By Lasisi Olagunju

“I am a defector, my dictionary defines the act of defecting as ‘abandoning a person or a cause, apostacy, revolt, backsliding.’ Not to put too fine an edge on it, I am a traitor…” (Joseph Frolik in ‘The Frolik Defection: The Memoirs of an Intelligence Agent’).

If in 2003 Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu did what Ifeanyi Okowa and the Delta State governor did in April 2025, he would not be president in 2023. Tinubu is president because long ago, he knew the power of staying strong, holding on and rowing hard inside his own boat. He clearly knew that “tough times don’t last, only tough people do.” It is the reason he stands.

If Tinubu had insisted on contesting the presidency in 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019, he would have lost on each of those occasions. And, losing exhausts and dissipates the loser. And, if he lost on those successive occasions, by now, he would be ragged, tired and thrashed. I hope all serial entitled contesters would reflect on this.

If Tinubu had refused to back down on his vice presidential ambition in 2015, and had, in anger, poured salt into the engine of his party, he would not have, in 2023, succeeded the man who jilted him and their agreement.

If Tinubu had vowed ‘Senate or nothing’ in 2007, where would he have been today? He tried going to the Senate in 2007. There was a storm. He used his might to pick the ticket but found it too hot for him to hold without losing his prized Lagos. He weighed the trophies, dropped the Senate ticket for Ganiyu Solomon and retained Lagos. He said: “I had obtained and filled the INEC form to go to the Senate, then I realised that I have a governorship candidate, Mr Babatunde Fashola and Obasanjo was the president, determined to win Lagos State. I told myself, ‘if I go ahead I will strive to win my seat while leaving Fashola to his fate’. Then one morning, I called Gani (Ganiyu Solomon) and told him to follow me to Abuja, we landed and off we went to INEC office, withdrew my form and handed him another form. Gani was shocked, he asked me for what sir, I said fill the form, he did and that was how I was able to concentrate in the governorship election, Fashola won and Gani (Solomon) also won his seat. We must make sacrifices.” If Tinubu had insisted on going to the Senate in 2007 and had lost Lagos that time, he probably would not be president of Nigeria today.

MORE FROM THE AUTHOR: OPINION: The President Is My Brother, I Shall Not Talk…

If Tinubu had, like the Delta defectors, feared arrest and trial for his sins (and we are all sinners), he would have abandoned his ACN and run into Goodluck Jonathan’s party in 2011. That was when the Code of Conduct Bureau got him arrested and the Code of Conduct Tribunal docked and took his plea for offending the law. And, if he had caved in that time, he would not be Commander-in-Chief today. Right before him this hour, those who arrested and tried him yesterday are on their knees. With total submission, they bow and pay him in hard currencies of homage and obeisance.

I have always believed that a life of political engagement is full of perks but fraught with risks. People should be ready to take the heat of those risks or they get out of the kitchen.

The vice presidency is just one life away from the very top job. Senator Ifeanyi Okowa almost became our vice president in 2023. Last week, he proved that he was (and forever is) unworthy of being in the presidency. He abandoned the rudder and jumped into the ship of the enemy. If he had been vice president and, like Goodluck Jonathan, become president, he most probably would have pleaded being under pressure and handed over our country to the enemy across the border. A trainee who jumped ship would sell his craft to the enemy if put in the cockpit.

Defectors are deserters. In war, desertion is a capital offence. William May in his ‘The Sin Against the Friend: Betrayal’ holds that betrayal and treason are babies of the same womb. He says: “Every act of betrayal—whether public or private—involves a very simple triad: the betrayer, the betrayed, and the enemy. In its primary form, the sin may be defined as a deed whereby we deliver into the hands of the enemy those who have placed themselves trustingly into our hands.” The Latin root for the terms ‘betrayal’ and ‘treason’, May says, is ‘tradere’ which means to “hand over, to hand on, to deliver, hence to betray.” The Greek word for ‘betray’ is ‘paradidomi’. It also means literally “to hand over or to deliver over” someone or something under one’s care. I heard those who defected in Delta State promising to deliver their people to their enemy in the next elections. Their act, their words and their lineup ghastly define betrayal with all its synonyms.

MORE FROM THE AUTHOR: OPINION: For the Yoruba Of Northern Nigeria [Monday Line]

I heard the acting chairman of the PDP, Umar Damagum, saying the next election won’t be about how many governors a party controls. Really? He referenced Peter Obi, candidate without governors, whose velocity and momentum harvested votes in hurricane proportions in 2023. Perhaps, Obi would have won that election if he had just four governors to write some more election results for him. But he had none to match those who had heist for heist. Regime politicians who are buying governors and ex-governors; who are gathering dry wood and wet wood know the degree of fire they need to cook their enemies in the next desperate contest for food, power and privileges.

All armies know the worth of proven horses of war. That is why no side in war condones defection. A political party is an army just as politics is war. An army properly called, at great and in all costs, forbids desertion. When an army is fissured to the extent that it cannot keep its troops and commanders, its fate won’t be about just losing the present or the next war; it will die. Splits and side switching kill armies and their troops; depletion of human assets pushes a political party into the Intensive Care Unit.

