Headline

Five Factors That May Affect Outcome Of 2023 Presidential Election

Published

3 years ago

February 24, 2023

In a few hours from now, 87,209,007 Nigerians will troop to 176, 606 polling units across the country to elect a new President in a presidential election that marks 24 years of uninterrupted democratic experience in Nigeria.

As of February 5, being the deadline for the collection of the Permanent Voter Cards nationwide, 6,259,229 registered voters did not turn up to collect theirs to qualify to vote.

Indeed, Nigerians are looking at electing the next president who will take over on May 29, 2023 upon the completion of the two tenures of President Muhammadu Buhari.

A breakdown of the total eligible voter figure by states by the Independent National Electoral Commission showed that Lagos State has the highest number of collected PVCs with 6,214,970, followed by Kano State with 5,594,193; Kaduna State, 4,164,473, while Ekiti State has the least with 958,052.

There are 18 candidates from different political parties jostling for the position seat but the top four leading candidates are Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party; Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party.

In this report, The PUNCH critically assesses five major factors that could decide the outcome of tomorrow’s election:

1. Ethnicity and regionalism

From time past, Nigerians have always played the ethnic and regional cards in elections. In fact, it has always been the case of “the person is our son, let him do it”. Not a few Nigerians believe that electing someone from their region or ethnic group will bring massive development to them.

Since the advent of the Fourth Republic in 1999, there has been an unwritten law that presidential power should rotate every eight years between the North and South, political leaders are agreed that due to the heterogeneous nature of the country, power rotation arrangement had become necessary to address complaints of marginalisation and domination, and to give equal power to ethnic groups.

Zoning has worked well leading to a seamless transfer of power by former president, Olusegun Obasanjo who ruled for eight years, to Musa Yar’ Adua, a Northerner.

This is what brought about the clamour for ‘Emilokan’ (a terminology indicating that it is the time of Yoruba) by the APC’s candidate who publicly said he supported Buhari to emerge as the President.

The South East is not also backing down in their agitation for the presidency because they believe that they have been sidelined well enough since the return of civil rule in 1999.

It is believed this was what led for the call for secession and the call by the apex socio-cultural group, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, that endorsed the Labour Party’s candidate.

2. Religion

Religion is also an important factor that will determine the outcome of Saturday’s election. Since 1999, there has always been a balance in the selection of President and Vice President of all the parties in power.

For instance, if the presidential candidate is a Muslim, he will ensure to choose a Christian as his running mate.

While the North is predominantly Muslim, the South is predominantly Christian.

This balance was however upset when Tinubu, a Yoruba Muslim, chose Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri Muslim and former governor of Borno State, as his running mate.

This action led to widespread condemnation from many Nigerians and Christian bodies.

So, as it stands now, many voters may have to pitch their tent with people of their religious inclination.

3. Possible emergence of third force party

Prior to this dispensation, Nigeria’s political space had been dominated by the PDP until February 2013 when the Action Congress of Nigeria, the Congress for Progressive Change, and the All Nigeria Peoples Party along with a breakaway faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance formed a coalition and established the APC.

The newly formed coalition defeated the incumbent President, Goodluck Jonathan thus heralding an era of a two-party dominant state. Saturday’s election however could change the narrative with the LP and NNPP looking towards changing the electoral dynamics.

Obi’s supporters popularly called the ‘Obidient’ Movement chiefly constituted by the youths believe that the Labour Party candidate will bring about great change to the country’s political space.

Obi’s candidacy has been endorsed by Ohanaeze Ndigbo, and some influential non-Igbo groups and individuals, including former president Olusegun Obasanjo.

Another candidate is the NNPP’s Kwankwaso, the founder of the Kwankwasiya movement, who is regarded as a grassroots organiser. He is believed to be popular with ordinary people in the North but is thought to lack a strong following in the South.

4. Money

With the persistent cash crunch experienced currently in the country, vote-buying may mitigate the outcome of Saturday’s presidential election.

Nigeria is not yet ripe for a democratic election uninfluenced by vote-trading as it has become an important factor that reinvigorates voters to come out to their polling units.

Recently, some party chairmen of one of the political parties were reported to be clamouring for mobilisation fees from the presidential candidate or they would truncate the elections.

Despite measures to improve the transparency of the electoral system, it is likely that money will remain a big factor in the 2023 elections.

5. Fear of violence

Nigeria’s political history is replete with accounts of violent election conduct and behaviours by actors at election venues.

The 2023 general election is itself foreshadowed by rising insecurity in many parts of the country. The obvious outcome is that voters could be too scared to come out to exercise their franchise leading to high voter apathy.

In fact, some local governments in Borno and Zamfara states have created super camps for indigenes that have been displaced from their homes in order not to deprive them of their right to vote.

In some other places, some people might not come out because of the fear of being attacked when the result is not going the way of the areas of the dominant party.

