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Petrol Price May Crash to N300/Litre If…– Modular Refineries

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The pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, popularly called petrol, should drop to about N300/litre upon the commencement of massive production by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and other indigenous producers, operators of modular refineries stated on Sunday.

However, they pointed out that this would be achieve when the government ensures the provision of adequate crude oil to local refiners, stressing that refineries abroad were ripping off Nigeria.

Speaking under the aegis of the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria, they explained that what happened to the cost of diesel after Dangote started producing it, would happen to petrol price once it is being produced massively in Nigeria.

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CORAN is a registered association of modular and conventional refinery companies in Nigeria.

“A lot of companies today benefit from the importation of petroleum products at the expense of Nigerians,” the Publicity Secretary, CORAN, Eche Idoko, stated.

He told The PUNCH that “if we begin to produce PMS today in large volumes, provided there is adequate crude oil supply, I can assure that we should be able to buy PMS at N300/litre as the pump price.

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“Why make Nigerians buy it at almost N700/litre when you know that if you allow refineries work the price will come down? Is it because you want to satisfy the global refiners abroad that are making so much from us?”

When told that there are arguments that it is not possible to have such a drop in price because crude oil, the raw material for PMS, is price in dollars, the CORAN official insisted that petrol price would crash once it is being produced massively by indigenous refiners.

He said, “We were selling diesel for N1,700 to N1,800/litre, but as soon as Dangote refinery started production he brought down the price to N1,200/litre. What other proofs do you need?

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“As I speak to you now there is every tendency that before December diesel price will drop further. The only reason reason why diesel is not doing below N1,000/litre is because of our exchange rate.

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“If the exchange rate drops, diesel will drop below the N1,000/litre price. Now the exchange rate concern is because Dangote imports crude. If he is not importing, the exchange rate may not have so much effect, though he is still buying crude in dollars (in Nigeria) anyway.”

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On May 18, 2024, The PUNCH reported that Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, stated that following the laid-down plans of the Dangote refinery, Nigeria would no longer need to import petrol starting June this year.

Dangote had also stated that his refinery could meet West Africa’s petrol and diesel needs, as well as the continent’s aviation fuel demand. He spoke at the Africa CEO Forum Annual Summit in Kigali, expressing optimism about transforming Africa’s energy landscape.

“Right now, Nigeria has no cause to import anything apart from gasoline (petrol) and by sometime in June, within the next four or five weeks, Nigeria shouldn’t import anything like gasoline; not one drop of a litre,” the billionaire had declared.

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Also, Dangote had earlier in the year crashed the pump price of diesel to N1,200/litre when the commodity was selling at between N1,700 and N1,800/litre at the time.

He further dropped the price to below N1,000/litre, but could not sustain this price due to the rise in exchange rate. The refinery eventually returned the price to the initial rate of N1,200/litre.

Speaking on Sunday, the CORAN spokesperson stated that this was why the modular refiners had been calling for the sale of crude oil at the naira equivalent of the dollar rate.

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“We have told them (government) that even the dollars that you are asking us to use and buy this product, it is detrimental to the country. Strengthen the naira. We will buy at the international market rate, but at a naira equivalent.

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“These are the issues and they know these things but we can’t explain why they really can’t take decisions to change these concerns.

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“Get crude to local refineries, allow crude purchase in naira equivalent, make the environment business-friendly and watch locally produced petroleum product prices crash,” Idoko stated.

Nigeria currently has 25 licensed modular refineries. Five of them are operating and producing diesel, kerosene, black oil and naphtha. About 10 are under various stages of completion, while the others have received licences to establish.

Operators of modular refineries earlier stated that aside from the five that are in operation currently, the remaining plants are embattled due to the major challenge of crude oil unavailability, a development that has stalled funding from financiers.

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“Only about five of our members have completed their refineries. The others are having a major challenge.

“This challenge is that the people who are supposed to finance them have not disbursed financing for construction because they want some level of guarantee.

