvention to various institutions of learning. Otherwise, schools will load various charges under school fees to keep their heads above the sea level thereby defeating the principal purpose behind the establishment of such loan.

If data released by NBS is anything to go by, GDP was observed to move up to 2.54% (year on year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2023 from 2.25% in 2022. The growth was driven by service sector. Contribution from agriculture and industry sectors is less which is why agricultural outputs are becoming scarce in the market. Of course, any item short of supply to the demand, price will dictate who get such item. Making agriculture at the forefront of economic drivers toward achieving the 3.75% economic growth in 2024 will not only put an end to hunger but ensures food security. Security of lives and properties propels economic growth. When people can sleep with both eyes closed, economic growth is assured. So, allocation of N3.25trillion to defence and security, making it the sector that got most in the budget seems justified considering the period we are as a nation. However, all those that are concerned in the defence and security of the country must all strive to ensure total security on the land, on the sea and on the air.

An average man on the street is no longer interested in mathematics of budget or various statistics been churned out. He is after a bag of rice coming down to N30,000 from the current suicidal price of N60,000. An average housewife wants N5,000 in her purse to be enough for a pot of soup for a family of four for at least two days. Everyone is not just interested in the price of basic items to come down but stability in prices. In the past six months or thereabout, nothing harms the economy like price instability. Prices of goods and services were ticking upward every minute as if it were clock causing naira to lose its worth.

Richard Asoge
Clappahouse Analytics
chards001@gmail.com
08081492614