Business
IMF Retains Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast At 3.2%

The International Monetary Fund, IMF has retained its 3.2 forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2023.
Meanwhile, the IMF lowered its forecast for Sub-Saharan economic growth in 2023 by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5 per cent.
The Fund however raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2023 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 per cent.
The forecasts were disclosed in the IMF World Economic Outlook, WEO Update, July, titled “Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges.”
The IMF said: “Global growth is projected to fall from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024 on an annual average basis. Compared with projections in the April 2023 WEO, growth has been upgraded by 0.2 percentage point for 2023, with no change for 2024.
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“The forecast for 2023–24 remains well below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8 percent. It is also below the historical average across broad income groups, in overall GDP as well as per capita GDP terms.
“Advanced economies continue to drive the decline in growth from 2022 to 2023, with weaker manufacturing, as well as idiosyncratic factors, offsetting stronger services activity. In emerging market and developing economies, the growth outlook is broadly stable for 2023 and 2024, although with notable shifts across regions.
“On a year-over-year basis, global growth bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, in some major economies, it is not expected to bottom out before the second half of 2023.
“In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to decline to 3.5 percent in 2023 before picking up to 4.1 percent in 2024. Growth in Nigeria in 2023 and 2024 is projected to gradually decline, in line with April projections, reflecting security issues in the oil sector.
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“In South Africa, growth is expected to decline to 0.3 percent in 2023, with the decline reflecting power shortages, although the forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point since the April 2023 WEO, on account of resilience in services activity in the first quarter.”
Advising governments on policy priorities, the IMF said: “In most economies, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability.
“Therefore, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthening financial supervision and risk monitoring. Should market strains materialize, countries should provide liquidity promptly while mitigating the possibility of moral hazard.
“They should also build fiscal buffers, with the composition of fiscal adjustment ensuring targeted support for the most vulnerable. Improvements to the supply side of the economy would facilitate fiscal consolidation and a smoother decline of inflation toward target levels.”
Business
Naira Records Highest Depreciation Against US Dollar

The Naira recorded the highest depreciation against the United States dollar at the official foreign exchange on Friday to end the week on a negative note.
Central Bank of Nigeria data showed that the Naira extended its dip on Friday to N1,423.17 against the dollar, down from N1,419.72 traded on Thursday.
This represents a N3.45 depreciation against the dollar on a day-to-day basis, the highest in the week under review and in 2026 so far.
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Meanwhile, at the black market, the naira remained at N1,490 per dollar on Friday, the same rate recorded on Thursday.
In the other week, the Naira recorded three gains and two losses against the US dollar and other currencies.
The development comes amid the continued rise in the country’s external reserves, which hit $45.67 billion as of January 8, 2026.
Business
KPMG Flags Five Major ‘Errors’ In Nigerian Tax Laws