“A guarantee that if they finish the refinery, they are going to get feedstock, which, of course, is crude oil,” Idoko had explained.

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Oil marketers also believe that the cost of petrol should be lower than its current price once its production begins in Nigeria.

They welcomed the comment of Dangote that his refinery should start pumping out petrol this month, and expressed hope that the cost would be less than the price which the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited currently sells.

“We expect a reduced price for locally produced PMS, as I’ve earlier told you,” the National President, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abubakar Maigandi, stated.

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Maigandi, while speaking from Saudi Arabia with The PUNCH, also stated no date has been communicated to marketers on when Dangote would release petrol to the market. Officials of Dangote refinery have remained mute on this.

“It is a welcome development if the refinery can start releasing PMS this month because as marketers we are currently set to start buying the product from the plant,” Maigandi stated.

The IPMAN president earlier stated that marketers were discussing with the managers of the plant, but not specifically on petrol pricing.

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“We have been discussing, but not about the price of petrol yet, rather on other matters such as the registration of members for the purchase of petrol and diesel from the refinery.

“It is true that we have started buying diesel from them, but you have to register with the company first. So a general registration is ongoing,” he explained.

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Maigandi, however, stated that though marketers had yet to receive the projected price for petrol from the plant, dealers would want to see a PMS price of about N500/litre from the Dangote refinery.

“We are looking at having it (PMS) at any price below the NNPC rate. The price which NNPC sells petrol is N565.50/litre, so we are expecting something below that price, maybe around N500/litre,” Maigandi stated.

The oil dealers also joined in the call for the provision of crude oil to local refiners, stressing that this would impact positively on the prices of refined petroleum products.

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“Of course, it is important for crude to be made available to local refineries because this will surely affect petroleum products’ prices positively,” the IPMAN president stated.

Regulators speak

The spokesperson of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, George Ene-Ita, said he was sure that the government has guidelines for the provision of feedstock (crude) to indigenous refiners.

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Ene-Ita promised to provide additional information on the matter, as he stated that he could not give further details at the time he was contacted by our correspondent.

Recall that the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, Gbenga Komolafe, had earlier promised that the government would ensure that crude oil was supplied to domestic refiners.

He stated that in compliance with the provisions of Section 109(2) of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, the NUPRC in a landmark move, had developed a template guiding the activities for Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation.

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“The commission in conjunction with relevant stakeholders from NNPC Upstream Investment Management Services, representatives of Crude Oil/Condensate Producers, Crude Oil Refinery-Owners Association of Nigeria, and Dangote Petroleum Refinery came up with the template for the buy-in of all.

“This is in a bid to foster a seamless implementation of the DCSO and ensure consistent supply of crude oil to domestic refineries,” Komolafe had stated.

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Thousands Reported To Have Fled DR Congo Fighting As M23 Closes On Key City

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Fierce fighting rocked the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo on Tuesday as the Rwanda-backed M23 militia rapidly advanced towards the strategic city of Uvira, with tens of thousands of people fleeing over the nearby border into Burundi, sources said.

The armed group and its Rwandan allies were just a few kilometres (miles) north of Uvira, security and military sources told AFP.

The renewed violence undermined a peace agreement brokered by US President Donald Trump that Kinshasa and Kigali signed less than a week ago, on December 4.

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Trump had boasted that the Rwanda-DRC conflict was one of eight he has ended since returning to power in America in January.

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With the new fighting, more than 30,000 people have fled the area around Uvira for Burundi in the space of a week, a UN source and a Burundian administrative source told AFP.

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The Burundian source told AFP on condition of anonymity he had recorded more than 8,000 daily arrivals over the past two days, and 30,000 arrivals in one week. A source in the UN refugee agency confirmed the figure.

The Rwanda-backed M23 offensive comes nearly a year after the group seized control of Goma and Bukavu, the two largest cities in eastern DRC, a strategic region rich in natural resources and plagued by conflict for 30 years.

