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Fuel Subsidy Puts Nigerian Economy At High Risk, World Bank Warns

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The World Bank says increasing fuel subsidy puts the Nigerian economy at a high risk as subsidy payments could significantly impact public finance and pose debt sustainability concerns.

The Washington-based lender said this in a new biannual report known as Africa’s Pulse.

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According to the bank, Nigeria is projected to have a 3.8 per cent growth in 2022, adding that as an oil-dependent country, weak oil production hampers economic recovery.

It added that the increasing fuel subsidy poses a high risk to the country’s economic growth, despite the increase in oil prices.

The bank said, “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to increase to 3.8 per cent in 2022 and stabilise at 4 per cent in 2023-24. Real GDP growth was revised up by 1.2 percentage points for both periods compared with the previous forecast. Nigeria’s economy is still dependent on the oil sector. Oil-related revenue contributes 40 to 60 per cent of fiscal revenue, while oil and gas account for 80 to 90 per cent of total exports.

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READ ALSO: Fuel Subsidy Removal: Cleric Issues Warning To Buhari

“Weak oil production, below the OPEC quota, held back the recovery process. Although at a slower pace than the average seven per cent during the boom period, growth prospects for the Nigerian economy are somewhat bright thanks to high oil prices coupled with reforms initiated by the passing of the Petroleum Industry Act and the completion of the Dangote refinery expected in 2023.

“Risk remains high on increasing fuel subsidies, which could weigh heavily on public finance and pose debt sustainability concerns. Nevertheless, public debt as a percentage of GDP is currently moderate.”

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According to the World Bank, the high level of oil prices will affect countries that are shielding the impact on their consumers through fuel subsidies, such as Nigeria and Ethiopia.

It added that the high cost of fuel subsidies, due to the increase in oil prices, may deteriorate the country’s fiscal balance.

In 2021, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation said fuel subsidy gulped N1.43tn, although there was no record for under-recovery in January.

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The National Assembly has approved N4tn as fuel subsidy bill for 2022, which is an increase of 179.72 per cent over the previous year’s subsidy bill.

However, experts have warned the Federal Government that the N4tn fuel subsidy bill would adversely affect the country’s economy.

The Country Director, World Bank, Shubham Chaudhuri, had said Nigeria’s decision to postpone the full deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry by 18 months might cost the country over N4tn in subsidy payments on petrol in 2022.

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The World Bank country director, however, noted that while the World Bank could come up with advice on subsidy removal, its role was certainly not to dictate as it had no ability to do such.

Chaudhuri said, “With economics, really, you are not meant to make a political decision. What you are meant to do is to lay out what are the cons and consequences of different decisions.

“So that is what we are doing, we are just being very clear that this would come with a fiscal cost and the fiscal cost is the number, perhaps N4tn this year.”

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He said despite the fact that the price of oil had gone up, the rise in global crude oil prices was not helping Nigeria that much.

Industry figures seen on Sunday showed that the price of Brent, the crude against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, was $118.11 per barrel at 5.06pm Nigerian time, as it traded at the same rate the preceding day.

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Dangote Fuel Sells Cheaper In Togo Than In Nigeria – Falana Laments

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Human rights activist Femi Falana, SAN, has lamented that fuel taken from Dangote is cheaper in Togo than in Nigeria.

Falana expressed his concerns on Sunday while responding to questions in an interview on Politics Today, a programme on Channels Television.

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He urged the federal government to review the proposed 5 per cent fuel surcharge and ensure that further hardship is not imposed on Nigerians.

READ ALSO:Dangote Refinery Reduces Fuel Price Nationwide, Provides Update On Petrol Distribution

“I guess the government wants to go back to the drawing table and ensure that it is not accused of multiple taxes or double taxation because consumers will pay VAT for buying fuel. They will now put an additional 5 per cent tax.

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“I think this is what Nigerians are complaining about. And from what we just read today is that the Dangote fuel taken from Nigeria is now cheaper in Togo than in Nigeria I think about 65 naira.

“So, the government will have to review these developments (the proposed 5 per cent fuel surcharge) and ensure more hardship is not imposed on Nigerians,” he said.

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Falana Reveals Those Behind Subsidy Removal

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A Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Femi Falana, has once again criticised President Bola Tinubu’s removal of the fuel subsidy.

Speaking in an interview on Sunday’s Politics, a programme on Channels Television, the human rights activist stated that no country in the world has completely abolished subsidies.

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“There’s no way you can remove subsidy completely. No country in the entire world has abolished subsidies completely.

READ ALSO:Tinubu Subsidises Kidney Dialysis Cost By 76% In Federal Hospitals

Even leading Western countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, France and others subsidise electricity, agriculture, and many aspects of the lives of their people.

