Business

Fuel Subsidy Puts Nigerian Economy At High Risk, World Bank Warns

Published

3 years ago

April 18, 2022

The World Bank says increasing fuel subsidy puts the Nigerian economy at a high risk as subsidy payments could significantly impact public finance and pose debt sustainability concerns.

The Washington-based lender said this in a new biannual report known as Africa’s Pulse.

According to the bank, Nigeria is projected to have a 3.8 per cent growth in 2022, adding that as an oil-dependent country, weak oil production hampers economic recovery.

It added that the increasing fuel subsidy poses a high risk to the country’s economic growth, despite the increase in oil prices.

The bank said, “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to increase to 3.8 per cent in 2022 and stabilise at 4 per cent in 2023-24. Real GDP growth was revised up by 1.2 percentage points for both periods compared with the previous forecast. Nigeria’s economy is still dependent on the oil sector. Oil-related revenue contributes 40 to 60 per cent of fiscal revenue, while oil and gas account for 80 to 90 per cent of total exports.

“Weak oil production, below the OPEC quota, held back the recovery process. Although at a slower pace than the average seven per cent during the boom period, growth prospects for the Nigerian economy are somewhat bright thanks to high oil prices coupled with reforms initiated by the passing of the Petroleum Industry Act and the completion of the Dangote refinery expected in 2023.

“Risk remains high on increasing fuel subsidies, which could weigh heavily on public finance and pose debt sustainability concerns. Nevertheless, public debt as a percentage of GDP is currently moderate.”

According to the World Bank, the high level of oil prices will affect countries that are shielding the impact on their consumers through fuel subsidies, such as Nigeria and Ethiopia.

It added that the high cost of fuel subsidies, due to the increase in oil prices, may deteriorate the country’s fiscal balance.

In 2021, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation said fuel subsidy gulped N1.43tn, although there was no record for under-recovery in January.

The National Assembly has approved N4tn as fuel subsidy bill for 2022, which is an increase of 179.72 per cent over the previous year’s subsidy bill.

However, experts have warned the Federal Government that the N4tn fuel subsidy bill would adversely affect the country’s economy.

The Country Director, World Bank, Shubham Chaudhuri, had said Nigeria’s decision to postpone the full deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry by 18 months might cost the country over N4tn in subsidy payments on petrol in 2022.

The World Bank country director, however, noted that while the World Bank could come up with advice on subsidy removal, its role was certainly not to dictate as it had no ability to do such.

Chaudhuri said, “With economics, really, you are not meant to make a political decision. What you are meant to do is to lay out what are the cons and consequences of different decisions.

“So that is what we are doing, we are just being very clear that this would come with a fiscal cost and the fiscal cost is the number, perhaps N4tn this year.”

He said despite the fact that the price of oil had gone up, the rise in global crude oil prices was not helping Nigeria that much.

Industry figures seen on Sunday showed that the price of Brent, the crude against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, was $118.11 per barrel at 5.06pm Nigerian time, as it traded at the same rate the preceding day.

Business

Naira Continues To Appreciate Against Dollar On Official Market

Published

7 hours ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The naira continued its appreciation against the dollar at the foreign exchange market on Tuesday.

Accordingly, the naira strengthened further to N1,533.18 against the dollar on Tuesday, from N1,534.21 traded the previous day.

This represents a gain of N1.03 against the dollar on a day-to-day basis and marks the second consecutive day of appreciation at the official FX market.

Meanwhile, on the black market, the naira depreciated further to N1,545 per dollar on Tuesday from N1,537 traded on Monday.

Recall that the naira had similarly closed Monday’s trading session with mixed sentiments, recording gains at the official market but depreciating at the parallel market.

Business

Dangote Refinery Gets New CEO

Published

8 hours ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has appointed David Bird, the former head of Oman’s Duqm Refinery, as its new Chief Executive Officer.

A report by S&P global on Friday said, Bird heads the refinery’s petroleum and petrochemicals division in a strategic move to overcome production challenges and advance its next wave of expansion.

Effective from July 2025, the former Shell head of operations at its Balau Pokom refinery stepped in as CEO of the Dangote Group’s fuels and petrochemicals business, which commissioned the world’s largest single-train refinery last year.

Our correspondent also observed that the CEO participated at the just concluded Dangote Leadership Development Program Graduation Ceremony.

The appointment signals the company’s renewed focus on scaling production, streamlining operations, and positioning itself as a dominant force in Africa’s refining and petrochemical landscape.

The report read, “Nigeria’s Dangote Group has appointed the former head of Oman’s Duqm refinery as CEO of its petroleum and petrochemicals business as it strives to overcome production challenges and advance its next wave of expansion.”

It, however, noted that the Dangote Group founder Aliko Dangote, will remain as chairman of the refining business and CEO of the wider conglomerate, which is also active in cement, fertilizers and sugar refining.

