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Nigeria’s Oil Production Crashes To 900,000b/d

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Nigeria’s crude oil revenue has continued to slump as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ newly released Monthly Oil Market Report for September revealed that the country’s crude oil output fell to 900, 000 barrels per day (b/d) last month.

According to the OPEC report, Nigeria’s crude oil production (according to data reported by direct sources) dropped from 1 million b/d recorded in July, to 900, 000b/d in August.

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This is as the price of the country’s crude grade, Bonny Light, also dropped by 10 per cent within the space of one month (July-August). Bonny Light, which was sold for $117/b in July, dropped to $106/b in August.

However, the country’s revenue from crude oil rose significantly year-on-year, as Bonny Light price rose by 64 per cent between 2021 and August 2022.

READ ALSO: Crude Oil Production: Angola, Libya Overtake Nigeria — OPEC Report

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According to the report, the price of Bonny Light as of 2021 was $67 per barrel. However, this increased to $110 per barrel in August 2022.

Bonny Light is a light-sweet crude oil grade produced in Nigeria. It is an important benchmark crude for all West African crude production, and usually $1+ higher than international crude grade, Brent.

Nigeria’s crude oil production has been witnessing significant drops for some years now, as the country last recorded a 1.4mb/d in 2020.

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Production gradually crashed further to 1.3mb/d at the beginning of 2021,and further to 1.2mb/d in the first quarter of this year.

As at the second quarter of this year, output dropped to 1.1mb/d, to 1mb/d in July, and 900, 000b/d last month.

Further checks by The PUNCH revealed that the country’s rig count went from 16 recorded in 2019 to 10 in August 2022.

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Professor of Economics and Public Policy at the University of Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, Akpan Ekpo, told The PUNCH during an interview that despite crude oil retaining 80 per cent of the total trade, Nigeria needed to diversify as oil revenue was no longer reliable.

Oil prices are volatile, and we need to think of other ways to boost revenue,” he said.

This is the U.S oil rig count rose by four to 763 in the preceding week to Sept. 16, its highest since August, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said.

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Baker Hughes said that put the total rig count up to 251, or 49 per cent over this time last year.

OPEC has said demand for its crude in 2023 remained unchanged from the previous MOMR to stand at 29.8 mb/d, which is around 0.9 mb/d higher than in 2022.

Despite the continuous rise in demand for OPEC crude, Nigeria’s low output puts its earnings at risk, as the country has been unable to benefit fully from the rise in demand.

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The Group Chief Executive Officer, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, Mele Kyari, had, in an interview late last month, blamed the country’s low crude oil outputs on theft resulting from pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta.

READ ALSO: Nigeria Loses N101bn Worth Of Oil, OPEC Says

According to him, 295 illegal connections had been located around the pipeline, which, according to him, led to the shutdown of production.

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On his part, Lawyer advising NNPC Ltd on oil and gas projects and transactions and partner at Bloomfield Law Practice, Ayodele Oni, advised the Federal Government to provide solutions to the oil theft challenges bedeviling the country.

PUNCH

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Naira Depreciates Against Dollar

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The Naira experienced a slight depreciation on Friday at the official market, trading at N1,528.56 to the dollar.

Data obtained from the website of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the Naira lost N2.73.

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This represents a 0.17 percent loss compared to the N1,525.82 recorded on Thursday.

READ ALSO:Naira Appreciates At Official Market

The Naira, which opened the week on Monday with a gain of N9.52 against the dollar, held steady gains until Thursday.

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On Wednesday, the local currency gained N3.42 against the dollar and received commendation from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF, in its 2025 Article IV Consultation report on Nigeria, commended the CBN for its reforms to the foreign exchange market, which supported price discovery and liquidity.

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JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Hikes Petrol Ex-depot Price

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Nigerians may soon pay more for petrol as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery on Friday increased its ex-depot price for Premium Motor Spirit to N880 per litre, raising fresh concerns over fuel affordability and price volatility in the downstream sector.

Checks on petroleumprice.ng, a platform tracking daily product prices, and a Pro Forma Invoice seen by The PUNCH confirmed the hike, representing a N55 increase from the previous rate of N825 per litre.

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The increment would ripple across the entire fuel distribution chain, likely pushing pump prices above N900/litre in some parts of the country, especially in areas far from the distribution hubs.

The hike comes despite global crude prices falling. Brent crude dipped by 3.02% to $76.47, WTI fell to $74.93, and Murban dropped to $76.97 on Friday. The decline in benchmarks offers little relief due to persistent fears of sudden supply disruptions.

READ ALSO: JUST IN: Dangote Refinery Sashes Petrol Gantry Price

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The refinery has increased its reliance on imported U.S. crude and operational costs amid exchange rate instability, which adds to its pricing pressure.

On Thursday, the President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, said his 650,000-barrel capacity refinery is “increasingly” relying on the United States for crude oil.

This came as findings showed that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery is projected to import a total of 17.65 million barrels of crude oil between April and July 2025, beginning with about 3.65 million barrels already delivered in the past two months, amid ongoing allocations under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy.

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Dangote informed the Technical Committee of the One-Stop Shop for the sale of crude and refined products in naira initiative that the refinery was still battling crude shortages, which had led it to resort to imports from the United States.

READ ALSO:Dangote Stops Petrol Sale In Naira, Gives Condition For Resumption

On Monday, the president of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, Festus Osifo, accused oil marketers of exploiting Nigerians through inflated petrol prices, insisting that the current pump price of PMS should range between N700 and N750 per litre.

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He criticised the disparity between falling global crude oil prices and the stagnant retail price of petrol in Nigeria.

“If you go online and check the PLAT cost per cubic metre of PMS, convert that to litres and then to our Naira, you will see that with crude at around $60 per barrel, petrol should be retailing between N700 and N750 per litre.”

He asserted that if Nigerians bear the brunt of higher fuel costs, they should be allowed to enjoy the benefit of low pricing.

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His forecast of increased costs now appears spot on, considering the latest developments.

Marketers are already adjusting. Depot owners and fuel distributors in Lagos and other cities anticipate a domino effect, with new price bands expected to follow Dangote’s lead.

Many had held back pricing decisions since Tuesday, when the refinery halted sales and withheld fresh PFIs. The delay fueled speculation, allowing opportunistic price hikes across various depots.

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Naira Appreciates At Official Market

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The Naira, which has seen steady appreciation against the Dollar all week, closed stronger on Friday, trading at ₦1,580.44 in the official forex market.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s website show the Naira gained ₦4.51k against the Dollar on Friday alone.

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This marks a 0.28 per cent appreciation from Thursday’s closing rate of ₦1,584.95 in the official foreign exchange window.

The local currency maintained consistent strength throughout the week, recording gains daily.

READ ALSO: Naira Appreciates Against Dollar At Foreign Exchange Market

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On Monday, May 19, it traded at ₦1,598.68; on Tuesday, at ₦1,590.45; and on Wednesday, at ₦1,584.49.

These gains suggest increased investor confidence and improved forex supply, contributing to the naira’s performance.

Meanwhile, the CBN, at its 300th Monetary Policy Committee meeting held Monday and Tuesday, retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 27.5 per cent.

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