Business

Nigeria’s Debt Vulnerable, Costly, Alerts World Bank

Published

4 years ago

January 4, 2022

The World Bank has disclosed that Nigeria’s debt, which may be considered sustainable for now, is vulnerable and costly.

According to the Washington-based global financial institution, the country’s debt is also at risk of becoming unsustainable in the event of macro-fiscal shocks.

The bank said this in the November edition of its Nigeria Development Update.

It said, “Nigeria’s debt remains sustainable, albeit vulnerable and costly, especially due to large and growing financing from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

“While currently the debt stock of 27 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product is considered sustainable, any macro-fiscal shock can push debt to unsustainable levels.

“However, the debt to the GDP in Nigeria is rising quickly, and the total stock of debt in absolute value has almost doubled between 2016 and 2020, and without a policy change is expected to reach 40 per cent of the GDP by 2025.”

The bank further expressed concerns over the nation’s cost of debt servicing, which according to it, disrupts public investments and critical service delivery spending.

“The cost of debt servicing is also a concern as it is potentially crowding out public investment and critical service delivery spending. Interest costs have been above two per cent of the GDP since 2018, reaching 2.4 per cent of the GDP in 2019 and then falling to 2.2 per cent of the GDP in 2020.

“Cost of debt is high as Federal Government also resorts to overdraft (Ways and Means financing) from the CBN to meet in-year cash shortfalls. At end of 2020, the stock of the CBN Ways and Means financing was estimated at N13.1tn or 8.5 per cent of the GDP,” it stated.

It, however, said that the Federal Government was making efforts to negotiate terms with the CBN in order to convert the stock of overdraft financing into a long-term debt instrument, which would lower the cost of debt for the government and enhance fiscal sustainability over the medium long term.

Economists have raised concerns over the rising debt profile of the Federal Government.

The PUNCH had exclusively reported that the Federal Government was planning to push its public debt stock to N50.22tn by 2023, with domestic debt at N28.75tn and external debt at N21.47tn.

This was according to the projections in the National Development Plan 2021-2025.

The Debt Management Office had disclosed that Nigeria’s public debt was N38tn as of the end of the third quarter of 2021, with the total debt stock rising by N2.540tn in three months between July and September 2021.

The NDP shows that the regime of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), plans to accumulate about N12tn debt in two years from 2021 to 2023.

However, based on the plan, the government targets a reduction in total public debt by 2025.

A tabular illustration in the document shows the government targets N39.59tn debt stock for 2021, N46.63tn for 2022, N50.22tn for 2023, N50.53tn for 2024, and N45.96tn by 2025.

Analysts have agreed with the World Bank on the costly and vulnerable nature of Nigeria’s public debt.

The Fiscal Policy Partner and Africa Tax Leader of PwC, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, expressed his agreement with the World Bank’s assertion, highlighting the high cost of debt servicing.

He said, “I agree with the World Bank. Although the debt to GDP ratio is not too high, if you think about the debt service cost to revenue ratio, it is already over 70 per cent. That’s when you know it’s costly.

“Nigeria borrows at double-digit, and even when we borrow in dollars, the rates are very high and then you devalue the naira and the cost of servicing the debt in naira goes up because it is dollar-dominated debt.

“Put all of that together, and you can easily say to yourself that even though our debt to GDP ratio is very low, our cost of borrowing is unsustainable because it is very high, and therefore, make it very costly.”

He advised the government to have an integrated debt-revenue-expenditure strategy, which would address expenditure efficiency, terms of borrowing, and revenue optimisation.

He also advised the government to reconsider its priorities regarding its national budget.

A former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and former presidential candidate, Kingsley Moghalu, also criticised the increasing borrowing tendency of the government, urging the officials to re-consider other ways of generating revenue for the country.