Local people described a state of growing panic as bombardments struck the hills above Uvira, a city of several hundred thousand residents.

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Three bombs have just exploded in the hills. It’s every man for himself,” said one resident reached by telephone.

READ ALSO:South Africa Beat DR Congo In shootout To Finish Third At AFCON

We are all under the beds in Uvira — that’s the reality,” another resident said, while a representative of civil society who would not give their name described fighting on the city’s outskirts.

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Fighting was also reported in Runingo, another small locality some 20 kilometres (12 miles) from Uvira, as the M23 and the Rwandan army closed in.

Burundi views the prospect of Uvira falling to Rwanda-backed forces as an existential threat, given that it sits across Lake Tanganyika from Burundi’s economic capital Bujumbura.

The city is the main sizeable locality in the area yet to fall to the M23 and its capture would essentially cut off the zone from DRC control.

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Burundi deployed about 10,000 soldiers to eastern DRC in October 2023 as part of a military cooperation agreement, and security sources say reinforcements have since taken that presence to around 18,000 men.

The M23 and Rwandan forces launched their Uvira offensive on December 1.

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Rich in natural resources, eastern DRC has been choked by successive conflicts for around three decades.

Violence in the region intensified early this year when M23 fighters seized the key eastern city of Goma in January, followed by Bukavu, capital of South Kivu province, a few weeks later.

– Regional risk –

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The peace deal meant to quell the fighting was signed last Thursday in Washington by Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and his Rwandan counterpart Paul Kagame, with Trump — who called it a “miracle” deal — also putting his signature to it.

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The agreement includes an economic component intended to secure US supplies of critical minerals present in the region, as America seeks to challenge China’s dominance in the sector.

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But even on the day of the signing, intense fighting took place in South Kivu, where Uvira is located, which included the bombing of houses and schools.

Witnesses and military sources in Uvira said that Congolese soldiers fleeing the fighting had arrived in the city overnight Monday and shops were looted at dawn.

Several hundred Congolese and Burundian soldiers had already fled to Burundi on Monday, according to military sources, since the M23 fighters embarked on their latest offensive from Kamanyola, some 70 kilometres north of Uvira.
Since the M23’s lightning offensive early this year, the front had largely stabilised over the past nine months.

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Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye warned in February there was a danger of the conflict escalating into a broader regional war, a fear echoed by the United Nations.

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‘Santa Claus’ Arrested For Possessing, Distributing Child Sexual Abuse Material

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A 64-year-old man from Hamilton Township has been arrested in the United States after investigators linked him to the possession and distribution of child sexual abuse material.

The suspect, identified as Mark Paulino, had been working as a “Santa for hire” at holiday events, a role that placed him in repeated contact with children.

Mercer County officials said the investigation began on 4 December when detectives were alerted to suspicious online activity involving the uploading of child pornography from a residence in Hamilton Township. The probe quickly identified Paulino, a retired elementary school teacher, as the person involved.

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Police stated that Paulino had presented himself online as a retired teacher and had recently performed as Santa Claus for photographs and private, corporate, and organisational events. “Because this role involved direct, repeated contact with children, detectives worked around the clock to secure a search warrant,” authorities explained.

The warrant was executed on 5 December, during which police seized multiple items regarded as evidentiary. Paulino was taken into custody without incident and charged with possession and distribution of child sexual abuse materials, as well as endangering the welfare of a child.

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Prosecutors have filed a motion to detain him pending trial. The investigation remains ongoing, and authorities have urged members of the public with relevant information to come forward.

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Why West African Troops Overturned Benin’s Coup But Watched Others Pass

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When Benin’s government over the weekend fought back a coup attempt, they had unlikely help: troops and air strikes from neighbouring countries.

West Africa has seen a series of coups over the past five years, leaving critics to cast the regional political bloc ECOWAS as having little more than stern communiques at its disposal to stop them.

