Business
Why Commodity Prices’ll Remain High In Nigeria, Others – World Bank
Published
3 years agoon
By
Editor
The World Bank has said that the war in Ukraine has dealt a major shock to commodity markets, altering global patterns of trade, production, and consumption in ways that will keep prices at historically high levels through the end of 2024.
The World Bank said this in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report.
According to a new report by the Washington-based bank titled, “Food and energy price shocks from Ukraine war could last for years,” the increase in energy prices over the past two years had been the largest since the 1973 oil crisis. Price increases for food commodities—of which Russia and Ukraine are large producers—and fertilizers, which relied on natural gas as a production input, had been the largest since 2008.
“Overall, this amounts to the largest commodity shock we’ve experienced since the 1970s. As was the case then, the shock is being aggravated by a surge in restrictions in the trade of food, fuel and fertilizers,” said the World Bank’s Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions, Indemit Gill
“These developments have started to raise the spectre of stagflation. Policymakers should take every opportunity to increase economic growth at home and avoid actions that will bring harm to the global economy.”
According to the report, energy prices were expected to rise more than 50 per cent in 2022 before easing in 2023 and 2024. Non-energy prices, including agriculture and metals, are projected to increase almost 20 per cent in 2022 and will also moderate in the following years.
READ ALSO: Debt, Inflation Affecting Global Growth – World Bank
Nevertheless, commodity prices are expected to remain well above the most recent five-year average. In the event of a prolonged war or additional sanctions on Russia, prices could be even higher and more volatile than currently projected.
Because of war-related trade and production disruptions, the World Bank predicts the price of Brent crude oil at an average of $100 a barrel in 2022, its highest level since 2013 and an increase of more than 40 per cent compared to 2021. Prices are expected to moderate to $92 in 2023—well above the five-year average of $60 a barrel. Natural gas prices (European) are expected to be twice as high in 2022 as they were in 2021, while coal prices are expected to be 80 per cent higher, with both prices at all-time highs.
“Commodity markets are experiencing one of the largest supply shocks in decades because of the war in Ukraine,” said Director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group, Ayhan Jose, which produces the Outlook report.
“The resulting increase in food and energy prices is taking a significant human and economic toll—and it will likely stall progress in reducing poverty. Higher commodity prices exacerbate already elevated inflationary pressures around the world.”
The report said wheat prices were forecast to increase more than 40 per cent, reaching an all-time high in nominal terms this year. That will put pressure on developing economies that rely on wheat imports, especially from Russia and Ukraine. Metal prices are projected to increase by 16 per cent in 2022 before easing in 2023 but will remain at elevated levels.
“Commodity markets are under tremendous pressure, with some commodity prices reaching all-time highs in nominal terms,” said Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Prospects Group, John Baffes.
“This will have lasting knock-on effects. The sharp rise in input prices, such as energy and fertilizers, could lead to a reduction in food production particularly in developing economies. Lower input use will weigh on food production and quality, affecting food availability, rural incomes, and the livelihoods of the poor.”
PUNCH.
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Business
NNPCL Reduces Fuel Price After Dangote Refinery’s Adjustment
Published
1 week agoon
August 14, 2025By
Editor
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reduced its premium motor spirit pump price on Thursday, according to DAILY POST.
It was confirmed that NNPCL retail outlets in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, have reduced their pump price to N890 per litre from N945.
This new fuel price has been reflected in NNPCL retail outlets such as mega station Danziyal Plaza, Central Area, Wuse Zone 4, Wuse Zone 6, and other of its filling stations in the nation’s capital.
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The latest downward review of fuel price in NNPCL outlets represents an N55 reduction in fuel pump price.
“It was reduced to N890 per litre this afternoon, down from N945,” an NNPCL fuel attendant told DAILY POST anonymously on Thursday.
This comes a Nigerian filling station, MRS Empire Energy, on Thursday adjusted their fuel pump price to N885 and N946 per litre, down from N910 and N955 per litre.
The latest fuel price reduction trend is unconnected to Dangote Refinery’s ex-depot petrol price adjustment by N30 to N820 per litre from N850 and the price of crude oil in the international market.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has announced a reduction in the ex-depot (gantry) price of Premium Motor Spirit, PMS, commonly known as petrol, by N30, from N850 to N820 per litre, effective from August 12, 2025.
This was disclosed in a statement by the company’s spokesman, Anthony Chijiena, on Tuesday.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day plant said the move is part of its unwavering commitment to national development, assuring the public of a consistent and uninterrupted supply of petroleum products.
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“In line with our dedication to operational excellence and sustainable energy solutions, Dangote Petroleum Refinery will commence the phased deployment of 4,000 CNG-powered trucks for fuel distribution across Nigeria, effective August 15, 2025,” said Chijiena.
The announcement comes as the refinery prepares to commence direct fuel distribution nationwide. The development is expected to lead petroleum product marketers to reduce their pump prices in the coming days.
In Abuja, the retail fuel price stood between N885 and N970 per litre as of Tuesday evening.
Business
Indian Refiners Abandon Russia For Nigerian Crude, As Dangote Refinery Relies On US
Published
2 weeks agoon
August 11, 2025By
Editor
India Refineries have abandoned Russian crude for Nigerian crude, while domestic refiner Dangote Refinery relies heavily on West Texas Intermediate crude from the United States of America.
This followed a recent sanction threat by US president Donald Trump on India over continued patronage of Russian crude.
According to Reuters, industry sources said that Indian Oil Corporation recently bought one million barrels of Nigeria’s Agbami crude for September 2025 delivery in a tender awarded to global trader Trafigura.
Also included are one million barrels of Angola Girassol, one million barrels of US Mars, three million barrels of Abu Dhabi Murban, and two million barrels of Nigerian oil, according to Reuters.
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The report noted that the purchase is part of a broader sourcing spree that has seen Indian refiners secure millions of barrels from non-Russian sources post July 2025.
Meanwhile, Indian refiners secured purchases of Nigerian crude grades; the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos, is relying on around 60 percent on US and other imoorts to feed its processing units.
Data showed that the refinery imported an average of 10 million barrels in July 2025, saying it was increasingly relying on the US for its feedstock despite the naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government, which kicked off in October last year.
According to Reuters, the Indian Oil Corp and Bharat Petroleum have bought a million barrels of non-Russian crude billed for delivery in September and October after the US pressured India to halt purchases from Russia.
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Indian state refiners had been largely absent from the Nigerian crude market spotlight since 2022; they have in the past concentrated on Russian crude amid the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, the Indian refiners paused Russian purchases in late July 2025 after pressure from US President Donald Trump.
On the part of Dangote Refinery, data from commodities analytics firm Kpler showed that in July, US barrels accounted for about 60 percent of Dangote’s 590,000 barrels per day of crude intake, with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40 percent.
In July, the Dangote refinery’s crude imports surged to a record 590 kbd—driven largely by US barrels overtaking Nigerian supply for the first time—amid ongoing domestic sourcing challenges, Kpler reports.
“While WTI has held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, this is the first time US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply—a shift driven by several factors,” Kpler stated.
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