“There are many ways through which we can improve Nigeria’s domestic revenue situation without selling the future of our country. As to the argument that Nigeria does not have a debt problem but a revenue problem, that is mere sophistry. If you’re spending 90kobo of every one naira you earn repaying debt, you are insolvent.

“You cannot say that we have a debt-to-GDP ratio that allows you to continue borrowing. No! That is an argument for sustainable economies. You cannot be comparing Nigeria with advanced economies. We are in an economy that is still very basic.

“If you are not earning enough revenue, why are you borrowing? You are just compounding your problem. Why don’t you focus on where to get the revenue from instead of lazily ignoring that problem and just trying to survive with borrowing?

“If an individual was living a life that way, it would be a calamity. That is why Nigeria is in a calamitous situation today economically,” he said.

According to Moghalu, it is also not reasonable to borrow for infrastructural development as the government can expand the public-private partnership options for such development.

He said, “You cannot be borrowing for infrastructure. They should go and expand the PPP options for infrastructure.

“You don’t have to impoverish this country by borrowing. This is not sensible economic management.

“How sustainable economically are those infrastructures they claim to be building? Are they yielding enough money to pay back the debt?”

(PUNCH)

Business

Naira Continues To Appreciate Against Dollar On Official Market

Published

2 days ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The naira continued its appreciation against the dollar at the foreign exchange market on Tuesday.

Accordingly, the naira strengthened further to N1,533.18 against the dollar on Tuesday, from N1,534.21 traded the previous day.

This represents a gain of N1.03 against the dollar on a day-to-day basis and marks the second consecutive day of appreciation at the official FX market.

Meanwhile, on the black market, the naira depreciated further to N1,545 per dollar on Tuesday from N1,537 traded on Monday.

Recall that the naira had similarly closed Monday’s trading session with mixed sentiments, recording gains at the official market but depreciating at the parallel market.

Business

Dangote Refinery Gets New CEO

Published

2 days ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has appointed David Bird, the former head of Oman’s Duqm Refinery, as its new Chief Executive Officer.

A report by S&P global on Friday said, Bird heads the refinery’s petroleum and petrochemicals division in a strategic move to overcome production challenges and advance its next wave of expansion.

Effective from July 2025, the former Shell head of operations at its Balau Pokom refinery stepped in as CEO of the Dangote Group’s fuels and petrochemicals business, which commissioned the world’s largest single-train refinery last year.

Our correspondent also observed that the CEO participated at the just concluded Dangote Leadership Development Program Graduation Ceremony.

The appointment signals the company’s renewed focus on scaling production, streamlining operations, and positioning itself as a dominant force in Africa’s refining and petrochemical landscape.

The report read, “Nigeria’s Dangote Group has appointed the former head of Oman’s Duqm refinery as CEO of its petroleum and petrochemicals business as it strives to overcome production challenges and advance its next wave of expansion.”

It, however, noted that the Dangote Group founder Aliko Dangote, will remain as chairman of the refining business and CEO of the wider conglomerate, which is also active in cement, fertilizers and sugar refining.

The business is expected to tap Bird’s experience expanding the Duqm refinery and diversifying its crude slate as CEO of OQ8, a role he adopted months before the Omani complex began its first test runs in 2023.

Commenting on his appointment, Bird said his focus at Dangote will involve advancing the group’s footprint beyond the Nigerian market and across the African continent.

As CEO of the refining business, he will be responsible for ensuring maximum output and efficiency for the refinery, and aims to make the group a leader in the global market, a LinkedIn update noted.

The appointment comes after a string of unit upsets and “design issues” that have stalled the ramp-up process of the 650,000-b/d refinery, while its leadership has called out a hostile business environment for challenging its operations.

Since it was commissioned in January 2024, Dangote has quickly grown its market share in the Nigerian fuel sector, displacing large volumes of gasoline imports that the country once relied on.

However, Aliko Dangote has railed against “rent-seeking” trade partners and substandard fuel imports for putting strain on the business.