But in Benin, Nigerian jets and troops were quickly dispatched to help their smaller neighbour foil the putsch attempt, while the Economic Community of West African States promised more were on their way, from Ghana, Ivory Coast and Sierra Leone.

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Multiple factors were at play, analysts, diplomats and government officials told AFP, from the critical period where President Patrice Talon remained in partial control of his country and loyal army forces to the high economic and political stakes — especially for regional power Nigeria — of a country like Benin falling under a junta.

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Perhaps most important was the fact that Talon was not taken prisoner as the soldiers declared their takeover, and was able to call on Nigeria — and presumably ECOWAS directly — for assistance.

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The Nigerian presidency said that Benin’s foreign ministry requested air support.

A source within ECOWAS told AFP meanwhile that regional leaders, including the presidents of Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Sierra Leone decided “to stand firm and not repeat their error in Niger”.

The toppling of the civilian government in Niamey in 2023 sparked sanctions and threats of military intervention.

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The isolation — and empty threats — potentially exacerbated the situation: the junta not only remains in place but left ECOWAS and formed the Alliance of Sahel States with fellow breakaway nations Burkina Faso and Mali, also under military control.

READ ALSO:Coup In Guinea-Bissau? Soldiers Deployed Near Presidential Palace After Gunfire

– Nigerian security, economic links –

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While pushing back on the coup offered an opening for Nigeria to regain a bit of its lost diplomatic shine of decades past, when it was a regional and continental heavyweight, there were also tangible economic and security reasons to intervene, analysts said.

Unrest in Benin poses a direct risk to Nigeria’s economic and security priorities,” motivating a “fast Nigerian-fronted ECOWAS reaction,” Usman Ibrahim, a Nigerian security analyst at SARI Global, told AFP.

A former west African government minister said that the ECOWAS intervention heavily “depended on Nigeria’s willingness.”

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Benin, like Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, is battling jihadist insurgents in its north.

In October, jihadists from the Al-Qaeda affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) claimed their first attack in Nigeria last month, appearing to have crossed from the Beninese border.

READ ALSO:Coup Prophecy: It’s False Spirit -Mahdi Shehu Tells Primate Ayodele

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“If the military takes over and mismanages the security situation… it’s a front in western Nigeria that the Tinubu administration has to address at a time when the international spotlight is obviously on Nigeria’s national security predicament,” said Ryan Cummings, director of Signal Risk, referencing a recent US diplomatic offensive against Nigeria over the handling of its own myriad conflicts.

Analysts also pointed out that Nigeria’s apparent lead in shoring up the pro-western civilian government of Benin, a former French colony, comes at a time when Abuja and Paris are increasing security ties.

“Troops were mobilised rapidly and Paris decided to support the operation,” the ECOWAS source said.

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At the request of the Beninese authorities, France provided “in terms of surveillance, observation and logistical” assistance to the Benin armed force, an aide to President Emmanuel Macron told reporters Tuesday.

– Breakaway juntas –

Another likely worry was whether the putschists in Benin would join the AES, who maintain uneasy relations with their neighbours, said Nnamdi Obasi, senior Nigeria adviser at International Crisis Group.

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But while some within and outside ECOWAS have painted the response to the coup in Benin as a turning point for ECOWAS, others aren’t convinced.

Critics often point out that ECOWAS does little when civilian presidents cement their rule without military means — extending term limits, altering the constitution to stay in power or cracking down on dissent.

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Just last month, a coup in Guinea Bissau attracted the typical diplomatic-only playbook of harsh statements and communiques.

Guinea Bissau has fallen under military rule five times, and the latest putsch is suspected to have been ordered by the president himself — a “tough situation to handle”, noted Confidence MacHarry of SBM Intelligence.

Benin also commands a certain “prestige” as a “stable democracy in West Africa”, said analyst Ibrahim.

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The reaction to events in Benin does not firmly establish a novel or uniform protocol for ECOWAS,” Ibrahim said. “Rather, it underscores the continued selective and politically calculated nature of its engagements.”
(AFP)

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