Fresh apprehension has surfaced over Nigeria’s newly implemented tax framework after KPMG Nigeria highlighted what it described as “errors, inconsistencies, gaps, and omissions” in the new tax laws that took effect on January 1, 2026. The professional services firm in a recent statement cautioned that failure to address these issues could weaken the overall objectives of the tax reforms.
Nigeria’s tax overhaul is built around four major legislations: the Nigeinpieces of legislation:ria Tax Act (NTA), the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) Establishment Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (JRB) Establishment Act. The laws were signed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in June 2025 and formally commenced in 2026. However, the reforms have continued to attract controversy since they were first introduced in October 2024.
Despite the concerns, government officials have consistently described the reforms as essential to improving Nigeria’s low tax-to-GDP ratio and modernisingpieces of legislation:modernizing the country’s tax system in line with evolving economic conditions.
In a detailed review, KPMG outlined several areas of concern.
Capital gains, inflation modernizing inflation and market response
KPMG flagged Sections 39 and 40 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which require capital gains to be calculated as the difference between sale proceeds and the tax-written-down value of assets, without adjusting for inflation. According to the firm, this approach is problematic given Nigeria’s prolonged high-inflation environment.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that headline inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive years, averaging over 18 percent between 2022 and 2025. Over the same period, asset prices have been significantly influenced by currency depreciation and general price increases.
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Market data also reflects investor sensitivity to tax policy changes. Although the NGX All-Share Index gained more than 50 percent over the year and market capitalisation inflation,capitalization approached N99.4 trillion, equities experienced sharp sell-offs in late 2025. In November alone, market value reportedly declined by about N6.5 trillion amid uncertainty surrounding the new capital gains tax regime.
KPMG warned that taxing nominal gains in such an environment could result in investors paying tax on inflation-driven increases rather than real economic gains. The firm recommended introducing a cost indexation mechanism to adjust asset values for inflation, noting that this would reduce distortions while still enabling the government to earn revenue from genuine capital appreciation.
Indirect transfers and foreign investment concerns
Attention was also drawn to Section 47 of the Nigeria Tax Act, which subjects gains from indirect transfers by non-residents to Nigerian tax where the transactions affect ownership of Nigerian companies or assets.
This provision comes at a time of subdued foreign investment. Figures from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development indicate that foreign direct investment inflows into Nigeria remain below pre-2019 levels, reflecting ongoing investor caution.
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While similar rules exist in other countries, KPMG noted that they are often supported by detailed guidance and clear thresholds. The firm advised Nigerian tax authorities to issue comprehensive administrative guidelines to clarify scope, thresholds,capitalizationthresholds, and reporting obligations inorder to reduce disputes and limit potential negative effects on foreign investment.
Foreign exchange deductions and business impact
Another issue identified relates to Section 24 of the Act, which restricts businesses from deducting foreign-currencyforeign currency expenses beyond their naira equivalent at the official Central Bank of Nigeria exchange rate.
In reality, limited access to official foreign exchange forces many companies to source FX at higher parallel market rates. Under the current rule, the additional cost becomes non-deductible, effectively increasing taxable profits and overall tax liabilities.
KPMG observed that although the provision aims to discourage FX speculation, it does not adequately reflect supply constraints. The firm recommended allowing deductions based on actual costs incurred, provided transactions are properly documented, to avoid penalisingforeign currencypenalizing businesses for factors outside their control.
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VAT-related expense disallowances
Section 21(p) of the Nigeria Tax Act also came under scrutiny for disallowing deductions on expenses where VAT was not charged, even if the costs were entirely business-related.
Given Nigeria’s large informal sector and persistent VAT compliance gaps, analysts argue that the rule unfairly shifts part of the VAT enforcement burden onto compliant taxpayers. KPMG advised that the provision be removed or significantly amended, stressing that expense deductibility should be based on whether costs were wholly and necessarily incurred for business, while VAT compliance should be enforced directly on defaulting suppliers.
Non-resident taxation uncertainties
KPMG further highlighted ambiguities around the compliance obligations of non-resident companies. While the Nigeria Tax Act recognizespenalizingrecognizes withholding tax as the finalthe final tax for certain nonresident payments in the absence of a permanent establishment or significant economic presence, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act does not clearly exempt such entities from registration and filing requirements.
Nigeria’s network of double taxation treaties, including agreements with the UK, South Africa, Canada, and France, generally supports the principle that final withholding tax extinguishes further obligations. Experts warn that inconsistencies between the laws could create uncertainty and discourage foreign participation.
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KPMG recommended harmonizing the relevant provisions of the NTA and NTAA, with explicit exemptions for non-resident companies whose tax obligations have been fully settled through withholding tax. The firm noted that such alignment would ease compliance and enhance Nigeria’s appeal for cross-border transactions.
As Nigeria undertakes its most extensive tax reform in decades, KPMG concluded that the success of the overhaul will depend on clarity, consistency, and alignment with international best practices. Without timely amendments, businesses may face higher costs, foreign investors could remain cautious, and capital markets may continue to experience volatility.
Recall that KPMG concerns come after a lawmaker, Abdulsamman Dasuki, raised alarm over alleged alterations to the gazetted tax laws.
(DAILY POST)
Business
Naira Records First Depreciation Against US Dollar In 2026

The Naira recorded its first depreciation against the United States dollar in the official foreign exchange market on Thursday, the first time in 2026 so far.
The Central Bank of Nigeria’s data showed that it weakened on Thursday after days of gains to N 1,419.72 per dollar, down from N 1,418.26 on Wednesday.
This means that for the first time this year, the Naira dipped by N1.46 against the dollar on a day-to-day basis.
READ ALSO:Naira Continues Gain Against US Dollar As Nigeria’s Foreign Reserves Climb To $45.57bn
Similarly, the Naira also depreciated by N10 at the black market to N1,490 on Thursday, down from the N1,480 recorded the previous day.
This comes despite the continued rise in the country’s foreign reserves to $45.64 billion as of Wednesday, 7th January 2026.
DAILY POST reports that the Naira recorded a seven-day bullish run at the official foreign exchange before Thursday’s decline.
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