Nigeria’s monthly inflation rate has slowed for the third consecutive month, indicating the effectiveness of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary policy tightening measures.

The CBN highlighted this in a statement shared with Journalists on Saturday.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the headline month-on-month inflation rate decreased to 2.14 per cent in May, down from 2.29 per cent in April and 3.02 per cent in March. Food inflation also fell for the third consecutive month to 2.28 per cent in May.

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The Deputy Governor of the Economic Policy Directorate at the CBN, Muhammad Abdullahi stated, “Slowly but surely, the inflation tide is turning. We will continue to work diligently with coordinated policy measures to ensure that the worst of the inflationary cycle is behind us in the nearest future.”

The CBN’s efforts to combat inflation have been ongoing since February, and the monthly numbers indicate a positive trend. While year-on-year inflation continues to rise, the monthly rates show a slowdown in price increases for essential goods.

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The CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso has made tackling inflation a top priority to achieve sustainable economic growth and improve the standard of living for Nigerians.

The decline in inflation rates is a nationwide trend, with 13 states, including Abuja, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers, experiencing a slowdown in year-on-year inflation in May.

Abdullahi noted that, “This development is a promising sign that the CBN’s policies are having the desired effect, and Nigerians may soon experience relief from the high cost of living that has persisted since the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Experts believe that prices of petrol and diesel may not crash significantly despite the commencement of production at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

With the removal of subsidy on petrol in May 2023, the price per litre of petrol jumped from around N184 to over N600 depending on the location. Diesel also sells for about N1500 per litre at retail outlets.

Petrol marketers are optimistic that production at Dangote refinery will significantly force down the prices of petrol and diesel.

But the experts said though the behemoth refinery is located in Lagos, Nigeria, the input cost for the operationalisation of the $20bn facility is import-dependent, adding that the volatility of the foreign exchange rates might make it difficult for any marginal reduction in the prices of the premium commodities.

These were the thoughts of the Publisher of Sweet Crude Reports, Hector Igbikiowubo; and Nairametrics Founder, Ugodre Obi-Chukwu; on Inside Sources with Laolu Akande, a socio-political programme aired on Channels Television on Friday.

Both Igbikiowubo and Obi-Chukwu commended Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, for defying all odds to ensure that his dream to build a functional refinery came to life.

They said Dangote demonstrated that the Federal Government has no excuse not to get the country’s four dormant refineries working and urged the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to increase crude supply to the private refinery.

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The billionaire business tycoon recently said his refinery would continue to import 24 million barrels of West Texas Intermediate crude due to insufficient local crude production and supply by the state-run NNPC.

The experts said though the private refinery won’t solve Nigeria’s energy security needs, its operations would go a long way in making premium petrol products available in the country.

“The Dangote Refinery cannot solve the problem because the Dangote Refinery will continue to pay for crude oil in USD (United States Dollar),” Igbikiowubo said.

“The question now is how come the NNPC isn’t allotting all of its 445,000 barrels per day to the Dangote Refinery for refining? Why is it convenient to export crude oil when you have a facility like the Dangote Refinery up and running? You make more money if you export refined petroleum products than if you export crude oil.”

Obi-Chukwu agreed with Igbikiowubo that the dominance of the greenback in the operational cost of the Dangote Refinery might not necessarily lower the cost of the refined products for end users.

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Obi-Chukwu said, “As much as the refinery is local, most of the input cost for that refinery is still going to be imported. Whether it is the personnel that will service the refinery. Whether it is the spare parts that will be changed and serviced. Even the crude itself is also being imported.

“A lot of the breakdown of the cost still has foreign components in there. So, it is quite unlikely that you might see a substantial amount of savings to the end consumers. Nevertheless, even if we get 10% savings, it is still better than what we currently have.”

The refinery sited in Lagos and owned by the billionaire businessman commenced operations last December with 350,000 barrels a day. The refinery hopes to achieve its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.

The refinery has begun the supply of diesel and aviation fuel to marketers in the country while petrol supply is expected to commence mid-July.

Energy Security

The experts said though the Dangote Refinery has been operational, the country’s four refineries sited in three locations across the country should be made to function to guarantee energy security for the country.

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The four state-owned refineries which are in dilapidated condition are sited up north in Kaduna with three units sited in the southern region – Port Harcourt and Warri. Attempts to get them working for about two decades have not been successful despite billions of naira spent on turnaround maintenance.

The newspaper publishers believe the Bola Tinubu administration should do all in its ability to make the state-owned refineries work.

Igbikiowubo said, “The essence of having the NNPC refineries working is to guarantee energy security for the Nigerian state.”

He said though the NNPC has about 20% stake in the Dangote Refinery, the refinery does not belong to the Nigerian state.

“We should have a coherent energy security in place,” he said. “If you have refineries, those refineries should work.”

Igbikiowubo said privatisation of the state-owned refineries does not guarantee energy security as the private company is interested in profit-making for its shareholders and not necessarily ensuring that the populace gets the premium commodities easily and at cheap rates.

“Where is NITEL today? It was privatised. Where is Daily Times today? It was privatised. We need to be accountable. The money sunk into the refineries, what happened to them?”Igbikiowubo asked.

“Last year, the petroleum minister granted an interview that the Port Harcourt Refinery would be up by December. This is June and nothing has happened. He is not being held to account.”

He said subsidy removal should be predicated on local refining and not import-dependent products controlled by the vagaries of foreign exchange.

“You have a group of persons who are benefitting with the status quo and they will do everything to ensure the status quo remains,” said the Sweet Crude Reports publisher.

‘Privatise With Clear Mandate’
The publisher of Nairametrics posited that privatisation can work – and it has worked before in other sectors of the country – if done the right way.

“We’ve practiced one model before, the government trying to run the refineries. It hasn’t worked. What we see now is funds being misappropriated from the very limited funding space that we have as a country and these funds are being squandered. So, there is no point. The same thing with the Ajaokuta Steel.

“You have to privatise properly with a clear mandate and key performance indicators including public list on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE),” he said.

He urged the government to set the right policies to allow private businesses to flourish in the country.

Nigeria’s total public debt has reached N121.67tn, increasing by N24.33tn or 24.99 per cent within three months, the Debt Management Office has announced.

This new figure is from a total debt of N97.34tn (108.23bn) as of December 2023.

The Debt Management Office disclosed the new figure in a press release on Thursday in Abuja.

The Public Debt, comprise of Total Domestic and External Debts of the Federal Government of Nigeria, the thirty-six state governments, and the Federal Capital Territory.

The report read, “Nigeria’s total public debt stood at N121.67 trillion (USD91.46 billion) as of March 31, 2024. The comparative figure for December 31, 2023, was N97.34 trillion (USD108.23 billion). Total Domestic Debt was N65.65 trillion (USD46.29 billion) while Total External Debt was N56.02 trillion (USD42.12 billion).”

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PUNCH Online observed that the increase is driven majorly by naira devaluation, as the total debt was reduced in dollar terms.

On Thursday, The PUNCH reported that the government has borrowed a total of $4.95bn in loans from the World Bank in the past 12 months amidst worries about the increasing costs of servicing external debt.

This came as the government still expects fresh loan approval worth $4.4bn from the international lender and the Africa Development Bank over the next year.

An analysis by The PUNCH showed that the bank approved funding for six projects including $750m for power sector financing, $500m for women empowerment, $700m for girl child education, $750m for renewable energy solutions, $750m on resource mobilisation reforms and $1.5bn for economic stabilisation reforms.