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Why Soaring Diesel Prices Will Affect Fuel Hike – Experts

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Analysts at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise have said that the soaring cost of diesel is expected to accelerate inflationary pressure on the economy to the extent that the recent increase in the price of petrol may not be immediately felt.

Report had it earlier that Premium Motor Spirit, popularly known as petrol, would now be sold between N170/litre and N190/litre in filling stations across the country, following what is believed to be a subtle agreement between Federal Government officials and oil marketers.

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The increase follows weeks of scarcity which have led to fare hikes across major cities in the country. During this time, fuel marketers had insisted that it was no longer sustainable to distribute the product at its N165/Litre benchmark and only a price review would fix the supply chain crisis.

Speaking on how the hike would affect organised businesses, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, described the decision by the oil marketers and the Federal Government as a necessary compromise that would prevent a complete collapse of the supply chain.

Asked if the new pump price might trigger higher prices in the marketplace, Yusuf said, “Not necessarily, because, before now, the disruption that had been created by the inability of the marketers to distribute at N165 had already pushed the price above N200. Outside Lagos and Abuja, I can tell you that people are buying fuel for N190, N200 plus. If you compare that to the N180 that is now the benchmark, people are still better off. In terms of the impact on price, I don’t see any considerable adverse effect that this will have compared to when you allow the system to collapse completely.”

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READ ALSO: Marketers Threaten To Halt Fuel Supply In North-West States Over N40bn Debt

Also speaking, the Deputy-President of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Mr Gabriel Idahosa, said the inflation that was already being created by the significant increase in prices of diesel and kerosene would naturally eclipse the marginal increase in the price of PMS.

He said, “Because the diesel price has gone so high already, the fuel price increase from N165 to N180 may only reflect in some movements in the general public transportation who use petrol for their vehicles, but in terms of any significant impact on inflation, it will not be there.”

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NNPCL Reduces Fuel Price After Dangote Refinery’s Adjustment

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The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reduced its premium motor spirit pump price on Thursday, according to DAILY POST.

It was confirmed that NNPCL retail outlets in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, have reduced their pump price to N890 per litre from N945.

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This new fuel price has been reflected in NNPCL retail outlets such as mega station Danziyal Plaza, Central Area, Wuse Zone 4, Wuse Zone 6, and other of its filling stations in the nation’s capital.

READ ALSO:N5bn Damage: NNPCL Secures Appeal Court Victory Against Ararume

The latest downward review of fuel price in NNPCL outlets represents an N55 reduction in fuel pump price.

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It was reduced to N890 per litre this afternoon, down from N945,” an NNPCL fuel attendant told DAILY POST anonymously on Thursday.

This comes a Nigerian filling station, MRS Empire Energy, on Thursday adjusted their fuel pump price to N885 and N946 per litre, down from N910 and N955 per litre.

The latest fuel price reduction trend is unconnected to Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot petrol price adjustment by N30 to N820 per litre from N850 and the price of crude oil in the international market.

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Dangote Refinery Reduces Fuel Price

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a reduction in the ex-depot (gantry) price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, commonly known as petrol, by N30, from N850 to N820 per litre, effective from August 12, 2025.

This was disclosed in a statement by the company’s spokesman, Anthony Chijiena, on Tuesday.

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The 650,000-barrel-per-day plant said the move is part of its unwavering commitment to national development, assuring the public of a consistent and uninterrupted supply of petroleum products.

READ ALSO:Dangote Refinery Gets New CEO

In line with our dedication to operational excellence and sustainable energy solutions, Dangote Petroleum Refinery will commence the phased deployment of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks for fuel distribution across Nigeria, effective August 15, 2025,” said Chijiena.

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The announcement comes as the refinery prepares to commence direct fuel distribution nationwide. The development is expected to lead petroleum product marketers to reduce their pump prices in the coming days.

In Abuja, the retail fuel price stood between N885 and N970 per litre as of Tuesday evening.

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Indian Refiners Abandon Russia For Nigerian Crude, As Dangote Refinery Relies On US

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India Refineries have abandoned Russian crude for Nigerian crude, while domestic refiner Dangote Refinery relies heavily on West Texas Intermediate crude from the United States of America.

This followed a recent sanction threat by US president Donald Trump on India over continued patronage of Russian crude.

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According to Reuters, industry sources said that Indian Oil Corporation recently bought one million barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude for September 2025 delivery in a tender awarded to global trader Trafigura.

Also included are one million barrels of Angola Girassol, one million barrels of US Mars, three million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban, and two million barrels of Nigerian oil, according to Reuters.

READ ALSO:‘My Eyes Dey Your Body’: Drama As Portable Professes Love For Regina Daniels

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The report noted that the purchase is part of a broader sourcing spree that has seen Indian refiners secure millions of barrels from non-Russian sources post July 2025.

Meanwhile, Indian refiners secured purchases of Nigerian crude grades; the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, is relying on around 60 percent on US and other imoorts to feed its processing units.

Data showed that the refinery imported an average of 10 million barrels in July 2025, saying it was increasingly relying on the US for its feedstock despite the naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government, which kicked off in October last year.

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According to Reuters, the Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have bought a million barrels of non-Russian crude billed for delivery in September and October after the US pressured India to halt purchases from Russia.

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Indian state refiners had been largely absent from the Nigerian crude market spotlight since 2022; they have in the past concentrated on Russian crude amid the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, the Indian refiners paused Russian purchases in late July 2025 after pressure from US President Donald Trump.

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On the part of Dangote Refinery, data from commodities analytics firm Kpler showed that in July, US barrels accounted for about 60 percent of Dangote’s 590,000 barrels per day of crude intake, with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40 percent.

In July, the Dangote refinery’s crude imports surged to a record 590 kbd—driven largely by US barrels overtaking Nigerian supply for the first time—amid ongoing domestic sourcing challenges, Kpler reports.

“While WTI has held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, this is the first time US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply—a shift driven by several factors,” Kpler stated.

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