Headline

Nigerian Jailed Six Years In U.S. For Sextortion

Published

1 day ago

November 16, 2025

Editor

Imoleayo Samuel Aina, also known as “Alice Dave,” a 27-year-old Nigerian national, has been sentenced to six years in federal prison following his conviction on multiple charges connected to the sexual extortion and subsequent death of a young man in Pennsylvania.

The sentence, handed down by United States District Judge Joel H. Slomsky, includes 72 months of incarceration, five years of supervised release, and a restitution payment of $3,250. Aina had earlier pleaded guilty to cyberstalking, interstate threats to injure reputation, receiving proceeds of extortion, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and wire fraud.

Aina and his co-defendant, Samuel Olasunkanmi Abiodun, were initially arrested in Nigeria in July 2024 and subsequently extradited to the United States. Another co-defendant, Afeez Olatunji Adewale, remains in Nigeria pending extradition. Abiodun, 26, was sentenced to five years in June 2025 for his role in money laundering and wire fraud related to the same sextortion scheme.

U.S. Attorney David Metcalf described Aina as “the driving force behind this sextortion scheme, which left a young man, and then his family, traumatised.” He added, “The Department of Justice won’t just stand by when innocent victims in the U.S. are harmed by criminal scammers overseas. As this case shows, we can — and we will — find, prosecute, and hold accountable these insidious sextortionists who terrorise people for money.”

Wayne A. Jacobs, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI’s Philadelphia Field Office, emphasised the wider message of the prosecution. “This case is a powerful reminder of the profound harm sextortion inflicts on young people and their families, and of our unwavering commitment to pursuing those who perpetrate it.

“Whether you are in the United States or operating from abroad, the FBI and our partners will relentlessly pursue you. If you exploit our youth, we will bring you to justice.”

The investigation, conducted jointly by the FBI and the Abington Township Police Department, was supported by multiple international and Nigerian authorities, including Nigeria’s Attorney General, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, and the Ministry of Justice’s International Criminal Justice Cooperation Department.

Aina’s co-defendants played complementary roles in the scheme. Abiodun functioned as the financial intermediary, while Adewale, who remains in Nigeria, faces charges of money laundering conspiracy and wire fraud.

Assistant United States Attorney Patrick Brown, prosecuting the case, noted the international collaboration required to secure Aina’s extradition and conviction. “This prosecution demonstrates that national borders do not shield those who exploit and defraud others. Those who choose to target the vulnerable should understand that justice will reach them, regardless of location,” he said.

Headline

UK Ends Automatic Benefits For Asylum Seekers In Major Reform

Published

1 day ago

November 16, 2025

Editor

Britain’s interior minister on Sunday defended plans to drastically reduce protections for refugees and end automatic benefits for asylum seekers, insisting that irregular migration was “tearing our country apart”.

The measures, modelled on Denmark’s strict asylum system, aim to stop thousands of migrants from arriving in England from northern France on small boats — crossings that are fuelling support for the anti-immigrant Reform UK party.

But the proposals were criticised as “harsh and unnecessary” by the Refugee Council charity and are likely to be opposed by left-wing lawmakers within Prime Minister Keir Starmer‘s embattled Labour government.

“I really reject this idea that dealing with this problem is somehow engaging in far-right talking points,” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told BBC television.

“This is a moral mission for me, because I can see illegal migration is tearing our country apart, it is dividing communities.”

Presently, those given refugee status have it for five years, after which they can apply for indefinite leave to remain and eventually citizenship.

But Mahmood’s ministry, known as the Home Office, said it would cut the length of refugee status to 30 months.

That protection will be “regularly reviewed” and refugees will be forced to return to their home countries once they are deemed safe, it added.

The ministry also said that it intended to make those refugees who were granted asylum wait 20 years before applying to be allowed to live in the UK long-term, up from the current five years.

It also announced that it would create “new safe and legal routes for genuine refugees” through “capped work and study routes”.

Asylum claims in Britain are at a record high, with some 111,000 applications made in the year to June 2025, according to official figures.

The Home Office called the new proposals, which Mahmood will lay out in parliament on Monday, the “largest overhaul of asylum policy in modern times”.

It said the reforms would make it less attractive for irregular migrants to come to Britain, and make it easier to remove those already in the country.

– Benefits crackdown –

A statutory legal duty to provide support to asylum seekers, introduced in a 2005 law, would also be revoked, the Home Office said.

That means housing and weekly financial allowances would no longer be guaranteed for asylum seekers.
It would be “discretionary”, meaning the government could deny assistance to any asylum seeker who could work or support themselves but did not, or those who committed crimes.

Starmer, elected in July 2024, is under pressure to stop migrants crossing the Channel in small boats from France, something that also troubled his Conservative predecessors.

More than 39,000 people, many fleeing conflict, have arrived this year following such dangerous journeys — more than for the whole of 2024 but lower than the record set in 2022.

