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Fuel Subsidy Puts Nigerian Economy At High Risk, World Bank Warns

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The World Bank says increasing fuel subsidy puts the Nigerian economy at a high risk as subsidy payments could significantly impact public finance and pose debt sustainability concerns.

The Washington-based lender said this in a new biannual report known as Africa’s Pulse.

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According to the bank, Nigeria is projected to have a 3.8 per cent growth in 2022, adding that as an oil-dependent country, weak oil production hampers economic recovery.

It added that the increasing fuel subsidy poses a high risk to the country’s economic growth, despite the increase in oil prices.

The bank said, “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to increase to 3.8 per cent in 2022 and stabilise at 4 per cent in 2023-24. Real GDP growth was revised up by 1.2 percentage points for both periods compared with the previous forecast. Nigeria’s economy is still dependent on the oil sector. Oil-related revenue contributes 40 to 60 per cent of fiscal revenue, while oil and gas account for 80 to 90 per cent of total exports.

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READ ALSO: Fuel Subsidy Removal: Cleric Issues Warning To Buhari

“Weak oil production, below the OPEC quota, held back the recovery process. Although at a slower pace than the average seven per cent during the boom period, growth prospects for the Nigerian economy are somewhat bright thanks to high oil prices coupled with reforms initiated by the passing of the Petroleum Industry Act and the completion of the Dangote refinery expected in 2023.

“Risk remains high on increasing fuel subsidies, which could weigh heavily on public finance and pose debt sustainability concerns. Nevertheless, public debt as a percentage of GDP is currently moderate.”

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According to the World Bank, the high level of oil prices will affect countries that are shielding the impact on their consumers through fuel subsidies, such as Nigeria and Ethiopia.

It added that the high cost of fuel subsidies, due to the increase in oil prices, may deteriorate the country’s fiscal balance.

In 2021, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation said fuel subsidy gulped N1.43tn, although there was no record for under-recovery in January.

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The National Assembly has approved N4tn as fuel subsidy bill for 2022, which is an increase of 179.72 per cent over the previous year’s subsidy bill.

However, experts have warned the Federal Government that the N4tn fuel subsidy bill would adversely affect the country’s economy.

The Country Director, World Bank, Shubham Chaudhuri, had said Nigeria’s decision to postpone the full deregulation of the downstream sector of the petroleum industry by 18 months might cost the country over N4tn in subsidy payments on petrol in 2022.

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The World Bank country director, however, noted that while the World Bank could come up with advice on subsidy removal, its role was certainly not to dictate as it had no ability to do such.

Chaudhuri said, “With economics, really, you are not meant to make a political decision. What you are meant to do is to lay out what are the cons and consequences of different decisions.

“So that is what we are doing, we are just being very clear that this would come with a fiscal cost and the fiscal cost is the number, perhaps N4tn this year.”

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He said despite the fact that the price of oil had gone up, the rise in global crude oil prices was not helping Nigeria that much.

Industry figures seen on Sunday showed that the price of Brent, the crude against which Nigeria’s oil is priced, was $118.11 per barrel at 5.06pm Nigerian time, as it traded at the same rate the preceding day.

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NNPCL Reduces Fuel Price After Dangote Refinery’s Adjustment

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reduced its premium motor spirit pump price on Thursday, according to DAILY POST.

It was confirmed that NNPCL retail outlets in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, have reduced their pump price to N890 per litre from N945.

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This new fuel price has been reflected in NNPCL retail outlets such as mega station Danziyal Plaza, Central Area, Wuse Zone 4, Wuse Zone 6, and other of its filling stations in the nation’s capital.

READ ALSO:N5bn Damage: NNPCL Secures Appeal Court Victory Against Ararume

The latest downward review of fuel price in NNPCL outlets represents an N55 reduction in fuel pump price.

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It was reduced to N890 per litre this afternoon, down from N945,” an NNPCL fuel attendant told DAILY POST anonymously on Thursday.

This comes a Nigerian filling station, MRS Empire Energy, on Thursday adjusted their fuel pump price to N885 and N946 per litre, down from N910 and N955 per litre.

The latest fuel price reduction trend is unconnected to Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot petrol price adjustment by N30 to N820 per litre from N850 and the price of crude oil in the international market.

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Dangote Refinery Reduces Fuel Price

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a reduction in the ex-depot (gantry) price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, commonly known as petrol, by N30, from N850 to N820 per litre, effective from August 12, 2025.

This was disclosed in a statement by the company’s spokesman, Anthony Chijiena, on Tuesday.

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The 650,000-barrel-per-day plant said the move is part of its unwavering commitment to national development, assuring the public of a consistent and uninterrupted supply of petroleum products.

READ ALSO:Dangote Refinery Gets New CEO

In line with our dedication to operational excellence and sustainable energy solutions, Dangote Petroleum Refinery will commence the phased deployment of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks for fuel distribution across Nigeria, effective August 15, 2025,” said Chijiena.

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The announcement comes as the refinery prepares to commence direct fuel distribution nationwide. The development is expected to lead petroleum product marketers to reduce their pump prices in the coming days.

In Abuja, the retail fuel price stood between N885 and N970 per litre as of Tuesday evening.

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Indian Refiners Abandon Russia For Nigerian Crude, As Dangote Refinery Relies On US

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India Refineries have abandoned Russian crude for Nigerian crude, while domestic refiner Dangote Refinery relies heavily on West Texas Intermediate crude from the United States of America.

This followed a recent sanction threat by US president Donald Trump on India over continued patronage of Russian crude.

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According to Reuters, industry sources said that Indian Oil Corporation recently bought one million barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude for September 2025 delivery in a tender awarded to global trader Trafigura.

Also included are one million barrels of Angola Girassol, one million barrels of US Mars, three million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban, and two million barrels of Nigerian oil, according to Reuters.

READ ALSO:‘My Eyes Dey Your Body’: Drama As Portable Professes Love For Regina Daniels

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The report noted that the purchase is part of a broader sourcing spree that has seen Indian refiners secure millions of barrels from non-Russian sources post July 2025.

Meanwhile, Indian refiners secured purchases of Nigerian crude grades; the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, is relying on around 60 percent on US and other imoorts to feed its processing units.

Data showed that the refinery imported an average of 10 million barrels in July 2025, saying it was increasingly relying on the US for its feedstock despite the naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government, which kicked off in October last year.

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According to Reuters, the Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have bought a million barrels of non-Russian crude billed for delivery in September and October after the US pressured India to halt purchases from Russia.

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Indian state refiners had been largely absent from the Nigerian crude market spotlight since 2022; they have in the past concentrated on Russian crude amid the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, the Indian refiners paused Russian purchases in late July 2025 after pressure from US President Donald Trump.

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On the part of Dangote Refinery, data from commodities analytics firm Kpler showed that in July, US barrels accounted for about 60 percent of Dangote’s 590,000 barrels per day of crude intake, with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40 percent.

In July, the Dangote refinery’s crude imports surged to a record 590 kbd—driven largely by US barrels overtaking Nigerian supply for the first time—amid ongoing domestic sourcing challenges, Kpler reports.

“While WTI has held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, this is the first time US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply—a shift driven by several factors,” Kpler stated.

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