Like Sango, Tinubu falls on his enemies like the blacksmith’s hammer. Bola Tinubu is not yet half-way into his first term but he is already all out buying all sorts of broke and terrified players in the other companies. Even Kwankwaso, owner of Kano and its two million votes, may soon steam his own ship under so that in peace and tranquility Tinubu’s submarine will sail smoothly into 2027. The proprietor of the NNPP was at the Villa a few days ago where he described the president as his brother and friend since 1992. Can the PDP and all who seek to dethrone Tinubu in 2027 find out why people who leave this president’s fold always go back to him and those he takes rarely leave? Why does he not lose his prized officers and men to his enemies?

But how useful will these defectors be to Tinubu’s army? Village nut crackers know what it means to expend energy and resources on nuts that lack kernels. I read stuffs online and listen to informed commentaries in critical circles. One stakeholder agreed that if Tinubu had behaved like the defectors, he won’t be in power today but queried how terrified, captured troops would be able to deliver victory to their captors. He said, “Even if INEC decamps to APC, it won’t change anything. The people will not support them (the defectors) since they did not join APC on account of any sterling performance or out of love for Tinubu.”

Some others say the defection blitzkrieg from the battle tanks of the potentate in Abuja was a counter-offensive. Regime loyalists say the defections were brilliant results of deft moves of the only political genius in Nigeria. A newspaper headline yesterday said ‘Tinubu’s counter-attack scatters opposition.’ The wounded parties say the fisher of men caught his latest captives with bribe or bludgeon – or both. Whichever, the man deserves some applause and I am giving it to him. But that appears to be where it ends.
Why is the genius in politics not felt in governance? Or is politicking both the means and the end of politicking? The World Bank said last week that more Nigerians will fall into poverty in 2027. Every Nigerian knows this projection to be an understatement. The prediction is already true in 2025. Yet, a genius is in charge of our affairs.

MORE FROM THE AUTHOR: [OPINION] Lugard: 80 Years After

As elections come, and elections go, hunger and insecurity worsen for the people; the system decays while politicians who run it get better. Privileged power elite in the south are busy messing up themselves in the banquet hall. From the elite of the north comes a stream of threats of doing Pakistan if this India won’t be theirs to use and keep. The people are not the reason for the threats. The entire north – north west and north east and north central – is wracked by mass poverty, mass hunger, mass death. The United Nations in January this year, in a report, painted a horrific picture of what life and living in Nigeria, particularly in the north, would be this year: “In 2025, 33 million people in Nigeria will face acute food insecurity during the lean season with alarming levels of malnutrition threatening millions of children. In Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states, 5.1 million people will be affected.” The report added that 3.6 million people were already in need of life-saving assistance in those states while “a total of 7.8 million people are considered to be in need of humanitarian assistance.” The UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Mohamed Malick Fall, who read the report said the needs were “driven by conflict, climate shocks, and economic instability”, with the compounding effects of flooding, disease outbreaks, food insecurity and malnutrition deepening vulnerabilities. You won’t hear the elite issue threats because of these; they won’t hold conclaves on these because these problems are not theirs to suffer. Vulnerability is never an elite malaise. They would rather jump ship than suffer any loss of altitude.

“Seasons come and go, but nothing ever happens. We are never saved.” That sums up our situation. It is the simplification – or domestication – of a verse of despair and helplessness in the Bible: “The harvest is past, the summer is ended, and we are not saved” (Jeremiah 8:20). The despair in that verse is followed by a barrage of desperate, desolate demands: “Is there no balm in Gilead? Is there no physician there? Why then is there no healing of the land?” You and I know why there can’t be any healing of this land. If this land is healed and made to walk, our doctors will lose their job, their billions will lose value and their status debased.

The president comes on fiery as Sango. Sango is the spirit that commands relatives of his victims to come give thanks. Worshippers of Sango say he folds his arms deceitfully before causing havoc (Ebiri ká’wó pòn’yìn s’oró). They say he is the owner of the jungle from whom people must run (Oní’gbèé à n sá fún). They call Sango gatherer and keeper of important heads for special use (A sa nlá nlá orí pa mó). He is the one who fights dirty and still maintains his innocence. To President Tinubu I present this tribute.

A brilliant ex Tribune, ex The Guardian top journalist (now in the US) gasped at the game of Delta. He chose to salute our Sango and his feat in his own words – these: “The Lagosisation of Abuja is fully on course. The judiciary. Checked. The legislature. Checked. The five fingers of a leprous hand, well on course. What’s left? A Daniel Kanu for the mother of all rallies — one million man march! Could anyone have imagined that even Abacha was a learner; that, in the camp of the ‘progressives’ was the ultimate idán gangan? Who cares about food on the table of voters, or jobs, or good hospitals, or fuel prices? All steakholders – sorry, stakeholders – have been taken care of one way or another. The state is me! L’etat, c’est moi! Pure genius!!”

Dr. Lasisi is the Saturday Editor of Nigerian Tribune, and a columnist in the same newspaper. This publication is permitted by the author – Dr. Lasisi Olagunju.