Reform, led by firebrand Nigel Farage, has led Labour by double-digit margins in opinion polls for most of this year.

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, urged the government to rethink its plans, saying they “will not deter” the crossings.

“They should ensure that refugees who work hard and contribute to Britain can build secure, settled lives and give back to their communities,” he said.

Labour is taking inspiration from Denmark’s coalition government — led by the centre-left Social Democrats — which has implemented some of the strictest migration policies in Europe.

Senior British officials recently visited the Scandinavian country, where successful asylum claims are at a 40-year-low.

Refugees in Denmark are entitled to a one-year renewable residency permit, and are encouraged to return home as soon as authorities deem there is no longer a need for a safe haven.

Family reunions are also subject to strict requirements, including a minimum age for both parents, language tests and guarantees of funds.

Labour’s more left-wing lawmakers will probably oppose the plans, fearing that the party is losing voters to progressive alternatives such as the Greens.

Headline

Overcrowding, Security Lapses Plague Nigerian Prisons —EU

Published

1 day ago

November 16, 2025

Editor

A report by the European Union Agency for Asylum has revealed that Nigeria’s custodial centres are battling “escalating security challenges.”

The report, sighted by Sunday PUNCH, was published in November 2025. It documented a decade-long pattern of prison escapes in the country, explaining why the custodial centres are confronting rising jailbreaks, citing persistent security lapses.

“Over the past decade, Nigeria has experienced a pattern of prison jailbreaks, resulting in thousands of inmates escaping correctional facilities nationwide,” the report noted.

Highlighting systemic weaknesses, the report cited overcrowding, structural deficiencies, and chronic underfunding as major contributors to the problem.

“One incident occurred in March 2025, when 12 inmates escaped from the Koton Karfe Medium Security Custodial Centre in Kogi State. Only five were recaptured.

“This marked the fourth jailbreak at this facility in 13 years, where nearly 700 inmates have fled, including about 100 freed during a 2012 Boko Haram attack,” it stated.

Observers attribute the recurring breakouts to “security gaps, together with possible insider complicity, which exacerbate the prisons’ vulnerabilities, especially amid attacks by armed groups like Boko Haram.”

Beyond security concerns, the report said overcrowding and poor infrastructure continued to strain the country’s correctional system.

“The country’s more than 240 prisons currently house over 80,000 inmates, with two-thirds awaiting trial.

“The observers also point to systemic issues such as overcrowding, outdated infrastructure, poor inmate conditions, slow judicial processes, and widespread corruption,” the report said.

“International bodies have also criticised the state of Nigeria’s detention system,” it stated.

Following a September 2024 visit, the United Nations Subcommittee on Prevention of Torture described conditions in detention centres as “abysmal,” citing inadequate food, healthcare, and sanitation.

“Their assessment described conditions in most detention facilities as ‘abysmal.’ Additionally, Nigeria had not yet established a National Preventive Mechanism as required under the Optional Protocol to the Convention against Torture, which Nigeria ratified in 2009.

“The Subcommittee called on Nigeria to urgently implement measures to prevent torture and ill-treatment, improve detention conditions—particularly in police stations and similar facilities—and enforce legal safeguards to end impunity for perpetrators of torture,” the report read.

The report also raised concerns over the continued use of the death penalty.

It added, “In Nigeria, the death penalty is a ‘lawful punishment’ imposed nationwide, including for offences that do not meet the threshold of ‘most serious crimes’ under international law.

“Although no executions have been carried out since 2016, courts across the country still regularly issue death sentences. In 2023, Nigerian courts issued over 246 new death sentences, raising the total number of individuals on death row to more than 3,413.”

In May 2024, the Senate proposed a bill to increase the maximum penalty for drug trafficking from life imprisonment to death, a move that has faced opposition from various stakeholders, including legislators, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime country representative, as well as activists and legal professionals.

“Such a proposal has reignited debate over the continued use of the death penalty in the country, with some authorities questioning the sustainability of retaining capital punishment.

“Further, although legal provisions allow for commutation of sentences by governors or chief judges after extended incarceration, inconsistencies in application have left many inmates in legal limbo,” said the report.

The Nigerian Correctional Service revealed in July 2025 that the country had 3,833 inmates on death row.

The report further stated that the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights has urged Nigeria to “impose a moratorium on executions, a stance supported by the European Union and United Nations.”

It added that the detention conditions remained “harsh,” falling short of United Nations minimum standards for prisoner treatment.

Media reports and information from the Nigerian Correctional Service website indicated that thousands of inmates have escaped from 13 custodial facilities between 2019 and 2025, including many awaiting trial for serious offences such as terrorism and armed robbery.

In response to the ongoing wave of jailbreaks that has plagued custodial centres nationwide over the past years, the Controller General of the Nigerian Correctional Service, Sylvester Nwakuche, recently vowed to enforce strict disciplinary action against any officers found to have been negligent.