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“So, when the Nigerian Government said it was removing subsidies, as a matter of fact, if I must say this, it was the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, IMF, that insisted that the government must remove all subsidies,” he said.

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‘We Like Greek Gifts,’ Nigerians Blast NUPENG Over Dangote’s Fuel Price Reduction

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The decision of the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) to warn Nigerians against accepting Dangote Refinery’s recent fuel price reduction has drawn heavy backlash on social media, with many citizens mocking the union and embracing what they described as “much-needed relief.”

Dangote had announced lower petrol pump prices in several states alongside a new scheme to deploy compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks directly to filling stations, a move expected to reduce logistics costs.

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But NUPENG dismissed the offer as a “Greek gift,” alleging that the refinery was undermining workers’ rights, sidelining the union, and pushing drivers into a rival association.

However, netizens have lambasted the union, querying that during hard times, NUPENG has never supported the masses.

On X (formerly Twitter), Nigerians quickly turned NUPENG’s warning into a trending topic, using humour and sarcasm to lampoon the union.

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READ ALSO:NUPENG Accuses Dangote Of Breaching Agreement, Says Nationwide Strike Inevitable

Oloye Somorin Osifeso (@OloyeSomorin) wrote: “We like Greek gifts in my garage.”

Just Jude (@JustJude) asked bluntly: “Is it your deception?”

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Oladele (@Oladele) quipped: “As Dangote Refinery dey offer Nigerians Greek gift, why can’t NUPENG too offer Nigerians French gift?”

Agbalaka (@Agbalaka) queried: “Can they tell Nigerians what exactly they are fighting about?”

CBN Gov Akinsola (@Akinsola) joked: “Then give us Trojan gift now 😆. Man do man. Man no go vex.”

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Omobalaji (@Omobalaji) teased: “NUPENG, oya surprise us with Arabian gifts.”

READ ALSO:Union Gloves vs Corporate Fists: The Dangote–NUPENG Showdown

Habdulakeem Bahdmus (@BahdmusHabdulakeem) added: “If Dangote is showering Nigerians with Greek gift, NUPENG can also set up a Roman gift now.”

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Femi Yekinni (@FemiYekinni) steered it back to reality: “We thank them for their advice. Now, @DangoteGroup pls how do we schedule deliveries to Badagry?”

Curtis Abbi (@CurtisAbbi) slammed the union: “Nigerians will manage the Greek gift. @officialNUPENG9, what gift have you given Nigerians in your entire years of existence? NUPENG should offer Nigerians their own Somalian gift 🤣.”

Akin Adejola (@AkinAdejola) echoed the sentiment: “LOL. I can bet Nigerians don’t mind the gift. NUPENG should gift Nigerians same ‘Greek gift’ too if they have any goodwill. NUPENG is the enemy of progress in the oil & gas sector.”

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READ ALSO:NUPENG Tanker Drivers Announce Strike Over CNG Trucks Dispute

Adeola Akinwande (@adeolarewaju9) criticised union leaders: “Does NUPENG remember Nigerians at hard times? They have all failed Nigerians the same way the @NLCHeadquarters has failed. They are living big on unionism and cashing out big time. Without unionism, some of their excos are nobody. They should stop the crocodile tears.”

Okunwa U. U. Azikiwe (@OkunwaUUazikiwe) argued: “Competition has created jealousy by the previous monopoly in the sale of fuel. They have lost control, and it is paining them that they are no longer in control. SMH!!!”

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Solihull Abdulkareem (@SolihullAbdul) chipped in: “NUPENG or whatever, do you want the market to be monopoly? You’ve been doing what you want for many years. It’s time for change, just accept it and move forward.”

Temidayo (@Temidayo) asked: “It’s a lie. What benefits has your union provided for Nigerians? Middlemen syndrome has been room for corruption. Your association should go and buy shares in Dangote and work together to make Nigeria great.”

And LegalTech Sam Akanbi (@SamAkanbi) summed up: “Nigerians no longer want your Nigerian gift, we want the Greek gift. If you have a better offer, we’d abandon Dangote’s Greek gift and take yours. But for now, let the Greek gift go round.”

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READ ALSO:NUPENG Mobilises Tanker Drivers, Petrol Attendants, Others For October 3 Strike

Recall that NUPENG earlier alleged that Dangote Refinery was forcing truck drivers to abandon its union for a rival group, the Direct Trucking Company Drivers Association (DTCDA).

The union also accused Dangote of undermining collective bargaining rights and violating a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed under government supervision.

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Dangote, however, denies the claims, insisting that union membership remains voluntary and that its delivery scheme is designed to cut costs and ease supply.

The federal government has intervened, with the Ministry of Labour and the Department of State Services mediating between both parties.

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