In a previous interview with Platts, Bird emphasised a trading-led approach to achieve a competitive edge in the refining sector, with a focus on high utilisation rates, efficiency and feedstock flexibility.

His approach aligns with a recent shift from the Dangote complex to process a wider range of crude grades, partially spurred by limited availability of the Nigerian oil it was designed to process.

However, the Nigerian refinery is still obliged to sell fixed volumes of its oil products into the domestic crude market under a naira-based trade agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company, a 7.2 per cent stakeholder in the business.

As the Dangote Group eyes its next wave of growth, it plans to expand the capacity of the Lagos refinery to 700,000 barrels per day, build out port infrastructure and establish foreign storage assets in Namibia and other countries.

In August, it is set to roll out its own distribution business with a fleet of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks.

Dangote Group officials have also shared ambitions to list the refining business on the London and Lagos stock exchanges, and Aliko Dangote reiterated plans to take the business public.

After years of setbacks and budget challenges, the speed of the refinery’s ramp-up in 2024 caught many analysts by surprise, and the complex quickly began exerting pressure on global oil benchmarks as it began exporting its products.

Yet despite beginning test runs on its main gasoline outlet, the residue fluid catalytic cracker, in Q3 2024, the company has since suffered repeated outages on the unit in 2025, forcing it to rely on its lower-yield reformer and sacrifice output over extended periods.

Speaking to Platts earlier in July, a Dangote executive said the RFCC was running at 85 per cent. He denied reports that the company will undergo a planned turnaround on the unit in December.

According to S&P Global Commodities at Sea data, Nigeria exported some 220,000 b/d of petroleum products in July 2025, when outages at NNPC facilities made Dangote the country’s only active refiner.

The complex exported 30,000 b/d of residual fuel, a refining byproduct which would normally be kept on site for further processing in the RFCC under normal operations.

Exports continue to be dominated by jet fuel, which accounted for 45 per cent of total shipments, and gasoil with a 24 per cent share.

Business

Petrol Tankers To Stop Loading Beyond 45,000 Litres By October 1 – IPMAN

Published

2 days ago

August 1, 2025

Editor

The Western Zone of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria has said tankers will no longer load more than 45,000 litres of the product from October 1.

The Chairman of the zone, Chief Oyewole Akanni, disclosed this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria in Ibadan on Friday.

Akanni stated that the measure was adopted in a joint meeting involving IPMAN, the government and other stakeholders, held to reduce the cases of petroleum tanker accidents.

The stakeholders, he said, are the Petroleum Tanker Drivers, Nigerian Association of Road Transport Owners, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority and oil marketers.

He said, “Before now, some tankers carried up to 90,000 or 60,000 litres, which was dangerous.

“Those big tankers damage our roads, as the trucks are made to carry far more than they were designed for.

“And when overloaded, they become unstable and fall, causing accidents.”

Akanni stated that the government had also mandated all tankers to install safety covers that prevent spillage in the event of a crash.

“With these covers, even if a tanker falls, fuel won’t spill, except if the tank is punctured,” he said.

He, however, lamented the activities of vandals, who deliberately puncture fallen tankers to steal fuel, describing it as a major challenge.

The IPMAN chairman also said that PTD discovered that most accidents occurred at night due to fatigue.

“We have, therefore, instructed drivers not to drive at night.

“Once it is 7.00 p.m., they must park and continue their journey by 7.00 a.m. the next day, but some still disobey this directive,” he said.

Akanni assured that IPMAN would continue to work with stakeholders to ensure that tanker-related accidents were minimised.

He said that the spate of fatalities had triggered federal interventions, calling for stricter regulations, mass education, and enforced safety reforms.

According to Akanni, the incidents form part of a broader wave of tanker disasters across Nigeria.

“These are marked by systemic failures, including overloading, poor infrastructure, inadequate enforcement, alongside dangerous public practices like fuel scooping,” he said.

NAN