The business is expected to tap Bird’s experience expanding the Duqm refinery and diversifying its crude slate as CEO of OQ8, a role he adopted months before the Omani complex began its first test runs in 2023.

Commenting on his appointment, Bird said his focus at Dangote will involve advancing the group’s footprint beyond the Nigerian market and across the African continent.

As CEO of the refining business, he will be responsible for ensuring maximum output and efficiency for the refinery, and aims to make the group a leader in the global market, a LinkedIn update noted.

The appointment comes after a string of unit upsets and “design issues” that have stalled the ramp-up process of the 650,000-b/d refinery, while its leadership has called out a hostile business environment for challenging its operations.

Since it was commissioned in January 2024, Dangote has quickly grown its market share in the Nigerian fuel sector, displacing large volumes of gasoline imports that the country once relied on.

However, Aliko Dangote has railed against “rent-seeking” trade partners and substandard fuel imports for putting strain on the business.

In a previous interview with Platts, Bird emphasised a trading-led approach to achieve a competitive edge in the refining sector, with a focus on high utilisation rates, efficiency and feedstock flexibility.

His approach aligns with a recent shift from the Dangote complex to process a wider range of crude grades, partially spurred by limited availability of the Nigerian oil it was designed to process.

However, the Nigerian refinery is still obliged to sell fixed volumes of its oil products into the domestic crude market under a naira-based trade agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, a 7.2 per cent stakeholder in the business.

As the Dangote Group eyes its next wave of growth, it plans to expand the capacity of the Lagos refinery to 700,000 barrels per day, build out port infrastructure and establish foreign storage assets in Namibia and other countries.

In August, it is set to roll out its own distribution business with a fleet of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks.

Dangote Group officials have also shared ambitions to list the refining business on the London and Lagos stock exchanges, and Aliko Dangote reiterated plans to take the business public.

After years of setbacks and budget challenges, the speed of the refinery’s ramp-up in 2024 caught many analysts by surprise, and the complex quickly began exerting pressure on global oil benchmarks as it began exporting its products.

Yet despite beginning test runs on its main gasoline outlet, the residue fluid catalytic cracker, in Q3 2024, the company has since suffered repeated outages on the unit in 2025, forcing it to rely on its lower-yield reformer and sacrifice output over extended periods.

Speaking to Platts earlier in July, a Dangote executive said the RFCC was running at 85 per cent. He denied reports that the company will undergo a planned turnaround on the unit in December.

According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, Nigeria exported some 220,000 b/d of petroleum products in July 2025, when outages at NNPC facilities made Dangote the country’s only active refiner.

The complex exported 30,000 b/d of residual fuel, a refining byproduct which would normally be kept on site for further processing in the RFCC under normal operations.

Exports continue to be dominated by jet fuel, which accounted for 45 per cent of total shipments, and gasoil with a 24 per cent share.

Business

Petrol Tankers To Stop Loading Beyond 45,000 Litres By October 1 – IPMAN

Published

9 hours ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The Western Zone of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria has said tankers will no longer load more than 45,000 litres of the product from October 1.

The Chairman of the zone, Chief Oyewole Akanni, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria in Ibadan on Friday.

Akanni stated that the measure was adopted in a joint meeting involving IPMAN, the government and other stakeholders, held to reduce the cases of petroleum tanker accidents.

The stakeholders, he said, are the Petroleum Tanker Drivers, Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority and oil marketers.

He said, “Before now, some tankers carried up to 90,000 or 60,000 litres, which was dangerous.

“Those big tankers damage our roads, as the trucks are made to carry far more than they were designed for.

“And when overloaded, they become unstable and fall, causing accidents.”

Akanni stated that the government had also mandated all tankers to install safety covers that prevent spillage in the event of a crash.

“With these covers, even if a tanker falls, fuel won’t spill, except if the tank is punctured,” he said.

He, however, lamented the activities of vandals, who deliberately puncture fallen tankers to steal fuel, describing it as a major challenge.

The IPMAN chairman also said that PTD discovered that most accidents occurred at night due to fatigue.

“We have, therefore, instructed drivers not to drive at night.

“Once it is 7.00 p.m., they must park and continue their journey by 7.00 a.m. the next day, but some still disobey this directive,” he said.

Akanni assured that IPMAN would continue to work with stakeholders to ensure that tanker-related accidents were minimised.

He said that the spate of fatalities had triggered federal interventions, calling for stricter regulations, mass education, and enforced safety reforms.

According to Akanni, the incidents form part of a broader wave of tanker disasters across Nigeria.

“These are marked by systemic failures, including overloading, poor infrastructure, inadequate enforcement, alongside dangerous public practices like fuel scooping,” he said.

NAN